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Estimating climatic controls of forest plants in East Asia and predicting their distribution changes in the past, present and future

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15H02833
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Environmental impact assessment
Research InstitutionTokyo University of Agriculture (2016-2019)
Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (2015)

Principal Investigator

TANAKA Nobuyuki  東京農業大学, 国際食料情報学部, 教授 (80353762)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 松井 哲哉  国立研究開発法人森林研究・整備機構, 森林総合研究所, 主任研究員 等 (20414493)
比嘉 基紀  高知大学, 教育研究部自然科学系理工学部門, 講師 (60709385)
Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,870,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Keywords分布予測モデル / 生態系保全 / モニタリング / 気候温暖化 / 潜在生育域 / 植物生態学 / 適応策 / 脆弱性 / 気候変動 / 国際協力 / 地理情報システム(GIS) / 環境 / 林学 / 地理情報システム(GIS)
Outline of Final Research Achievements

By constructing predictive distribution models for plant species in East Asia, the objectives of this study are to elucidate conditions limiting their distributions, to project their potential habitats in the past, present and future, and to identify the areas important for their conservation. We conducted joint research with research institutes in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia. Models were constructed for the following plant species/communities which are important for biodiversity conservation: 1) subalpine coniferous forests in Yunnan Province, 2) the Tertiary relict handkerchief tree distributed in southern China, and 3) dahurian birch, one of the dominant tree species in Northeast Asia.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

現在、地球は急激な気候変化の影響を受けている。人類はこの気候変化の悪影響をできるだけ減らすための適応策を実行していく必要がある。気候変化の生態系への影響は、不明な点が多く、生物の絶滅など悪影響が顕在化した時は手遅れの場合がある。そのため気候変化影響を予測し、適切な適応を行うための研究が必要である。本研究は樹木の分布変化を過去から将来にわたって推定する技術を開発し、樹木の分布の成因や将来予測を行い、適切な適応策の策定に貢献する。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (40 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (14 results) Journal Article (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 9 results,  Open Access: 6 results) Presentation (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] ロシア科学アカデミー植物園(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 北京大学/雲南大学/国立台湾大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国立樹木園/生物資源研究館(韓国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ロシア科学アカデミー植物園(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 北京大学/雲南大学/国立台湾大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国立樹木園/生物資源研究館(韓国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ロシア科学アカデミー植物園(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 北京大学/雲南大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国立樹木園/生物資源研究館(韓国)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国立台湾大学/国立嘉義大学(台湾)

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ロシア科学アカデミー植物園(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 北京大学/雲南大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国立樹木園/生物資源研究所(韓国)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 国立台湾大学(台湾)

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 気候変動とブナ林2020

    • Author(s)
      松井哲哉
    • Journal Title

      北方林業

      Volume: 71 Pages: 15-20

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Formation of disjunct plant distributions in Northeast Asia: a case study of Betula davurica using a species distribution model2018

    • Author(s)
      Shitara T, Nakamura Y, Matsui T, Tsuyama I, Haruka O, Kamijo T.
    • Journal Title

      Plant Ecology

      Volume: 219 Pages: 1105-1115

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Potential impact of climate change on canopy tree species composition of cool-temperate forests in Japan using a multivariate classification tree model2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsui T, Nakao K, Higa M, Tsuyama I, Kominami Y, Yagihashi T, Koide D, Tanaka N
    • Journal Title

      Ecological Research

      Volume: 33 Issue: 2 Pages: 289-302

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11284-018-1576-2

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 日本の寒帯・亜寒帯性針葉樹の分布と気候変動影響2018

    • Author(s)
      松井哲哉, 田中信行, 津山幾太郎
    • Journal Title

      生物の科学 遺伝

      Volume: 72 Pages: 70-78

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Vulnerability of subalpine fir species to climate change: using species distribution modeling to assess the future efficiency of current protected areas in the Korean Peninsula2018

    • Author(s)
      Yun J-H, Nakao, K, Tsuyama, I., Matsui, T., Park C-H, Lee B-Y, Tanaka, N.
    • Journal Title

      Ecological Research

      Volume: 33 Issue: 2 Pages: 341-350

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11284-018-1581-5

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China2017

    • Author(s)
      Cindy Q. Tang, Yi-Fei Dong, Sonia Herrando-Moraira, Tetsuya Matsui, Haruka Ohashi, Long-Yuan He, Katsuhiro Nakao, Nobuyuki Tanaka, Mizuki Tomita, Xiao-Shuang Li, Hai-Zhong Yan, Ming-Chun Peng, Jun Hu, Ruo-Han Yang, Wang-Jun Li, Kai Yan, Xiuli Hou, Zhi-Ying Zhang & Jordi Lopez-Pujol
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 43822-43822

    • DOI

      10.1038/srep43822

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 地球温暖化と野生植物2017

    • Author(s)
      田中信行
    • Journal Title

      花の友

      Volume: 137 Pages: 1-4

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 日本列島の森林生態系と気候変動2017

    • Author(s)
      松井哲哉
    • Journal Title

      グリーンエージ

      Volume: 44 Pages: 4-7

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Effects of climate change on potential habitats of the cold temperate coniferous forest in Yunnan province, southwestern China2016

    • Author(s)
      Li WJ, Peng MC, Higa M, Tanaka N, Matsui T, Tang CQ, Ou XK, Zhou RW, Wang CY, Yan HZ
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Mountain Science

      Volume: 13 Issue: 8 Pages: 1411-1422

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11629-016-3846-1

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Projecting spatiotemporal changes in suitable climate conditions to regenerate trees using niche differences between adult and juvenile trees2016

    • Author(s)
      Koide D, Higa M, Nakao K, Ohashi H, Tsuyama I, Matsui T, Tanaka N
    • Journal Title

      European Journal of Forest Research

      Volume: 135 Issue: 1 Pages: 125-136

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10342-015-0921-z

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evergreen broadleaf forest transition zone changes in Japan from 1961 to 2008 detected by aerial ortho-photos2016

    • Author(s)
      Etsuko Nakazono, Nobuyuki Tanaka, Masatsugu Yasuda, Hiromu Daimaru, Wataru Takeuchi
    • Journal Title

      IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science

      Volume: 37 Pages: 012033-012033

    • DOI

      10.1088/1755-1315/37/1/012033

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 空中写真判続による紫尾山常緑広葉樹の33年間の林冠変化2016

    • Author(s)
      中園悦子・田中信行
    • Journal Title

      関東森林研究

      Volume: 67(1) Pages: 1-4

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 北海道におけるブナの潜在生育域と分布北限個体群の実態2016

    • Author(s)
      田中信行, 井関智裕, 北村系子, 斎藤均, 津山幾太郎, 中尾勝洋, 松井哲哉
    • Journal Title

      森林立地

      Volume: 58(1) Pages: 9-15

    • NAID

      130005529772

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 東アジアにおける気候変化の植物への影響検出モニタリングに関するワークショップ2016

    • Author(s)
      田中信行
    • Journal Title

      海外の森林と林業

      Volume: 95 Pages: 38-42

    • NAID

      130007949660

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 空中写真判読による函南原生林の40 年間の林冠変化2015

    • Author(s)
      中園悦子、武生雅明、田中信行、大丸裕武
    • Journal Title

      東京農業大学農学集報

      Volume: 60(3) Pages: 156-161

    • NAID

      110009994793

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 筑波山ブナ林における2005年~2019年の変化と気候変動影響2020

    • Author(s)
      安保絵梨、津山幾太郎、中園悦子、松井哲哉、竹内渉、田中信行
    • Organizer
      日本生態学会67回大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本と中国に共通して分布するコナラ属樹木の分布特性2019

    • Author(s)
      比嘉基紀、松井哲哉、中尾勝洋、田中信行、Wang Zhiheng
    • Organizer
      植生学会第24回大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Climate change impact on potential habitats of buna (Fagus crenata) and a current migration process in the northernmost population in Japan.2018

    • Author(s)
      Tanaka, N., Kitamura, K., Matsui, T.
    • Organizer
      2018 International Association for Vegetation Science 61st Annual Symposium. Bozeman, Montana, USA. (2018.07)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Factors determining distributions of the vegetation boundary between evergreen and deciduous broad leaved forests in eastern Asia.2018

    • Author(s)
      Higa, M., Matsui, T., Nakao, K., Tanaka, N., Wang, Z.
    • Organizer
      2018 International Association for Vegetation Science 61st Annual Symposium. Bozeman, Montana, USA. (2018.07)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How did disjunct distributions form during the Quaternary climate change in Northeast Asia? - A case study of Betula davurica Pall. using a species distribution model2018

    • Author(s)
      Shitara, T., Nakamura, Y., Matsui, T., Tsuyama, I., Ohashi, H., Kamijo, T.
    • Organizer
      2018 International Association for Vegetation Science 61st Annual Symposium. Bozeman, Montana, USA. (2018.07)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] オリエントブナ(Fagus orientalis)における過去から現在への潜在生育域の分布変遷2018

    • Author(s)
      松井哲哉, Kavgaci, A., 高野宏平, 大橋春香, 平田晶子, Muenever, A., 田中信行
    • Organizer
      日本生態学会第65回全国大会 (2018年3月、札幌)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Climate change impact on the potential habitats of dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the Taiwan-Japan archipelago2017

    • Author(s)
      NAKAO K, Higa M, TSUYAMA I, Lin C-T, Chiou C-RN, Chen T-Y, MATSUI T, TANAKA N
    • Organizer
      IBC2017, ShenZhen, China
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How will subalpine conifer distributions be affected by climate change in Japan?2017

    • Author(s)
      Tsuyama I, Higa M, Nakao K, Matsui T, Horikawa M, Tanaka N
    • Organizer
      IBC2017, ShenZhen, China
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Initiative on establishing vegetation monitoring in response to climate change in East Asia2016

    • Author(s)
      Tanaka, N.
    • Organizer
      The 7th EAFES International Congress (EAFES2016)
    • Place of Presentation
      Daegu, Korea
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-19
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 北上するブナの分布北限・南限. 気候変動の事典2017

    • Author(s)
      田中信行(共著)
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • ISBN
      9784254161298
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Important Plants of East Asia II: Endemic Plant Stories2015

    • Author(s)
      East Asia Biodiversity Conservation Network
    • Total Pages
      232
    • Publisher
      Korea National Arboretum
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2022-11-04  

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