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Development of worst case typhoon-surge model and estimation of its occurrence probability

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15H04048
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Hydraulic engineering
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Mase Hajime  京都大学, 防災研究所, 研究員 (30127138)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 平石 哲也  京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (20371750)
森 信人  京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (90371476)
安田 誠宏  関西大学, 環境都市工学部, 准教授 (60378916)
中條 壮大  大阪市立大学, 大学院工学研究科, 講師 (20590871)
二宮 順一  金沢大学, 環境デザイン学系, 助教 (20748892)
金 洙列  鳥取大学, 工学研究科, 助教 (60508696)
澁谷 容子  鳥取大学, その他部局等, 特命准教授 (10632482)
Research Collaborator SHIBUTANI Yoko  東洋建設, 鳴尾研究所, 研究員
Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥18,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥11,830,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,730,000)
Keywords高潮 / 台風 / 最悪クラス / 東京湾 / 大阪湾 / 伊勢湾 / 気候変動 / 沿岸災害 / 最悪クラス台風・高潮 / 高潮予測モデル / 再現期間・確率
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In order to estimate the worst class typhoon / storm surge targeting the risk management of coastal disasters in Japan, typhoon modeling and storm surges simulation were developed for impact assessment of climate change in coastal zone. Combining two methods, the worst class typhoon and storm surge can be estimated in Japan. Based on the developed method, worst-case typhoons / storm surges were estimated in 3 major bays, Tokyo, Osaka and Ise. The occurrence probability and estimated economic loss were estimated by the model.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Annual Research Report
  • 2015 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (15 results)

All 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 15 results,  Open Access: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 10 results)

  • [Journal Article] Bias correction of simulated storm surge height considering coastline complexity2017

    • Author(s)
      Yang, J., S.Y. Kim, N. Mori and H. Mase
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Research Letters

      Volume: 11 Issue: 2 Pages: 121-127

    • DOI

      10.3178/hrl.11.121

    • NAID

      130005679723

    • ISSN
      1882-3416
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] SST ensemble experiment-based impact assessment of climate change on storm surge caused by pseudo-global warming - Case study of Typhoon Vera in 19592017

    • Author(s)
      Ninomiya, J., N. Mori, T. Takemi and O. Arakawa
    • Journal Title

      Coastal Engineering Journal

      Volume: 59 Issue: 2 Pages: 1740002-1740002

    • DOI

      10.1142/s0578563417400022

    • NAID

      120006370946

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 海岸線の複雑度を考慮した高潮偏差の誤差補正とd4PDFを用いた高潮偏差の長期評価2017

    • Author(s)
      梁 靖雅・間瀬 肇・森 信人
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 73(2)

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 狩野川台風のバリエーションに基づく東京湾の高潮と浸水範囲におよぼす気候変動の感度評価2017

    • Author(s)
      澁谷容子・森 信人・金 洙列・中條壮大・間瀬 肇
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 73(2)

    • NAID

      130006171783

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 第二室戸台風にもとづく大阪湾の高潮と浸水範囲におよぼす気候変動の感度評価2016

    • Author(s)
      澁谷容子, 中條壮大, 金洙列, 森信人, 間瀬肇
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 72

    • NAID

      130005282338

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 確率台風モデル, 高潮モデルおよびニューラルネットワークを用いた高潮偏差の長期評価2016

    • Author(s)
      岩部紫織, 森信人, 中條壮大, 安田誠宏, 間瀬肇
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 72

    • NAID

      130005282224

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] MRI-AGCM3.2H アンサンブル実験を用いた高潮の将来変化予測に関する研究2016

    • Author(s)
      安田誠宏, 山本耀介, 森信人, 間瀬肇
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 72

    • NAID

      130005282230

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 台風の最大潜在強度にもとづく高潮偏差の長期変動評価2016

    • Author(s)
      森信人, 有吉望, 安田誠宏, 間瀬肇
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 72

    • NAID

      130005282228

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 伊勢湾台風の擬似温暖化実験による将来高潮の予測2016

    • Author(s)
      二宮順一, 森信人, 竹見哲也, 荒川理
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 72

    • NAID

      120006464068

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 複数地域での同時被災を考慮した高潮災害の集積リスク評価手法に関する研究2016

    • Author(s)
      辻田大揮, 安田誠宏, 篠原瑞生, 森信人, 間瀬肇
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)

      Volume: 72

    • NAID

      130005282297

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 東京湾における高潮災害ポテンシャルの評価に関する検討2015

    • Author(s)
      中條壮大・藤木秀幸・金洙列・森信人・澁谷容子・安田誠宏
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B2(海岸工学)

      Volume: Vol.71

    • NAID

      130005109320

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 気候モデル台風のバイアス補正手法の開発と高潮の将来変化のアンサンブル予測2015

    • Author(s)
      安田誠宏・片平成明・森 信人・間瀬 肇・澁谷容子
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B2(海岸工学)

      Volume: Vol.71

    • NAID

      130005109379

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 伊勢湾台風を対象とした高潮追算のためのJRA55再解析データの力学的ダウンスケール2015

    • Author(s)
      二宮順一・竹見哲也・森 信人
    • Journal Title

      土木学会論文集B2(海岸工学)

      Volume: Vol.71

    • NAID

      130005109341

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The role of sea surface drag in a coupled surge and wave model for Typhoon Haiyan 20132015

    • Author(s)
      Kim, S., Mori, N., Mase, H. and Yasuda, T.
    • Journal Title

      Jour. Ocean Modelling

      Volume: Vol.96 Pages: 65-84

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The role of sea surface drag in a coupled surge and wave model for Typhoon Haiyan 20132015

    • Author(s)
      Kim, S.Y., N. Mori, H. Mase and T. Yasuda
    • Journal Title

      Ocean Modelling

      Volume: 96 Pages: 65-84

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.06.004

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research

URL: 

Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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