Development of a prediction model program for preventive education by analyzing of herd infection of school infectious disease, internationally.

• Project/Area Number: 15K01656
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Applied health science
• Research Institution: Kagawa University
• Principal Investigator: Kamano Hiroshi 香川大学, 保健管理センター, 教授 (60284337)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
• Keywords: 学校感染症

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we regarded school infectious disease as a social problem, analyzed epidemic, and developed an epidemic-prediction model program for preventive education. We studied the following. (1) Analysis of pertussis outbreak cases in Japan and foreign countries; analysis of pertussis outbreak cases using SIR method; analysis of pertussis outbreak cases using non-linear regression analysis. (2) Analysis of influenza epidemic using non-linear regression analysis; analysis of influenza epidemic using time series analysis and multiple regression analysis. It was found that various environmental factors had important effects on influenza epidemic. It was suggested that epidemic analysis using the environmental factors we could forecast the termination and peak of epidemic more precisely.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本において百日咳患者数は2006年から6年間で約2.7倍になった。米国では2002年より成人百日咳が増加した。英国でも2011年より百日咳患者が急増した。また，2009年にはA(H1N1) 2009インフルエンザが国内外で流行し社会的に大きな脅威となった。本研究では学校感染症を社会問題ととらえ感染症流行の分析，および，シミュレーションを行い予防教育のための流行予測プログラムを作成した。本研究を通して，感染症流行と環境因子との関連性について解明を行った。感染症流行の分析，および，シミュレーションによる感染症流行予測は社会における感染症予防教育に重要な役割を果たすことが示唆された。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] 大学における百日咳集団感染の非線形回帰分析 (2017)
  • Author(s): 鎌野 寛，永尾 幸，高田 純，野崎篤子，泉 慈子，溝口有希子，坂東千秋
  • Journal Title: 香川大学保健管理センター紀要 Volume: 4 Pages: 125-130
• [Presentation] A Multiple Regression Analysis of Pandemic H1N1 2009 Influenza on a University (2018)
  • Author(s): Kamano H，Yokoyama Y, Nagao S
  • Organizer: International Meeting on Emerging Diseases and Surveillance 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Analysis of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza on a university campus using non-linear regression. (2017)
  • Author(s): Kamano H, Nagao S.
  • Organizer: The 6th ESWI Influenza Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Comparative analysis of adolescent-adult pertussis outbreaks in schools using mathematical models (2016)
  • Author(s): Kamano H, Nagao S
  • Organizer: Federation of Infection Societies Annual Conference and the 10th Healthcare Infection Society International Conference 2016
  • Place of Presentation: Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Preventive education for adolescent-adult pertussis (2015)
  • Author(s): H. Kamano, S. Nagao, T. Mori, C. Izumi, A. Nozaki, Y. Mizoguchi, C. Bando, T. Kumano
  • Organizer: 14th European Congress of Internal Medicine
  • Place of Presentation: Moscow
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-14
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] 海外での感染症対策 Infectious Disease & Campus Life 2018 (2018)
  • Author(s): 鎌野寛（分担執筆）
  • Publisher: カマル社