Development of a prediction model program for preventive education by analyzing of herd infection of school infectious disease, internationally.
| Project/Area Number |
15K01656
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Applied health science
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| Research Institution | Kagawa University |
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Principal Investigator |
Kamano Hiroshi 香川大学, 保健管理センター, 教授 (60284337)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
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| Keywords | 学校感染症 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, we regarded school infectious disease as a social problem, analyzed epidemic, and developed an epidemic-prediction model program for preventive education. We studied the following. (1) Analysis of pertussis outbreak cases in Japan and foreign countries; analysis of pertussis outbreak cases using SIR method; analysis of pertussis outbreak cases using non-linear regression analysis. (2) Analysis of influenza epidemic using non-linear regression analysis; analysis of influenza epidemic using time series analysis and multiple regression analysis. It was found that various environmental factors had important effects on influenza epidemic. It was suggested that epidemic analysis using the environmental factors we could forecast the termination and peak of epidemic more precisely.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
日本において百日咳患者数は2006年から6年間で約2.7倍になった。米国では2002年より成人百日咳が増加した。英国でも2011年より百日咳患者が急増した。また，2009年にはA(H1N1) 2009インフルエンザが国内外で流行し社会的に大きな脅威となった。本研究では学校感染症を社会問題ととらえ感染症流行の分析，および，シミュレーションを行い予防教育のための流行予測プログラムを作成した。本研究を通して，感染症流行と環境因子との関連性について解明を行った。感染症流行の分析，および，シミュレーションによる感染症流行予測は社会における感染症予防教育に重要な役割を果たすことが示唆された。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(6 results)
