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Development of mathematical model for dengue transmission and strategical simulations for the control against dengue outbreak

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K04990
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Foundations of mathematics/Applied mathematics
Research InstitutionTokyo Medical and Dental University

Principal Investigator

ISHIKAWA Hirofumi  東京医科歯科大学, 大学院医歯学総合研究科, 非常勤講師 (00108101)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 下河原 理江子  東京医科歯科大学, 医学部, 非常勤講師 (50146776)
Research Collaborator FUEDA Kaori  滋賀大学, データサイエンス学部, 教授
KOBAYASHI Daisuke  国立感染症研究所, 昆虫医科学部, 流動研究員
Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywordsデング熱 / 感染症数理モデル / ヒトスジシマカ / アウトブレイク / リスクアセスメント / 東京 / 不顕性感染 / 東京オリンピック / 確率シミュレーション / 東京代々木公園 / 潜伏期間 / アウトブレーク
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The first outbreak of autochthonous dengue fever in Japan since 1945 was occurred in Yoyogi Park and its vicinity, Tokyo in the summer of 2014, and a total of 160 dengue cases were confirmed. Dengue viruses circulate between humans and Aedes albopictus, which is highly influenced by seasonal factors.
We investigated how the dengue fever outbreak in Yoyogi Park and its vicinity progressed through stochastic simulations on the basis of a mathematical model for transmission of dengue virus. It is necessary for prevention from a large-scale outbreak to detect asymptomatic cases at early stage and reduce the survival rate of Ae. albopictus.
We have misgivings about recurrence of dengue autochthonous infections in near future. In addition, Olympic Games will be held in Tokyo in summer of 2020. This study carried out a risk assessment of autochthonous dengue fever in Tokyo, Japan on the basis of a mathematical model incorporating with seasonal factors.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2017 2015

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (3 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 代々木公園ではどのように2014年デング熱アウトブレイクが進展したのか?―数理モデルによる解析―2017

    • Author(s)
      石川洋文,下河原理江子,笛田薫
    • Journal Title

      日本衛生学雑誌

      Volume: 72 Pages: 55-65

    • NAID

      130005306033

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] デング熱症国内感染発生の危険性についての数理モデル解析 -東京を対象として2017

    • Author(s)
      石川 洋文、下河原 理江子
    • Organizer
      グローバルヘルス合同大会2017、第58回日本熱帯医学会大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Analysis of the dengue outbreak in Tokyo, Japan in 2014 based on a mathematical model2017

    • Author(s)
      Hirofumi Ishikawa, Rieko Shimogawara, Kaoru Fueda
    • Organizer
      Epidemics 6, Sixth International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 2014年東京代々木公園デング熱症アウトブレークに関する数理モデル解析の試み2015

    • Author(s)
      石川 洋文、下河原 理江子、小林 大介、笛田 薫
    • Organizer
      第56回日本熱帯医学会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学コンベンションセンター(大阪府吹田市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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