Micro- and Macro-analysis of Regional Power Markets with Auction Data

• Project/Area Number: 15K13014
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• Principal Investigator: Okamoto Ryosuke 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (60323945)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 田中 誠 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 教授 (10377137) ; 細江 宣裕 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (60313483)
• Research Collaborator: KIDOKORO Yukihiro 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 教授 (90283811) ; IKEDA Shinsuke 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 助教授 (90598567) ; AFZAL Siddiqui University College London, Department of Statistical Science, Senior Lecturer ; CHEN Yishu University of California, Santa Cruz, Department of Technology Management, Associate Professor
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
• Keywords: 電力自由化 / 原発停止 / フィールド実験 / 太陽光発電 / 電力市場 / 原子力発電 / デマンドレスポンス / 電力市場分析 / 電力小売り入札 / 卸市場 / 送電線 / 再生可能エネルギー

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We analyzed the Japanese power markets, facing deregulation, with microdata and simulation models. The 9-region power market model revealed that no-nuke policy would push up the wholesale market prices and that the price hike would be only partly alleviated by installation of thermal power stations that make up the lost nukes, especially during off-peak times/seasons. Field experiments with "prosumers" holding PV system showed that dynamic pricing would lower peak demand only to a smaller extent, compared with usual consumers without PV system.

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] UC, Santa Cruz(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] UC London(英国)
• [Journal Article] A micro foundation for discrete choice models with multiple categories of goods (2016)
  • Author(s): Kidokoro, Y.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Choice Modelling Volume: 19 Pages: 54-72
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2016.07.002
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 原子力発電所停止の影響と火力代替の効果: 季節・時間帯別のシミュレーション分析 (2016)
  • Author(s): 細江宣裕
  • Journal Title: 馬奈木俊介(編著) 『原発事故後のエネルギー供給からみる日本経済: 東日本大震災はいかなる影響をもたらしたのか』, ミネルヴァ書房. Volume: 第2章
  • Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] スマートコミュニティの社会実験から見た経済効果の評価 (2015)
  • Author(s): 依田高典、村上佳世、田中誠
  • Journal Title: 環境情報科学 Volume: 44 Pages: 31-35
• [Journal Article] Nuclear Power Plant Shutdown and Alternative Power Plant Installation Scenarios: A Nine-Region Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of the Electric Power Market in Japan (2015)
  • Author(s): Nobuhiro Hosoe
  • Journal Title: Energy Policy Volume: 86 Pages: 416-432
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.021
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Tradable Performance-based Co2 Emissions Standards: Walking On Thin Ice? (2016)
  • Author(s): Chen, Y., M. Tanaka, and A. Siddiqu
  • Organizer: INFORMS Annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Nashville, Tennessee, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-13
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] On The Inefficiencies Of The Us Federal Clean Power Plan (2016)
  • Author(s): Zhang, D., Y. Chen, and M. Tanaka
  • Organizer: INFORMS Annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Nashville, Tennessee, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-13
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Tradable Performance-based Co2 Emissions Standards: Walking On Thin Ice? (2016)
  • Author(s): Chen, Y., M. Tanaka, and A. Siddiqu
  • Organizer: 39th Annual IAEE International Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Bergen, Norway
  • Year and Date: 2016-06-20
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Book] 原発事故後のエネルギー供給からみる日本経済: 東日本大震災はいかなる影響をもたらしたのか (2016)
  • Author(s): 馬奈木俊介, 北村俊彦, 細江宣裕, 田中誠, 依田高典, 村上佳世, 松川勇, 乾友彦, 枝村一磨, 一宮央樹, 田中健太, 岩田和之, 日引聡, 鶴見哲也
  • Total Pages: 268
  • Publisher: ミネルヴァ書房