Statistical methods to develop and evaluate risk prediction models
Project/Area Number |
15K15956
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
Research Field |
Statistical science
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Research Institution | National Cancer Center Japan |
Principal Investigator |
Kuchiba Aya 国立研究開発法人国立がん研究センター, 研究支援センター, 室長 (40510699)
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Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
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Budget Amount *help |
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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Keywords | 予測モデル / がん罹患 / Calibration / Discrimination / 疫学研究 / がん発症 / 絶対リスク / calibration / discrimination / リスク因子の効果の推定 / リスクの推定 |
Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Recent cancer epidemiology has provided much evidence for cancer risk factors, including environmental, lifestyle and genetic factors. Prediction model to provide the risk of cancer based on the established risk factors, would contribute to developing risk-based prevention or health management strategies. In the research project, the methods to estimate prediction ability of the prediction models has been examined and applied to real epidemiology studies, in particular for data from often-used study designs with biomarker data. The statistical methods for assessing etiologic heterogeneity of a cancer have been developed and applied to the cohort study data as a relevant topic. In addition, new index to evaluate prediction ability for outcome with more than two categories has been proposed and the characteristics of this index have been examined by simulation studies.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(12 results)
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[Journal Article] A Prospective Study of Smoking and Risk of Synchronous Colorectal Cancers2017
Author(s)
Drew DA, Nishihara R, Lochhead P, Kuchiba A, Qian ZR, Mima K, Nosho K, Wu K, Wang M, Giovannucci E, Fuchs CS, Chan AT, Ogino S
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Journal Title
American Journal of Gastroenterology
Volume: 112
Issue: 3
Pages: 493-501
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] Statistical methods for studying disease subtype heterogeneity.2016
Author(s)
Wang, M., Spiegelman, D., Kuchiba, A., Lochhead, P., Kim, S., Chan, A.T., Poole, E.M., Tamimi, R., Tworoger, S.S., Giovannucci, E., Rosner, B., Ogino, S
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Journal Title
Statistics in medicine
Volume: 35
Issue: 5
Pages: 782-800
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
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[Presentation] A prospective study of smoking habit and risk of synchronous colorectal cancers2016
Author(s)
Drew DA, Nishihara R, Lochhead P, Kuchiba A, Qian ZR, Mima K, Nosho K, Wu K, Wang M, Spiegelman D, Giovannucci EL, Fuchs CS, Ogino S, Chan AT
Organizer
AACR Annual Meeting 2016
Place of Presentation
New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
Year and Date
2016-04-16
Related Report
Int'l Joint Research
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