Building population estimation systems for a period of population decline

• Project/Area Number: 15K16883
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Human geography
• Research Institution: Ritsumeikan University (2016-2017); Tohoku University (2015)
• Principal Investigator: HANAOKA KAZUMASA 立命館大学, 文学部, 准教授 (90454511)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
• Keywords: 人口減少 / マイクロデータ / 小地域 / 地理情報システム / 統計分析 / 公的調査 / ビッグデータ / 人口推計 / 人口動態 / 精度評価

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this research project is to build a population estimation system in the population decline period by using a spatial microsimulation method. The method was applied to construct a large scale synthetic population microdata and simulate population dynamics. The major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) synthetic population microdata at the small-area level covering the whole Japan were constructed from anonymized non-geographic census microdata, and (2) logit analyses were applied to model effects of various factors in demographic changes. We further incorporated the results to construct a prototype model for areal population estimation. Our results and applications were presented in several academic journals in the field of geography and demography.

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] ハンガリー科学アカデミー(ハンガリー)
• [Int'l Joint Research] マクマスター大学(カナダ)
• [Journal Article] The Employment Pattern and the Underlying Value Orientation of Japan-born Japanese Wives in the United States: For the Realization of More Sensible Work-Life Balance in Japan (2017)
  • Author(s): 花岡 和聖・リァウカオリー・竹下修子・石川義孝
  • Journal Title: E-journal GEO Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: 101-115
  • DOI: 10.4157/ejgeo.12.101
  • NAID: 130005865630
  • ISSN: 1880-8107
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 小地域人口マイクロデータの推計手法に関する検討 : Iterative Proportional Updatingと焼きなまし法の比較 (2017)
  • Author(s): 花岡和聖
  • Journal Title: 立命館文學 Volume: 650 Pages: 298-309
  • Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] 全国版の小地域マイクロデータの構築と災害分析への活用―国勢調査・匿名データの利用― (2016)
  • Author(s): 花岡和聖
  • Journal Title: 地域安全学会論文集 Volume: 29 Pages: 247-255
  • NAID: 130005893281
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Have destination choices of foreign residents contributed to reducing regional population disparity inJapan? Analysis based on the 2010 population census microdata (2015)
  • Author(s): Kazumasa Hanaoka, Yoshitaka Ishikawa and Shuko Takeshita
  • Journal Title: Population, Space and Place Volume: undecided Issue: 1
  • DOI: 10.1002/psp.1975
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Book] Happiness, Social Cohesion and Income Inequalities in Britain and Japan In Tachibanaki, T. ed. Advances in Happiness Research: A Comparative Perspective (2015)
  • Author(s): Ballas, D., Dorling, D., Nakaya, T., Tunstall, H., Hanaoka, K., Hanibuchi, T.
  • Total Pages: 344
  • Publisher: Springer