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Statistical inference for stochastic processes and application to high-frequency financial data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15K21598
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Foundations of mathematics/Applied mathematics
Economic statistics
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

Teppei Ogihara  統計数理研究所, 数理・推論研究系, 助教 (40746426)

Project Period (FY) 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywords非同期観測 / マイクロストラクチャー・ノイズ / 高頻度データ解析 / 最尤型推定量 / 拡散過程 / 漸近有効性 / 疑似尤度解析 / 積分観測モデル / マイクロストラクチャーノイズ / 積分観測 / 高頻度データ / ベイズ型推定量 / 確率過程
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Statistical inference for diffusion processes with noisy, nonsynchronous observations was studied. This model is applied to high-frequency data in a stock market. A maximum-likelihood- and a Bayes-type estimators were constructed by using a quasi-likelihood function. Asymptotic mixed normality of the estimators were shown. Local asymptotic normality of the statistical model was proved in the case that the diffusion coefficients were deterministic, and consequently, asymptotic optimality of the estimators were shown.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2017 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (25 results)

All 2018 2017 2016 2015

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results) Presentation (23 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 15 results,  Invited: 6 results)

  • [Journal Article] Parametric Inference for Nonsynchronously Observed Diffusion Processes in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise2018

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Journal Title

      Bernoulli

      Volume: 24 Issue: 4B Pages: 3318-3383

    • DOI

      10.3150/17-bej962

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Local asymptotic mixed normality property for nonsynchronously observed diffusion processes2015

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Journal Title

      Bernoulli

      Volume: 21 Issue: 4 Pages: 2024-2072

    • DOI

      10.3150/14-bej634

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Statistical inference for integrated diffusion processes2018

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara, Masaaki Fukasawa
    • Organizer
      ASC2018: Asymptotic Statistics and Computations
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parametric inference for diffusion processes with high-frequency data2018

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      Risk Analysis and Random Field
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Statistical inference for integrated diffusion processes2017

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara, Masaaki Fukasawa
    • Organizer
      ISI-ISM-ISSAS Joint Conference 2018
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parametric inference for diffusion processes with high-frequency data2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      Workshop -- Portfolio dynamics and limit order books
    • Place of Presentation
      Ecole Centrale Supelec, France
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-12
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter estimation for diffusion processes with noisy, nonsynchronous observations2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      TMU Workshop on Financial Mathematics and Statistics 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo Metropolitan University
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-29
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter estimation for diffusion processes with high-frequency observations2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      Workshop “Stochastic Analysis and Statistics 4”
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Tokyo
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-31
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 非同期・ノイズ付観測された拡散過程に対する統計解析2016

    • Author(s)
      荻原 哲平
    • Organizer
      日本数学会2016年度秋季総合分科会
    • Place of Presentation
      関西大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-17
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 高頻度観測金融データに対する疑似尤度解析2016

    • Author(s)
      荻原 哲平
    • Organizer
      2016年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      金沢大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-07
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] LAMN property and optimal estimation for diffusion with nonsynchronous observations2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      Workshop “Stochastic Analysis and Statistics 2”
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Tokyo
    • Year and Date
      2016-08-06
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parametric inference for diffusion processes with high-frequency financial data2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      The 4th Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-30
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] LAMN property and optimal estimation for diffusion with non synchronous observations2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      Workshop "Stochastic Analysis and Statistics 1"
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Tokyo
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 高頻度観測金融データに対する最尤型推定法2016

    • Author(s)
      荻原哲平
    • Organizer
      第10回日本統計学会春季集会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学(東北)
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Parameter estimation for diffusion processes with noisy, nonsynchronous observations2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      ASC2016: Asymptotic Statistics and Computations
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2016-02-15
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Parameter estimation for diffusion processes with high-frequency data2016

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      ISI-ISM-ISSAS Joint Conference 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Academia Sinica,台北(台湾)
    • Year and Date
      2016-02-01
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes with noisy, nonsynchronous observations2015

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      CMStatistics 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      University of London,ロンドン(イギリス)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-13
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 非同期・ノイズ付観測された拡散過程に対する最尤型・ベイズ型推定法2015

    • Author(s)
      荻原哲平
    • Organizer
      大阪大学2015年度中之島ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学中之島センター(大阪)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-04
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Parameter Estimation for Diffusion Processes with Noisy, Nonsynchronous Observations2015

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      Berlin Meeting on Statistical Analysis of Stochastic Processes
    • Place of Presentation
      Humboldt Graduate School,ベルリン(ドイツ)
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-06
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 高頻度金融データを用いた金融証券リスク量の統計推測理論2015

    • Author(s)
      荻原哲平
    • Organizer
      慶應大学計量経済学ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      慶應大学(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-06
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 高頻度観測金融データに対する最尤型・ベイズ型推定法2015

    • Author(s)
      荻原哲平
    • Organizer
      大規模統計モデリングと計算統計Ⅱ
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-26
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 高頻度観測金融データに対する最尤型推定法2015

    • Author(s)
      荻原哲平
    • Organizer
      日本数学会2015年度秋季総合分科会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都産業大学(京都)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-15
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 高頻度観測金融データに対する最尤型推定法2015

    • Author(s)
      荻原哲平
    • Organizer
      2015年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山大学(岡山)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-07
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Parametric Inference for Diffusion Processes with Noisy, Nonsynchronous Observations2015

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      Dynstoch Meeting 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      Lund University,ルンド(スウェーデン)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-29
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Maximum likelihood type estimation for parametric diffusion processes with high-frequency data2015

    • Author(s)
      Teppei Ogihara
    • Organizer
      ISI-ISM-ISSAS Joint Conference 2015
    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所(東京)
    • Year and Date
      2015-04-04
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2015-04-16   Modified: 2019-03-29  

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