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The modulation of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation associated with climate change(Fostering Joint International Research)

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15KK0178
Research Category

Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

KAWATANI Yoshio  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 統合的気候変動予測研究分野, 主任研究員 (00392960)

Research Collaborator Gray Lesley  University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Professor
Osprey Scott  
Hamilton Kevin  
Anstey James  
Butchart Neal  
Richter Yadga  
Bushell Andrew  
Holt Laura  
Kim Young-Ha  
Project Period (FY) 2016 – 2018
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥9,490,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,190,000)
Keywords赤道準2年振動 / 成層圏対流圏結合 / 赤道準2年振動 / 中層大気 / 予測可能性
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Through Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) international project, we investigate the reproductivity of the QBO, QBO modulation associated with climate change and seasonal predictability of the QBO by analyzing multi-model data sets. All models project weaker amplitude of the QBO in the lower stratosphere. On the other hand, QBO periods changes differ significantly among the models. Seasonal predictability of the QBO is relatively well at 20 hPa and during westerly phases but it becomes worse in the lower stratosphere and during easterly phases. We also investigate the roles of the stratosphere in tropospheric climate. Models with well-resolved stratosphere tend to simulate better representation for tropospheric circulations, surface pressure and precipitations.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

国際プロジェクトを通して多数の気候モデルデータを解析し、気候変動に伴うQBOの変化について堅固な結果を得られたことは、今後の気候変動予測に有益な知見を与え、気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)にも貢献する。またQBOの季節予報精度に関する研究は、今後の季節予報スキル向上に役立つ知見を提供し、社会にも還元できる成果である。
成層圏が対流圏の気候に与える影響について詳細に調べた成果は、気候モデルに成層圏を含む必要があることを指摘するものであり、今後の気候モデルコミュニティに有益な知見を与えるものである。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (33 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 9 results) Presentation (21 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 14 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Oxford大学(英国)2016

    • Year and Date
      2016-06-02
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The Effects of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on the Simulated Boreal Winter Circulation in a Climate Model2019

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani Yoshio、Hamilton Kevin、Gray Lesley J.、Osprey Scott M.、Watanabe Shingo、Yamashita Yousuke
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

      Volume: 76 Issue: 5 Pages: 1203-1226

    • DOI

      10.1175/jas-d-18-0206.1

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Comparison of equatorial wave activity in the tropical tropopauselayer and stratosphere represented in reanalyses2019

    • Author(s)
      Kim Young-Ha、Kiladis George N.、Albers John R.、Dias Juliana、Fujiwara Masatomo、Anstey James A.、Song In-Sun、Wright Corwin J.、Kawatani Yoshio、Lott Fran?ois、Yoo Changhyun
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

      Volume: - Pages: 1-36

    • DOI

      10.5194/acp-2019-110

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC62018

    • Author(s)
      Tatebe Hiroaki and co-authors
    • Journal Title

      Geoscientific Model Development Discussions

      Volume: - Pages: 1-92

    • DOI

      10.5194/gmd-2018-155

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The influences of El Nino and Arctic sea-ice on the QBO disruption in February 20162018

    • Author(s)
      Hirota N.、Shiogama H.、Akiyoshi H.、Ogura T.、Takahashi M.、Kawatani Y.、Kimoto M.、Mori M.
    • Journal Title

      npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

      Volume: 1 Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41612-018-0020-1

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)2018

    • Author(s)
      Butchart Neal, Anstey James A., Hamilton Kevin, Osprey Scott, McLandress Charles, Bushell Andrew C., Kawatani Yoshio et al.
    • Journal Title

      Geoscientific Model Development

      Volume: 11 Issue: 3 Pages: 1009-1032

    • DOI

      10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] First Successful Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation2018

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe S.、Hamilton K.、Osprey S.、Kawatani Y.、Nishimoto E.
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Pages: 1602-1610

    • DOI

      10.1002/2017gl076406

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The influences of El Nino and Arctic sea-ice on the QBO disruption in February 20162018

    • Author(s)
      Hirota, N., H. Shiogama, H. Akiyoshi, T. Ogura, M. Takahashi, Y. Kawatani, M. Kimoto and M. Mori
    • Journal Title

      npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation2017

    • Author(s)
      Gray Lesley J.、Anstey James A.、Kawatani Yoshio、Lu Hua、Osprey Scott、Schenzinger Verena
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

      Volume: - Pages: 1-34

    • DOI

      10.5194/acp-2017-1065

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Representation of the tropical stratospheric zonal wind in global atmospheric reanalyses2016

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani, Y., Hamilton, K., Miyazaki, K., Fujiwara, M., and Anstey, J. A.
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 16 Issue: 11 Pages: 6681-6699

    • DOI

      10.5194/acp-16-6681-2016

    • NAID

      120005981374

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 成層圏が対流圏循環に及ぼす影響:MIROC-AGCMモデルを用いた考察2019

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani Yoshio、Hamilton Kevin、Gray Lesley J.、Osprey Scott M.、Watanabe Shingo、Yamashita Yousuke
    • Organizer
      地球流体力学研究集会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Quasi-biennial Oscillation Modulation by the El Nino Southern Oscillation2018

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani, Y., K. Hamilton, K. Sato, T. J. Dunkerton, S. Watanabe, K. Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Quasi-biennial Oscillation Modulation by the El Nino Southern Oscillation2018

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani, Y., K. Hamilton, K. Sato, T. J. Dunkerton, S. Watanabe, K. Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 15th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] ENSO modulation of the QBO: Results from MIROC models with and without nonstationary gravity wave parameterization2018

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani, Y., K. Hamilton, K. Sato, T. J. Dunkerton, S. Watanabe, K. Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      SPARC General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Effects of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on the Simulated Boreal Winter Circulation in a Climate Model2018

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani Yoshio、Hamilton Kevin、Gray Lesley J.、Osprey Scott M.、Watanabe Shingo、Yamashita Yousuke
    • Organizer
      AGU fall meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric QBO2018

    • Author(s)
      Shingo Watanabe, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, Eriko Nishimoto
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric QBO2018

    • Author(s)
      Shingo Watanabe, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, Eriko Nishimoto
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 15th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric QBO2018

    • Author(s)
      Shingo Watanabe, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, Eriko Nishimoto
    • Organizer
      SPARC General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How well do reanalyses represent the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation?2018

    • Author(s)
      Gray Lesley, Anstey James, Yoshio Kawatani, Young-Ha Kim, Lu Hua, Wright Corwin, Kiladis George
    • Organizer
      SPARC General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The influences of El Nino and Arctic sea-ice on the QBO disruption in February 20162018

    • Author(s)
      Nagio Hirota, Hideo Shiogama, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Tomoo Ogura, Masaaki Takahashi, Yoshio Kawatani, Masahide Kimoto, Masato Mori
    • Organizer
      SPARC General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Coordinated multi-model simulations of the quasi-biennial oscillation2018

    • Author(s)
      Andrew BUSHELL, Scott OSPREY, ANSTEY James, Neal BUTCHART, HAMILTON Kevin, Yoshio KAWATANI, Jadwiga RICHTER
    • Organizer
      SPARC General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Quasi-biennial oscillation in a warming climate, part 1: Overview & metrics2018

    • Author(s)
      Jadwiga RICHTER, Neal Butchart, Yoshio Kawatani, Andrew BUSHWELL, Osprey Scott
    • Organizer
      SPARC General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The QBO modulations associated with ENSO in the MIROC models with and without nonstationary gravity wave parameterization2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe, Timothy J. Dunkerton, Kazuyoshi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      第9回熱帯気象研究会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The effects of well-resolved stratosphere on representations of the tropospheric circulations in climate model simulations2017

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani, Y., S. Watanabe, L. Gray, S. Osprey
    • Organizer
      The 2nd International Workshop on "Climate Change and Precipitation in the East Asia"
    • Place of Presentation
      ガーデンシティ御茶ノ水、東京都千代田区
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 再解析間比較に基づく赤道域中層大気の東西風観測の重要性2017

    • Author(s)
      河谷芳雄
    • Organizer
      SMILES-2サイエンスワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] ENSO modulation of the QBO: Results from MIROC models with and without nonstationary gravity wave parameterization2017

    • Author(s)
      Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe, Timothy J. Dunkerton
    • Organizer
      Joint SPARC Dynamics & Observations Workshop - QBOi, FISAPS & SATIO-TCS
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 成層圏が対流圏に及ぼす影響:MIROC-AGCMを用いた考察2017

    • Author(s)
      河谷芳雄、渡辺真吾、Lesley Gray、Scott Osprey
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 成層圏が対流圏循環に及ぼす影響:MIROC-AGCMを用いた考察2017

    • Author(s)
      河谷芳雄、Kevin Hamilton、Lesley Gray、Scott Osprey、渡辺真吾、山下陽介
    • Organizer
      「様々な結合過程がもたらす異常気象の実態とそのメカニズム」に関する研究集会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The QBO modulations associated with ENSO in the MIROC models with and without nonstationary gravity wave parameterization2017

    • Author(s)
      Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe, Timothy J. Dunkerton, Kazuyoshi Kikuchi
    • Organizer
      AORI-POSTEC workshop
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The effects of well-resolved stratosphere on representations of the Northern winter tropospheric circulations in the MIROCAGCM simulations2017

    • Author(s)
      Yoshio Kawatani, Kevin Hamilton, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Shingo Watanabe, Yosuke Yamashita
    • Organizer
      The 3rd International Workshop on “Climate Change and Precipitation in the East Asia”
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Representation of the tropical stratospheric zonal wind in global atmospheric reanalyses2016

    • Author(s)
      Kawatani, Y., K. Hamilton, K. Miyazaki, M. Fujiwara, J. Anstey
    • Organizer
      The QBO and its Global impacts, Past, Present & Future
    • Place of Presentation
      Oxford, United Kingdom
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] Yoshio Kawatani

    • URL

      https://sites.google.com/site/yoshiokawatani/

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      https://sites.google.com/site/yoshiokawatani/

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-10-04   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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