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International and interdisciplinary research to develop a prediction system of violent conflicts

Research Project

Project/Area Number 15KT0040
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section特設分野
Research Field Conflict Studies
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Wada Takeshi  東京大学, 大学院総合文化研究科, 教授 (20534382)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 上田 博人  東京大学, 大学院総合文化研究科, 名誉教授 (20114796)
R・TINOCO Antonio  上智大学, 外国語学部, 名誉教授 (80296889)
Project Period (FY) 2015-07-10 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥18,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥6,370,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,470,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Keywords紛争 / 自然言語処理 / イベント分析 / 社会学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

By organizing an international research team with scholars from Latin American universities and an interdisciplinary team of specialists in Spanish linguistics, natural language processing, and sociology, this project has developed a foundation of a system that automatically collects information on political and social events in the form of "who does what to whom, when, where, and why." Such an event data system is essential for predicting the outbreak of violent conflict. The system collects information from Spanish-language news agencies, and its accuracy of information extraction is currently at 47-92% range depending on items to be evaluated. The results of our statistical analysis have been published in international academic journals and conferences to attract broader scholarly attention abroad.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

学術的意義として、本研究で開発したイベント・データベースは、暴力的紛争の予測という目的以外にも抗議行動や社会運動研究など様々な研究に役立てることができる点が挙げられる。また、24回のワークショップを通じて、文系の若手研究者や学生がビッグデータ、自然言語処理、機械学習等を学ぶ貴重な機会を設けたこと、スペインやラテンアメリカ諸国の研究者との持続的な共同研究ネットワークを構築できたことも意義深い。社会的意義は、多大な人的被害をもたらす暴力的紛争が生じるリスクを詳細な政治地理的・社会空間的単位ごとに一定の精度で計測し早期警告に活用する可能性を開いたことである。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (71 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (17 results) Journal Article (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 9 results,  Open Access: 6 results) Presentation (30 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 23 results,  Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (4 results) Funded Workshop (7 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] StratioBD(スペイン)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] National Autonomous University of Mexico/El Colegio de Mexico(メキシコ)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Catholic University of Chile(チリ)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Buenos Aires(アルゼンチン)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of California Irvine(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Deloitte Digital(スペイン)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] National Autonomous University of Mexico/El Colegio de Mexico(メキシコ)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Catholic University of Chile(チリ)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Buenos Aires(アルゼンチン)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Deloitte Digital/BEEVA(スペイン)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Catholic University of Chile(チリ)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Buenos Aires/National University of San Martin(アルゼンチン)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Sao Paulo(ブラジル)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] El Colegio de Mexico/National Autonomous University of Mexico(メキシコ)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research]

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] BEEVA(Spain)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana(Mexico)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] メキシコの市民社会の変遷―民衆闘争の歴史空間的解析を通して-2019

    • Author(s)
      和田毅
    • Journal Title

      星野妙子編『メキシコの21世紀』アジア経済研究所

      Volume: ー Pages: 53-95

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] VARIGRAMA (Variacion Gramatical del Espanol en el Mundo) ―Una vision panoramica de los rasgos sintacticos del espanol―2019

    • Author(s)
      Takagaki, Toshihiro; Ueda, Hiroto; Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Journal Title

      VERBA

      Volume: ー

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using Elasticsearch for Linguistic Analysis of Tweets in Time and Space2018

    • Author(s)
      Barbaresi, Adrian; Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the LREC 2018 Workshop “Challenges in the Management of Large Corpora (CMLC-6)”

      Volume: ー Pages: 19-19

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Un esbozo historico de las formas abreviadas espanolas con indices de continuidad y de suavidad2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Actas del II Congreso Internacional sobre el espanol y la cultura hispanica del Instituto Cervantes de Tokio (2015)

      Volume: - Pages: 24-44

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 書評論文 岡田勇 著『資本国家と民主主義―ラテンアメリカの挑戦―』2017

    • Author(s)
      和田毅
    • Journal Title

      ラテン・アメリカ論集

      Volume: 51 Pages: 55-62

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] delとalの歴史的形成2017

    • Author(s)
      上田博人
    • Journal Title

      日本イスパニヤ学会会報

      Volume: - Pages: 2-3

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Two statistical treatments of Spanish vocabulary: composite indices of frequency and dispersion and principal component analysis applied to ordinal frequencies2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Dialectologia

      Volume: 7 Pages: 187-227

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Variation of the Second Person Singular of the Simple Past Tense in Twitter: Hiciste vs. Hicistes “You Did”2017

    • Author(s)
      Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Journal Title

      Dialectology

      Volume: 7 Pages: 145-167

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] メキシコの市民社会の変容:3つのアプローチの検討2017

    • Author(s)
      和田毅
    • Journal Title

      星野妙子編『21世紀のメキシコ:近代化する経済、分断化する社会』調査研究報告書 アジア経済研究所

      Volume: 1 Pages: 71-93

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Analizador linguistico comun con reglas gramaticales y diccionario, preparados por el usuario: Una aplicacion para el analisis tipologico del lexico espanol2016

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Journal Title

      Linguistica Espanola Actual

      Volume: 37 Pages: 241-264

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Analisis del uso y distribucion de formas lexicas dialectales del catalan en Twitter2016

    • Author(s)
      Antonio Ruiz Tinoco and Maria-Pilar Perea
    • Journal Title

      Revista Internacional de Linguistica Iberoamericana (RILI). Variacion linguistica e internet: cayendo en la red.

      Volume: 14 Pages: 49-63

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Rigidity and flexibility of repertoires of contention2016

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Journal Title

      Mobilization: An International Quarterly

      Volume: 21 Pages: 449-468

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Violence, Protest, or Convention? A Comparison of the Strategic Patterns in Contentious Politics around the World2019

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Organizer
      International Visiting Scholars Lunch Talks, Jack W. Peltason Center for the Study of Democracy, University of California Irvine
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Workshop on Protest Event Analysis in Latin America: An Introduction, Inquiry, and Invitation2019

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Organizer
      The International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Protest event data analysis: Addressing cross-national comparative questions using country-specific event data sets2018

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Organizer
      The XXXVI International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Prospect of political event data analysis in Latin America2018

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Organizer
      The Japan-Latin America Academic Conference 2018 in Nikko
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Usos y distribucion geografica de luego y despues2018

    • Author(s)
      Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Organizer
      III Congreso internacional sobre el espanol y la cultura hispanica
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Using Elasticsearch for Linguistic Analysis of Tweets in Time and Space2018

    • Author(s)
      Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio; Barbaresi, Adrien
    • Organizer
      11th edition of the LREC、ELRA
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Twitter como recurso para la ensenanza del lexico variable del espanol2018

    • Author(s)
      Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Organizer
      V Jornadas ELE en Bangkok
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Recursos informaticos en web para el analisis y la ensenanza de espanol. Analisis estadisticos2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Organizer
      Instituto Cervantes en Boston
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Queismo y dequeismo observados en los datos de VARIGRAMA en el sistema LYNEAL. Aproximacion a la realidad de variacion sintactica espanola a traves de analisis multivariados pluridimensionales2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Organizer
      Spanish Dialect Syntax, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Union y separacion de preposicion y articulo definido del espanol. Su estructura y frecuencia en espacio y tiempo2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Organizer
      Taller/Workshop PROGRAMES: Gramaticalizacion, lexicalizacio;lisis del discurso desde una perspectiva historica (cuestiones metodologicas e instrumentales), Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Metodos linguisticos basados en evidencias documentadas. DEL y AL en espanol2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Organizer
      CANELA (Confederacion Academica Nipona, Espanola y Latinoamericana), Instituto Cervantes en Tokio
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Las grafias <u>, <v> y <b> a lo largo de la historia del espanol. Analisis separado de frecuencias y analisis conjunto multivariante2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Organizer
      V Congreso Internacional de la Red CHARTA
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Preguntas confirmativas en espanol. Un estudio de PRESEEA en LYNEAL2017

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Organizer
      XVIII Congreso Internacional de la Asociacion de Linguistica y Filologia de America Latina (ALFAL)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Variacion lexica del espanol en las redes sociales2017

    • Author(s)
      Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Organizer
      Hispanistentag 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Distribucion de la variacion de la segunda persona singular del preterito de indicativo en Twitter: hiciste vs. hicistes2017

    • Author(s)
      Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Organizer
      第63回大会日本イスパニヤ学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Mexican Popular Contention Database (MPCD) and beyond2017

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Organizer
      The XXXV International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] メキシコ市民社会の変遷2017

    • Author(s)
      和田毅
    • Organizer
      第11回アジア経済研究所メキシコ研究会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 暴力的紛争の勃発を予知するシステムを開発する国際的・学際的共同研究の進捗状況2017

    • Author(s)
      和田毅
    • Organizer
      独立行政法人日本学術振興会学術システム研究センター. 特設分野研究「紛争研究」研究者交流会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Variacion lexica del espanol de las redes sociales2017

    • Author(s)
      Antonio Ruiz Tinoco
    • Organizer
      XXI Congreso de la Asociacion Alemana de Hispanistas
    • Place of Presentation
      Munich, Germany
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Relational Event Analysis of Popular Protests in Mexico, 1964-20002016

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Organizer
      The 1st National Congress of Social Movement Studies: “Rethinking movements. Dialogues between knowledge and experiences”
    • Place of Presentation
      Mexico City, Mexico
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-17
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] A Cross-National Comparison of the Patterns of Civic Participation: Worldwide Convergence, National Divergence, or Enduring Influences of Cultural Repertoires?2016

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi, Yoojin Koo, and Kayo Hoshino
    • Organizer
      Third ISA Forum of Sociology: “The Futures We Want: Global Sociology and the Struggles for a Better World.” International Sociological Association.
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-10
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Association Rule Analysis of the Repression-Dissent Dynamics2016

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi and Yoshiyuki Aoki
    • Organizer
      Third ISA Forum of Sociology: “The Futures We Want: Global Sociology and the Struggles for a Better World.” International Sociological Association.
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-10
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A Cross-National Comparison of the Patterns of Civic Participation: Worldwide Convergence, National Divergence, or Enduring Influences of Cultural Repertoire?2016

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Wada, Yoojin Koo, and Kayo Hoshino
    • Organizer
      International Sociological Association
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Association Rule Analysis of the Repression-Dissent Dynamics2016

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Wada and Yoshiyuki Aoki
    • Organizer
      International Sociological Association
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Complex Political Context of Conservative Mobilization in Japan: Utilizing the Event Data from Periodicals2016

    • Author(s)
      Yoojin Koo
    • Organizer
      International Sociological Association
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-10
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A historical and comparative analysis of the influences of academic disciplines on Latin American Studies2016

    • Author(s)
      Wada, Takeshi
    • Organizer
      XXXIV International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association
    • Place of Presentation
      New York, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-27
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A historical and comparative analysis of the influences of academic disciplines on Latin American Studies2016

    • Author(s)
      Takeshi Wada
    • Organizer
      International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association
    • Place of Presentation
      New York City, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-27
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Tratamiento linguistico y matematico de textos digitales espanoles: Presentacion del Programa LEXIS-web2016

    • Author(s)
      Hiroto Ueda
    • Organizer
      IX Congreso Internacional de la Asociacion Asiatica de Hispanistas
    • Place of Presentation
      Universidad de Chulalongkorn, Bangkok, Tailandia
    • Year and Date
      2016-01-22
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Corpus analysis, lexical variation and mapping technologies for Spanish2016

    • Author(s)
      Antonio Ruiz Tinoco
    • Organizer
      Academiae Corpora, Austrian Academy of Sciences
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Analisis de tuits en espanol con Elastic Stack -- variacion geografica y temporal --2016

    • Author(s)
      Antonio Ruiz Tinoco
    • Organizer
      LXII Congreso de la Asociacion Japonesa de Hispanistas
    • Place of Presentation
      Universidad de Estudios Extranjeros de Kobe (Hyogo, Kobe)
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Lexico dialectal y lexicografia en la Iberorromania2018

    • Author(s)
      Ueda, Hiroto; Ruiz Tinoco, Antonio
    • Publisher
      Iberoamericana Vervuert
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Global Event Data System Seminar Series

    • URL

      http://www.jp.lainac.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/seminars/bdnlp

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 人文社会科学のためのビッグデータと自然言語処理セミナーシリーズ

    • URL

      http://www.en.lainac.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/seminars/bdnlp

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 人文社会科学のためのビッグデータと自然言語処理セミナーシリーズ

    • URL

      http://www.jp.lainac.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/seminars/bdnlp

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Big Data and NLP in the Social Sciences

    • URL

      http://www1.lainac.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/seminars/bdnlp

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Global Event Data System (GEDS) Seminar Series "Big Data and Natural Language Processing in the Social Sciences & Humanities"2019

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Global Event Data System (GEDS) Seminar Series "Big Data and Natural Language Processing in the Social Sciences & Humanities"2018

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] The Japan-Latin America Academic Conference 2018 in Nikko2018

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Global Event Data System (GEDS) Seminar Series "Big Data and Natural Language Processing in the Social Sciences & Humanities"2017

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Seminar Series 2 "Big Data and Natural Language Processing in the Social Sciences & Humanities"2017

    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Tokyo, Tokyo
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Seminar Series 3 "Big Data and Natural Language Processing in the Social Sciences & Humanities"2017

    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Tokyo, Tokyo
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Funded Workshop] Seminar Series 1 "Big Data and Natural Language Processing in the Social Sciences & Humanities"2016

    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Tokyo, Tokyo
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2015-07-14   Modified: 2022-11-04  

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