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Risk evaluation method of transportation disruption based on predicting traffic infrastructure function failure and its restoration at large scale natural disaster

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K01277
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Social systems engineering/Safety system
Research InstitutionKanto Gakuin University (2018)
Kajima Technical Research Institute, Kajima Corporation (2016-2017)

Principal Investigator

Torisawa Kazuaki  関東学院大学, 理工学部, 准教授 (80416734)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 矢代 晴実  防衛大学校(総合教育学群、人文社会科学群、応用科学群、電気情報学群及びシステム工学群), システム工学群, 教授 (90191105)
Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywordsリスク評価 / 交通インフラ / 物資輸送 / 自然災害 / レジリエンス / 地理情報システム / ロジスティクス
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The disruption of traffic infrastructure at natural disasters has a major impact on the physical distribution in the affected areas. In this research, with regard to the methods for predicting road function failures and assessing the impact on the logistics networks during disasters that the research representative has constructed so far, the damage prediction model was verified, and the types of applicable disasters were extended from earthquakes and tsunamis to volcanic and flood disasters. In addition, in order to make it possible to study the impact on the wide area logistics networks, we constructed transportation network digital data connecting roads, shipping routes, and air routes throughout Japan, and organized the technical challenges for analyzing transportation disruption using it.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

従来の被害想定では交通インフラの被害は単に被害箇所数の計算に留まり、それによってどの程度の輸送支障が生じるかは明らかにされていなかった。本研究成果により、大規模自然災害における道路・港湾・空港の機能支障・復旧を考慮した輸送可能量の算定が可能となった。すなわち、国や自治体が計画する調達や備蓄で必要な物資量を確保できるかが把握でき、災害時の物資供給に関する戦略立案に有益な情報となる。また、国土強靭化の取組みを始めとした交通インフラへの各種防災施策の効果を定量化でき、その意思決定への貢献が期待できる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (16 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016

All Presentation (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results)

  • [Presentation] A Rescue Simulation Scenario for Tokyo Inland Earthquake: the Role Transport Network and Traffic Regulation in Lifesaving2019

    • Author(s)
      Kina Satoshi, Sadohara Satoru, Inagaki Keiko, Yashiro Harumi
    • Organizer
      7th International Conference on Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering (7ICEGE)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 地震時の救助活動シミュレーションの構築と危機管理体制への活用2019

    • Author(s)
      喜納啓、佐土原聡、稲垣景子、矢代晴実
    • Organizer
      2019年度日本建築学会大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Study on Volcanic Ash Fall Hazard and Road Network Disruption Risk due to Eruption of Fuji Volcano2018

    • Author(s)
      Torisawa Kazuaki, Yashiro Harumi
    • Organizer
      14th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management conference (PSAM14)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 地震時における救助活動シミュレーションの構築と部隊運用に関する考察2018

    • Author(s)
      喜納啓、佐土原聡、稲垣景子、矢代晴実
    • Organizer
      第15回日本地震工学シンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 火山避難に関する基礎的研究-大分県鶴見岳を例として-2018

    • Author(s)
      内山諒史、矢代晴実
    • Organizer
      第45回土木学会関東支部技術研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 首都直下地震発生時の自力脱出困難者に対する共助・公助力効果に関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      香田悠渡、矢代晴実、喜納啓
    • Organizer
      第45回土木学会関東支部技術研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 自力脱出困難者を対象とした公的救助機関の優先派遣地域に関する研究2018

    • Author(s)
      喜納啓、佐土原聡、稲垣景子、矢代晴実、鳥澤一晃
    • Organizer
      2018年度日本建築学会大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 自力脱出困難者を対象とした危機管理対応策に関する研究-救助活動能力の分析による救助部隊の適正運用について-2018

    • Author(s)
      喜納啓、佐土原聡、稲垣景子、矢代晴実、鳥澤一晃
    • Organizer
      第42回地域安全学会研究発表会(春季)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 大分県鶴見岳における火山避難に関する基礎的研究2018

    • Author(s)
      堀口俊行、矢代晴実、喜納啓
    • Organizer
      第42回地域安全学会研究発表会(春季)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Study on Personnel Transport to Rescue Self-Escaping Difficult Persons after the Tokyo Inland Earthquake2018

    • Author(s)
      Kina Satoshi, Sadohara Satoru, Inagaki Keiko, Yashiro Harumi, Torisawa Kazuaki
    • Organizer
      16th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering (16ECEE)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 震災時の緊急物資輸送ルートの確率論的リスク評価2017

    • Author(s)
      喜納 啓、矢代 晴実、鳥澤 一晃、福島 誠一郎、堀口 俊行
    • Organizer
      地域安全学会
    • Place of Presentation
      石垣市商工会館・商工会ホール
    • Year and Date
      2017-06-09
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 震災時の緊急物資輸送ルートの確率論的リスク評価2017

    • Author(s)
      喜納啓、鳥澤一晃、福島誠一郎、矢代晴実
    • Organizer
      第40回地域安全学会研究発表会(春季)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 神奈川県を対象とした首都直下地震による自力脱出困難者対策の基礎研究2017

    • Author(s)
      喜納啓、佐土原聡、稲垣景子、矢代晴実
    • Organizer
      第41回地域安全学会研究発表会(秋季)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 富士山噴火による降灰ハザードと道路機能支障リスクに関する検討2017

    • Author(s)
      鳥澤一晃、矢代晴実
    • Organizer
      第41回地域安全学会研究発表会(秋季)
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Study on the Risk Assessment of Emergency Supplies Transportation Routes Considering Scenario Earthquakes2017

    • Author(s)
      Kazuaki Torisawa, Harumi Yashiro, Sei’ichiro Fukushima, Satoshi Kina
    • Organizer
      11th Society for Social Management Systems
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 平成28年(2016年)熊本地震における道路通行止めの分析(速報)2016

    • Author(s)
      鳥澤 一晃、矢代 晴実
    • Organizer
      地域安全学会
    • Place of Presentation
      高知県立県民文化ホール
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-03
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2020-03-30  

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