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Future projection of extreme precipitation intensity using a global cloud-system resolving model

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K05560
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

YOKOI Satoru  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(大気海洋相互作用研究プログラム), 主任研究員 (40431902)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Keywords熱帯気象 / 極端降水 / 将来変化 / NICAM / 将来変化予測 / 気候変動 / 自然災害 / 気象学 / 極端現象
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study examined how intensity of extreme precipitation would change due to the anthropogenic global warming, via analysis of present climate and future climate simulations performed with a global cloud-system resolving climate model, NICAM. In particular, we focus on precipitation over tropical oceanic area to examine how projected increase rates of the extreme precipitation intensity depends on spatial and temporal scales of interest and the degree of extremeness. We found that the increase rates would decrease with increasing temporal scale for temporal scales longer than 4-6 hours, and it would increase with increasing the degree of extremeness.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地球温暖化に伴い極端降水(集中豪雨)の強さがどのように変化するのか、という問題は防災施策上からも重要な問題である。特に、短い時間スケールほど増加率が大きく予測された点は注目に値する。既往研究の多くは日降水量に焦点を当てて予測を行ってきたが、その予測を例えばゲリラ豪雨のような数時間程度の極端降水の強度について適用すると、温暖化の影響を過小評価してしまう可能性を示唆している。また、降水量を計算する際の時空間スケールの大きさにより極端降水強度の変化率がどのように異なるかを明らかにした点は、科学的にも意義深いといえる。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (27 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (18 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 14 results,  Invited: 3 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] 技術評価応用庁(BPPT)/気象気候地球物理庁(BMKG)(インドネシア)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] マイアミ大学/海洋大気庁(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 技術評価応用庁/気象・気候・地球物理庁(インドネシア)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 科学技術評価応用庁/気象・気候・地球物理庁(インドネシア)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Environmental Conditions for Nighttime Offshore Migration of Precipitation Area as Revealed by In Situ Observation off Sumatra Island2019

    • Author(s)
      Yokoi Satoru、Mori Shuichi、Syamsudin Fadli、Haryoko Urip、Geng Biao
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 147 Issue: 9 Pages: 3391-3407

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-18-0412.1

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Observational Evidence of Mixed Rossby‐Gravity Waves as a Driving Force for the MJO Convective Initiation and Propagation2019

    • Author(s)
      Takasuka Daisuke, Satoh Masaki, Yokoi Satoru
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 46 Issue: 10 Pages: 5546-5555

    • DOI

      10.1029/2019gl083108

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Space-Time Spectral Analysis of the Moist Static Energy Budget Equation2019

    • Author(s)
      Yasunaga Kazuaki、Yokoi Satoru、Inoue Kuniaki、Mapes Brian E.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 32 Issue: 2 Pages: 501-529

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-18-0334.1

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Diurnal cycle of precipitation observed in the western coastal area of Sumatra Island: Offshore preconditioning by gravity waves2017

    • Author(s)
      Yokoi, S., S. Mori, M. Katsumata, B. Geng, K. Yasunaga, F. Syamsudin, Nurhayati, and K. Yoneyama
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 145 Issue: 9 Pages: 3745-3761

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-16-0468.1

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Precipitation variability and associated atmospheric boundary layer processes observed during Pre-YMC 2015 and YMC-Sumatra 2017 field campaigns off the west coast of Sumatra Island2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Yokoi
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 北進季節内変動に伴うフィリピン西岸域の降水変動:YMC-Laoag 2018集中観測2019

    • Author(s)
      横井 覚、城岡 竜一、米山 邦夫、F. D. Hilario、 E. O. Cayanan
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] bservational study on key environmental conditions for the occurrence of nighttime offshore-ward migration of precipitation area off the west coast of Sumatra Island2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Yokoi, S. Mori, F. Syamsudin, U. Haryoko, B. Geng, K. Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      Joint Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Annual Meeting 2019 and the International Conference for Tropical Meteorology and Oceanography
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] スマトラ島西岸沖における海上気象要素変動の観測的研究2019

    • Author(s)
      横井 覚
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Diurnal cycle of precipitation in the western coastal area of Sumatra Island observed in Pre-YMC and YMC-Sumatra 2017 field campaigns2018

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi, Shuichi Mori, Masaki Katsumata, Biao Geng, Fadli Syamsudin, Nurhayati, Urip Haryoko, Kunio Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Diurnal cycle of precipitation around western coast of Sumatra Island observed during Pre-YMC and YMC-Sumatra2017 field campaigns2018

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi, Shuichi Mori, Masaki Katsumata, Biao Geng, Kazuaki Yasunaga, Fadli Syamsudin, Nurhayati, Kunio Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] YMC2017-Sumatra 集中観測期間中に見られた降水日変化2018

    • Author(s)
      横井 覚、勝俣 昌己、耿 驃
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Toward comprehensive understanding of diurnal cycle of precipitation in tropical Asia2018

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi
    • Organizer
      Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Observational study of diurnal cycle of precipitation over tropical coastal waters2018

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi, Shuichi Mori, Masaki Katsumata, Biao Geng, Fadli Syamsudin, Nurhayati, Urip Haryoko, Kunio Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      The 1st International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Atmspheric Sciences
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Pre-YMC及びYMC-Sumatra 2017集中観測で見られた降水日変化の比較2018

    • Author(s)
      横井 覚、森 修一、勝俣 昌己、耿 驃、Fadli Syamsudin、Nurhayati、Urip Haryoko、米山 邦 夫
    • Organizer
      集中観測で見られた降水日変化の比較
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Comparison of precipitation diurnal cycle observed in the coastal waters of Sumatra Island during two field campaigns in austral summer: Pre-YMC 2015 and YMC-Sumatra 20172018

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi, Shuichi Mori, Fadli Syamsudin, Urip Haryoko, Nurhayati, Biao Geng, Masaki Katsumata, Kunio Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      AGU 2018 Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Future change of extreme precipitation over tropical ocean projected by NICAM AMIP-type experiment2017

    • Author(s)
      S. Yokoi
    • Organizer
      The 2nd International Workshop on "Climate Change and Precipitation in the East Asia"
    • Place of Presentation
      ガーデンシティ御茶ノ水(東京都千代田区)
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-28
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Diurnal cycle of precipitation observed in the western coastal area of Sumatra Island, Indonesia: Offshore preconditioning by gravity waves2017

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi, Shuichi Mori, Masaki Katsumata, Biao Geng, Kazuaki Yasunaga, Fadli Syamsudin, Nurhayati, Kunio Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Observational study of diurnal offshore migration of precipitation area over the Indonesian Maritime Continent2017

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi, Shuichi Mori, Masaki Katsumata, Biao Geng, Kazuaki Yasunaga, Fadli Syamsudin, Nurhayati, Kunio Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Diurnal offshore migration of precipitation area over western coastal waters of Sumatra Island observed during Pre-YMC field campaign2017

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Yokoi, Shuichi Mori, Masaki Katsumata, Biao Geng, Kazuaki Yasunaga, Fadli Syamsudin, Nurhayati, Kunio Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      AOGS 14th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Diurnal cycle and its modulation by Madden-Julian oscillation observed around western coast of Sumatra Island: preconditioning for offshore convection by gravity waves2016

    • Author(s)
      S. Yokoi, S. Mori, M. Katsumata, K. Yasunaga, and K. Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      2016 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-12
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Diurnal cycle of precipitation in western coastal area of Sumatra Island observed during Pre-YMC field campaign2016

    • Author(s)
      S. Yokoi
    • Organizer
      Workshop on global precipitation systems 2016
    • Place of Presentation
      海洋研究開発機構横浜研究所(神奈川県横浜市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-28
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Modulation of diurnal cycle by Madden-Julian Oscillation observed during Pre-YMC2015 field campaign2016

    • Author(s)
      S. Yokoi, S. Mori, M. Katsumata, and K. Yoneyama
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Intraseasonal Processes and Prediction in the Maritime Continent
    • Place of Presentation
      Singapore
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-11
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] Satoru Yokoi webpage

    • URL

      http://www.jamstec.go.jp/res/ress/yokoi/index-j.html

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2021-02-19  

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