Future projection of extreme precipitation intensity using a global cloud-system resolving model
| Project/Area Number |
16K05560
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
YOKOI Satoru 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(大気海洋相互作用研究プログラム), 主任研究員 (40431902)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
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| Keywords | 熱帯気象 / 極端降水 / 将来変化 / NICAM / 将来変化予測 / 気候変動 / 自然災害 / 気象学 / 極端現象 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study examined how intensity of extreme precipitation would change due to the anthropogenic global warming, via analysis of present climate and future climate simulations performed with a global cloud-system resolving climate model, NICAM. In particular, we focus on precipitation over tropical oceanic area to examine how projected increase rates of the extreme precipitation intensity depends on spatial and temporal scales of interest and the degree of extremeness. We found that the increase rates would decrease with increasing temporal scale for temporal scales longer than 4-6 hours, and it would increase with increasing the degree of extremeness.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
地球温暖化に伴い極端降水（集中豪雨）の強さがどのように変化するのか、という問題は防災施策上からも重要な問題である。特に、短い時間スケールほど増加率が大きく予測された点は注目に値する。既往研究の多くは日降水量に焦点を当てて予測を行ってきたが、その予測を例えばゲリラ豪雨のような数時間程度の極端降水の強度について適用すると、温暖化の影響を過小評価してしまう可能性を示唆している。また、降水量を計算する際の時空間スケールの大きさにより極端降水強度の変化率がどのように異なるかを明らかにした点は、科学的にも意義深いといえる。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(27 results)
