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Predictability of weather regime-related atmospheric phenomena

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K16378
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

MATSUEDA MIO  筑波大学, 計算科学研究センター, 助教 (80738691)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2018)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Keywords異常気象 / 予測可能性 / アンサンブル予報 / 天候レジーム / 数値予報 / 熱波 / 豪雨 / 大気顕著現象 / 寒波 / 気象災害 / 顕著現象
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In the study, there are three focused topics: 1. predictability of winter Euro-Atlantic (EA) regimes, 2. predictability of regime-related heatwave in EA summer, and 3. predictability of severe weather events occurred during the research period (e.g. the 2018 Western Japan Heavy Rainfall). Regarding the winter regimes, the most interesting result is that the longer the NAO- events persist, the higher the skill of forecasts initialised on NAO-. The skill dependency on regime duration is less clearly observed for the other regimes. Regarding the regime-related heatwave, 6 of 8 detected EA summer regimes are related to well-known heatwaves. The UK-France heatwave regime was least predictable. Regarding the predictability of the 2018 western Japan heavy rainfall which was highly predicted by NCEP operational forecast, joint analysis using operational forecasts and ensemble simulation with NCEP initial conditions and an ECMWF model revealed why ECMWF had lower skill for the event.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、熱波・寒波・豪雨・暴風などの顕著現象をもたらす天候レジームの予測可能性を調べたが、予測精度がどのような場合に高く(低く)なるのかを明らかにしたことは、学術的にも、減災の観点からも大変重要な結果である。また、予報ができなかった原因を探るために、各国の気象局が日々の予報で使っている初期値とモデルを入れ替える実験を行った。これは、予測できなかった原因が、初期値にあったのか、モデルにあったかを切り分ける非常に有益なツールであり、このような事例解析を積み重ねて初期値またはモデルを改良していくことは、より精度の高い天気予報を提供し、人々がより安全な生活を送ることへと繋がる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2018 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (31 results)

All 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (7 results) Journal Article (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 12 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (4 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] ECMWF/University of Oxford(英国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ISAC-CNR(イタリア)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of California San Diego(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Oxford(英国)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ISAC-CNR(Italy)

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Oxford/ECMWF(United Kingdom)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] ISAC-CNR(Italy)

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Skill of medium-range reforecast for summertime extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in 1986?20162019

    • Author(s)
      Yamagami Akio、Matsueda Mio、Tanaka Hiroshi L.
    • Journal Title

      Polar Science

      Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 107-116

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.polar.2019.02.003

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimates of flow-dependent predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda M., and T. N. Palmer
    • Journal Title

      Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 713 Pages: 1012-1027

    • DOI

      10.1002/qj.3265

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-20162018

    • Author(s)
      Yamagami Akio、Matsueda Mio、Tanaka Hiroshi L.
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 45 Issue: 9 Pages: 4429-4437

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018gl077278

    • NAID

      120007134049

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 季節内から季節予測プロジェクト (Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project)2017

    • Author(s)
      高谷祐平, 中澤哲夫, 松枝未遠
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 64(6) Pages: 51-56

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Wintertime East Asian Flow Patterns and Their Predictability on Medium-Range Timescales2016

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M. and M. Kyouda
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 12 Issue: 0 Pages: 121-126

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2016-027

    • NAID

      130005153693

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The S2S Museum2016

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M
    • Journal Title

      S2S News Letter

      Volume: 4 Pages: 3-4

    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Presentation] The S2S Museum - a website of ensemble forecast products -2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M., and A. Yamagami
    • Organizer
      International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Predictability of winter Pacific weather regimes and its connections with MJO on medium-range timescales2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M., and T. N. Palmer
    • Organizer
      International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Forecast Verification of Pacific/North American (PNA) Teleconnection on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales2018

    • Author(s)
      Yamagami, A and M. Matsueda
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 15th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Forecast verification of summertime Arctic cyclones on medium-range timescales. European Geoscience Union General Assembly 20182018

    • Author(s)
      Yamagami, A., M. Matsueda, and H. L. Tanaka
    • Organizer
      European Geoscience Union General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimates of flow-dependent predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M., and T. N. Palmer
    • Organizer
      European Geoscience Union General Assembly 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Flow-dependent predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M.
    • Organizer
      Workshop “Predicting the NAO: overconfident, underconfident, or just right?”.
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Predictability of winter Pacific weather regimes and its connections with MJO on medium-range timescales2017

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M., and T. N. Palmer
    • Organizer
      European Geoscience Union General Assembly 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report 2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The TIGGE and S2S Museums - websites of ensemble forecast products -2017

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M., T. Nakazawa, and A. Yamagami
    • Organizer
      7th Verification Workshop
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report 2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Early warning products for severe weather events derived from operational medium-range ensemble forecasts2017

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M., and T. Nakazawa,
    • Organizer
      Conference on Predictability and Multi-Scale Prediction of High Impact Weather
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Predictability of wintertime Pacific weather regimes on medium-range timescales2016

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M.
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Moscone Convention Center,San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2016-12-12
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 冬季東アジア域における大循環場の予測可能性2016

    • Author(s)
      松枝未遠, 経田正幸
    • Organizer
      東アジア域における大気循環の季節内変動に関する研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学, 宇治市, 京都府
    • Year and Date
      2016-11-08
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] アンサンブルの森に誘われて(日本気象学会正野賞受賞記念講演)2016

    • Author(s)
      松枝未遠
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会(秋季)
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学, 名古屋市, 愛知県
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] How well do medium-range ensemble forecasts simulate atmospheric blocking events?2016

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M.
    • Organizer
      High Impact Weather and Climate Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
    • Year and Date
      2016-07-06
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How well do medium-range ensemble forecasts simulate atmospheric blocking events?2016

    • Author(s)
      Matsueda, M.
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Atmospheric Blocking
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Reading, Reading, UK
    • Year and Date
      2016-04-06
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] The TIGGE Museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2016 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] The S2S Museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report 2016 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] TIGGE Museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] S2S Museum

    • URL

      http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/S2S/

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2022-02-22  

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