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Understanding and improving convective-scale predictability

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16K17807
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionInstitute of Physical and Chemical Research

Principal Investigator

Otsuka Shigenori  国立研究開発法人理化学研究所, 計算科学研究センター, 研究員 (40585022)

Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords積雲対流 / 予測可能性 / 降水ナウキャスト / フェーズドアレイ気象レーダ / 深層学習 / パターン認識 / 平成30年7月豪雨 / 3次元降水ナウキャスト / データ同化 / 気象学 / 自然現象観測・予測 / 大気現象
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project investigated 1) chaotic error growth at the scale of cumulus convection, 2) effectiveness of prediction by linear spatiotemporal extrapolation, and 3) development of methods to improve practical predictability of cumulus convection. It was found that the prediction error grew associated with convective cores at the time scale of 30 seconds. Using observations by the Phased Array Weather Radar, a 10-minute-lead precipitation prediction system that refreshes every 30 seconds was developed, and the system was successfully operated in real time. To evaluate prediction accuracy, a method to compute statistics on the area of cumulus convection and a method to evaluate shapes of convective areas were developed.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ゲリラ豪雨や線状降水帯に代表されるように、積雲対流は私たちの社会生活に大きな影響をもたらす。本研究では積雲対流がどこまで予測可能であるかという点について理解を深めた。また、降水予測の精度評価は従来の手法では問題があったが、本研究では新しい指標を提案した。これらの点で学術的な意義がある。さらに、実際に積雲対流の予測を行う新たな手法を開発し、リアルタイム運用を実現したという点で社会的意義がある。

Report

(7 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • 2016 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (49 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (3 results) Journal Article (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (38 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 23 results,  Invited: 2 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Buenos Aires(アルゼンチン)

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] IMT Atlantique(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] IMT Atlantique(フランス)

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Advantage of 30-s-Updating Numerical Weather Prediction with a Phased-Array Weather Radar over Operational Nowcast for a Convective Precipitation System2022

    • Author(s)
      Takumi Honda, Arata Amemiya, Shigenori Otsuka, James Taylor, Yasumitsu Maejima, Seiya Nishizawa, Tsuyoshi Yamaura, Kenta Sueki, Hirofumi Tomita, Takemasa Miyoshi
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 49

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Reduced non-Gaussianity by 30 s rapid update in convective-scale numerical weather prediction2021

    • Author(s)
      Ruiz Juan、Lien Guo-Yuan、Kondo Keiichi、Otsuka Shigenori、Miyoshi Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

      Volume: 28 Issue: 4 Pages: 615-626

    • DOI

      10.5194/npg-28-615-2021

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Precipitation Ensemble Data Assimilation in NWP Models2020

    • Author(s)
      Miyoshi Takemasa、Kotsuki Shunji、Terasaki Koji、Otsuka Shigenori、Lien Guo-Yuan、Yashiro Hisashi、Tomita Hirofumi、Satoh Masaki、Kalnay Eugenia
    • Journal Title

      Advances in Global Change Research

      Volume: 69 Pages: 983-991

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-3-030-35798-6_25

    • ISBN
      9783030357979, 9783030357986
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] GSMaP RIKEN Nowcast: Global Precipitation Nowcasting with Data Assimilation2019

    • Author(s)
      OTSUKA Shigenori、KOTSUKI Shunji、OHHIGASHI Marimo、MIYOSHI Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 97 Issue: 6 Pages: 1099-1117

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2019-061

    • NAID

      130007759817

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Verification of Precipitation Forecast by Pattern Recognition2019

    • Author(s)
      AWAZU Taeka、OTSUKA Shigenori、MIYOSHI Takemasa
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 97 Issue: 6 Pages: 1173-1189

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2019-066

    • NAID

      130007752569

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Global precipitation forecasts by merging extrapolation-based nowcast and numerical weather prediction with locally-optimized weights2019

    • Author(s)
      Kotsuki, S., K. Kurosawa, S. Otsuka, K. Terasaki, and T. Miyoshi
    • Journal Title

      Weather and Forecasting

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 3 Pages: 701-714

    • DOI

      10.1175/waf-d-18-0164.1

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Comparing Simulated Size Distributions of Precipitation Systems at Different Model Resolution2017

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., N. J. Trilaksono, and S. Yoden
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 13 Issue: 0 Pages: 130-134

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2017-024

    • NAID

      130005781822

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Algorithm development for the 3D precipitation nowcasting with deep learning2022

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S. and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      The 4th R-CCS International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 深層学習による3D降水ナウキャストの高精度化に向けた開発2022

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Development of an integrated NWP-DA-AI system for 30-second-update 3D precipitation prediction2021

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., Y. Maejima, P. Tandeo, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      JpGU2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Toward an integrated NWP-DA-AI system for precipitation prediction2021

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., Y. Maejima, P. Tandeo, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      The 3rd R-CCS International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Toward an integrated NWP-DA-AI system for precipitation prediction2020

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., Y. Maejima, P. Tandeo, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Toward an integrated NWP-DA-AI system for 30-second-update precipitation prediction2020

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., Y. Maejima, P. Tandeo, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      ECMWF-ESA Workshop on Machine Learning for Earth System Observation and Prediction
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 深層学習と数値天気予報の融合による降水予測に向けて2020

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳, 前島康光, Pierre Tandeo, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2020年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Toward hybrid NWP-AI system for precipitation nowcasting2020

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., Y. Maejima, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      2nd IMT Atlantique & RIKEN Joint WS
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A deep-learning approach to three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting2020

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., M. Ohhigashi, V.-P. Huynh, P. Tandeo, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      The 2nd R-CCS International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Verification of precipitation forecast by pattern recognition2020

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., T. Awazu, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      WCRP/SPARC SATIO-TCS joint workshop on Stratosphere-Troposphere Dynamical Coupling in the Tropics
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting with the phased-array weather radar2019

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., M. Ohhigashi, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      2019 6th KNU CARE Workshop on Phase array radar and Nowcasting
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] A deep-learning approach to three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting2019

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., M. Ohhigashi, V. P. Huynh, P. Tandeo, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      39th International Conference on Radar Meteorology
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 深層学習による三次元降水ナウキャスト手法の検討2019

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳, Viet Phi Huynh, 大東真利茂, Pierre Tandeo, 三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] LSTMによる三次元降水ナウキャスト手法2019

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳・三好建正
    • Organizer
      第11回理研・京大データ同化研究会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting with the phased-array weather radar2019

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S.
    • Organizer
      The 5th CREST "BigData Application" Camp for Young Researchers
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A machine-learning approach for three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting2019

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., M. Ohhigashi, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      Workshop IMT Atlantique & RIKEN
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Applying data assimilation to precipitation nowcasting2018

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S. and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      AOGS2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Applying data assimilation to precipitation nowcasting2018

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S. and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      JpGU2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Precipitation nowcasting with Phased-Array Weather Radar: a case of July 2018 record-breaking rainfall in Western Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., M. Ohhigashi, Y. Ishikawa, S. Satoh, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      NHM2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ナウキャストと予測可能性2018

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳
    • Organizer
      第2回理研・気象庁データ同化研究会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Applying data assimilation to precipitation nowcasting2018

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳
    • Organizer
      CREST「ビッグデータ応用」第4回若手研究者合宿
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 神戸PAWRおよびGPM/DPRで観測された平成30年7月豪雨の降水システム2018

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳
    • Organizer
      平成30年7月豪雨に関する緊急対応研究会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] フェーズドアレイ気象レーダを用いた三次元降水ナウキャストの精度評価2018

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳・大東真利茂・三好建正・石川裕・佐藤晋介・牛尾知雄・小池佳奈
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] RIKEN precipitation nowcasting systems2018

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., S. Kotsuki, M. Ohhigashi, Y. Ishikawa, T. Miyoshi, S. Satoh, and T. Ushio
    • Organizer
      The 8th AICS International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 「ビッグデータ同化:未来の天気予報へ」2017

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳
    • Organizer
      豊橋技術科学大学 平成28年度計算技術科学実践教育プログラム 最先端データサイエンス講座
    • Place of Presentation
      豊橋技術科学大学(愛知県・豊橋市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-03-13
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Applying data assimilation to three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting with phased-array weather radar2017

    • Author(s)
      Shigenori Otsuka, Shunji Kotsuki, and Takemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      RISDA2017
    • Place of Presentation
      理化学研究所計算科学研究機構(兵庫県・神戸市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-28
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Applying data assimilation to three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting with phased-array weather radar2017

    • Author(s)
      Shigenori Otsuka, Shunji Kotsuki, and Takemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      The 7th AICS International Symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      神戸大学統合研究拠点(兵庫県・神戸市)
    • Year and Date
      2017-02-23
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Applying data assimilation to three-dimensional precipitation nowcasting with phased-array weather radar2017

    • Author(s)
      Shigenori Otsuka and Takemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      AMS 97th annual meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Seattle, USA
    • Year and Date
      2017-01-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] GSMaP RIKEN Nowcast (GSMaP_RNC): an overview2017

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., S. Kotsuki, and T. Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Comparing observed and simulated size distributions of tropical convective systems2017

    • Author(s)
      Otsuka, S., N. J. Trilaksono, and S. Yoden
    • Organizer
      Joint SPARC Dynamics & Observations Workshop
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] フェーズドアレイ気象レーダを用いた三次元降水補外予測のリアルタイム運用実験2017

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳・三好建正・大東真利茂・佐藤晋介・石川裕
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] ゲリラ豪雨リアルタイム予測に向けて2017

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳
    • Organizer
      CREST若手研究者合宿研究会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] データ同化を適用したリアルタイム降水ナウキャストシステム2017

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳・小槻峻司・近藤圭一・大東真利茂・石川裕・三好建正・佐藤晋介・牛尾知雄
    • Organizer
      第2回理研データ同化ワークショップ
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] フェーズドアレイ気象レーダを用いた3次元降水ナウキャスト2017

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳
    • Organizer
      AIP若手研究交流会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] フェーズドアレイ気象レーダを用いた三次元降水補外予測へのデータ同化の適用2016

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳・三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知県・名古屋市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-10-26
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Space-time extrapolation of precipitation with data assimilation2016

    • Author(s)
      Shigenori Otsuka, Shunji Kotsuki, and Takemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      ISDA2016
    • Place of Presentation
      Reading, UK
    • Year and Date
      2016-06-20
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Convective-scale breeding experiments in WRF simulations at a 100-m resolution2016

    • Author(s)
      Shigenori Otsuka and Takemasa Miyoshi
    • Organizer
      JpGU
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉県・千葉市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-22
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] フェーズドアレイ気象レーダを用いた三次元降水補外予測の実時間実行に向けた検討2016

    • Author(s)
      大塚成徳・三好建正
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2016年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター(東京都・渋谷区)
    • Year and Date
      2016-05-18
    • Related Report
      2016 Research-status Report
  • [Book] "Enhancing data assimilation of GPM observations" in "Precipitation Science"2021

    • Author(s)
      Miyoshi, T., K. Terasaki, S. Kotsuki, S. Otsuka, Y.-W. Chen, K. Kanemaru, K. Okamoto, K. Kondo, G.-Y. Lien, H. Yashiro, H. Tomita, M. Satoh, and E. Kalnay
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • ISBN
      9780128229378
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2016-04-21   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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