Time Series Analysis of U.S. Overseas Troops and Deterrence: U.S. Alliance Policy and the Regional Peace
| Project/Area Number |
16KT0158
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 特設分野 |
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| Research Field |
Conflict Studies
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| Research Institution | Osaka University of Economics |
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Principal Investigator |
KAGOTANI Koji 大阪経済大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (60723195)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-07-19 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | 同盟研究 / 抑止政策 / 在外米軍 / 国際政治理論 / 政治学 / 国際関係論 / 抑止理論 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
U.S. overseas troops have been stationed in American allies to secure the local balance of power favoring allies in a military confrontation. Such an expectation would deter challenges from potential adversaries. People believe that the maintenance of U.S. stationed troops is indispensable for securing American allies. However, the U.S. has been reducing the size of U.S. overseas troops since the end of World War II. The reduction of U.S. overseas troops does not always lead to deterrence failure. Why is that?
The answer is that the U.S. can send a credible signal of its resolve to protect allies through its budgetary decisions. Given the size of the reduction in the federal budget due to economic difficulties, the U.S. can convey its resolve to protect a specific ally by maintaining or marginally reducing the budget for stationed troops in this ally.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
米国の同盟国は、自国の安全保障を自国内に駐留する在外米軍に大きく依存している。他の同盟国よりも自国に駐留する在外米軍の規模が大きいからといって、必ずしも安心であると考えることはできない。米国の複数の同盟国間の相対的な比較は時間を通じて大きく変化することはなく、潜在的な敵国にとって学習の機会を与えない。むしろ、潜在的な敵国は、自国に駐留する在外米軍の規模を直近の過去と比較することを通じて、米国が自国を守ろうとする決意の程度を推論するのである。研究成果の意義は、この潜在的な敵国の学習過程を明らかにし、抑止政策を通じて平和を維持することができる条件についてデータを用いて検証したことにある。
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(16 results)
