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Quantitative Evaluation of the Predictability of Tornado and Gust Phenomena by Cutoff Low

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17H02067
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
Research InstitutionNiigata University

Principal Investigator

Honda Akiharu  新潟大学, 自然科学系, 教授 (20371742)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 山根 省三  同志社大学, 理工学部, 准教授 (10373466)
川瀬 宏明  気象庁気象研究所, 応用気象研究部, 主任研究官 (20537287)
山崎 哲  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), 研究員 (20633887)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥14,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,360,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥5,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,320,000)
Keywords寒冷渦 / 自然災害 / 気象学 / 竜巻 / 偏西風
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The cutoff low is a cold air system in the upper troposphere that often accompanies extreme weather events such as tornadoes and wind gusts that cause disasters. The cutoff-low (COL) index, which objectively evaluates the location of the center, intensity, and radius of influence of the cutoff low, has been developed to improve the lead time for predicting extreme weather events associated with cold extremes. The COL index is available as the COL Map on the "Cutoff Low Tracking and Monitoring System," a website for monitoring cold air behaviors in the upper troposphere at Niigata University.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、偏西風蛇行に伴う寒冷渦の形成・発達過程、寒冷渦から竜巻・突風現象の発現に至る過程の解明を、新たに提唱した寒冷渦指標を架け橋としてグローバル及びローカルの双方からの全く新しい視点のアプローチで目指したものである。このような一連の階層構造の中で、寒冷渦と竜巻・突風現象の間に存在する線状降水帯、前線、渦状擾乱など広域の災害をもたらす大気現象の理解の進展も期待される。また災害をもたらす寒冷渦を数日以上のリードタイムで検知する寒冷渦追跡監視システムの発信する情報が、行政機関、医療機関、産業、地域住民などに活用されることで、十分な余裕をもって防災対策を講じることで相当な減災が期待される。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • 2017 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (51 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Journal Article (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 13 results,  Open Access: 12 results) Presentation (33 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 8 results,  Invited: 2 results) Remarks (5 results)

  • [Journal Article] Seamless Detection of Cutoff Lows and Preexisting Troughs2021

    • Author(s)
      Kasuga Satoru、Honda Meiji、Ukita Jinro、Yamane Shozo、Kawase Hiroaki、Yamazaki Akira
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 149 Pages: 3119-3134

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-20-0255.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] EFSO at different geographical locations verified with observing-system experiments2021

    • Author(s)
      Akira Yamazaki, Takemasa Miyoshi, Jun Inoue, Takeshi Enomoto, and Nobumasa Komori
    • Journal Title

      Weather and Forecasting

      Volume: - Issue: 4 Pages: 1219-1236

    • DOI

      10.1175/waf-d-20-0152.1

    • NAID

      120007089248

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report 2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Regional Characteristics of Future Changes in Snowfall in Japan under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 Scenarios2021

    • Author(s)
      Kawase, H., A. Murata, K. Yamada, T. Nakaegawa, R. Ito, R. Mizuta, M. Nosaka, S. Watanabe, H. Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 17 Issue: 0 Pages: 1-7

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2021-001

    • NAID

      130007976037

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Takeshi Yamazaki, Shiori Sugimoto, Takahiro Sasai, Rui Ito, Takashi Hamada, Masatoshi Kuribayashi, Mikiko Fujita, Akihiko Murata, Masaya Nosaka, Hidetaka Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-17

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-020-0322-x

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Regional Snowfall Distributions in a Japan-Sea Side Area of Japan Associated with Jet Variability and Blocking2019

    • Author(s)
      Yamazaki, A., M. Honda, and H. Kawase
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 97 Issue: 1 Pages: 205-226

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2019-012

    • NAID

      130007593755

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex Events Modulated by the Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss2019

    • Author(s)
      Hoshi Kazuhira、Ukita Jinro、Honda Meiji、Nakamura Tetsu、Yamazaki Koji、Miyoshi Yasunobu、Jaiser Ralf
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 124 Issue: 2 Pages: 858-869

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018jd029222

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Interhemispheric synchronization between the AO and the AAO2018

    • Author(s)
      Tachibana, Y., Y. Inoue, K. K. Komatsu, T. Nakamura, M. Honda, K. Ogata, K. Yamazaki
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 45 Issue: 24 Pages: 13477-13484

    • DOI

      10.1029/2018gl081002

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Influence of weather on the acoustical properties of a ground surface: measurements and models2018

    • Author(s)
      Yumi Kurosaka, Takuya Oshima and Meiji Honda
    • Journal Title

      Noise Control Engineering Journal

      Volume: 66 Issue: 6 Pages: 505-522

    • DOI

      10.3397/1/376643

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Meteorological overview and mesoscale characteristics of the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Tsuguti Hiroshige、Seino Naoko、Kawase Hiroaki、Imada Yukiko、Nakaegawa Toshiyuki、Takayabu Izuru
    • Journal Title

      Landslides

      Volume: 16 Issue: 2 Pages: 363-371

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10346-018-1098-6

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Simulation of Extremely Small Amounts of Snow Observed at High Elevations over the Japanese Northern Alps in the 2015/16 Winter2018

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Akira Yamazaki, Hajime Iida, Kazuma Aoki, Wataru Shimada, Hidetaka Sasaki, Akihiko Murata, and Masaya Nosaka
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 14 Issue: 0 Pages: 39-45

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2018-007

    • NAID

      130006581868

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Characteristics of Synoptic Conditions for Heavy Snowfall in Western to Northeastern Japan Analyzed by the 5-km Regional Climate Ensemble Experiments2018

    • Author(s)
      KAWASE Hiroaki, SASAI Takahiro, YAMAZAKI Takeshi, ITO Rui, DAIRAKU Koji, SUGIMOTO Shiori, SASAKI Hidetaka, MURATA Akihiko, NOSAKA Masaya
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II

      Volume: 96 Issue: 2 Pages: 161-178

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2018-022

    • NAID

      130006681885

    • ISSN
      0026-1165, 2186-9057
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Poleward eddy heat flux anomalies with recent Arctic sea-ice loss2017

    • Author(s)
      Hoshi, K., J. Ukita, M. Honda, K. Iwamoto, T. Nakamura, K. Yamazaki, K. Dethloff, R. Jaiser, and D. Handorf
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 43 Issue: 1 Pages: 446-454

    • DOI

      10.1002/2016gl071893

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Development of an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for the Venusian atmosphere2017

    • Author(s)
      Norihiko Sugimoto, Akira Yamazaki, Toru Kouyama, Hiroki Kashimura, Takeshi Enomoto, and Masahiro Takagi
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 9321-9321

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-017-09461-1

    • NAID

      120006366787

    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 2020/21年冬季の日本海側の大雪にかかわる上空寒気の振る舞い2021

    • Author(s)
      本田 明治, 川瀬 宏明, 山崎 哲
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2020・オンライン)
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2020/21冬季に発生した大雪に対する大気と海洋の温暖化の影響2021

    • Author(s)
      川瀬 宏明, 今田 由紀子, 渡邉 俊一,本田 明治, 山崎 哲
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2020・オンライン)
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 寒冷渦指標でみる2020/21年冬季の日本海側の大雪2021

    • Author(s)
      本田 明治, 川瀬 宏明, 山崎 哲
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2020/21冬季の大雪に工業化以降の温暖化が及ぼす影響2021

    • Author(s)
      川瀬 宏明, 今田 由紀子, 渡邉 俊一, 本田 明治, 山崎 哲
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 寒冷渦・トラフを連続的に捕捉する新客観的強度指標の提唱(その2)2021

    • Author(s)
      春日 悟, 本田 明治, 浮田 甚郎, 山根 省三, 川瀬 宏明, 山崎 哲
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Vortex-vortex interactions for the maintenance of blocking: The selective absorption mechanism2021

    • Author(s)
      A. Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      Atmospheric Blocking Virtual Workshop 2021
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Regional Seamless detection of cutoff low and preexisting trough2020

    • Author(s)
      Honda, M., S. Kasuga, J. Ukita, S. Yamane, H. Kawase, and A. Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly 2020
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 海氷が気象・気候場に及ぼす影響2020

    • Author(s)
      本田明治
    • Organizer
      日本海洋学会2020年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Regional Snowfall Distributions in a Japan-Sea Side Area of Japan Associated with Jet Variability and Blocking2019

    • Author(s)
      Honda, M., A. Yamazaki, H. Kawase
    • Organizer
      27th IUGG General Assembly 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 竜巻等の突風をもたらす寒冷渦・トラフの客観的強度指標の提唱2019

    • Author(s)
      春日悟, 本田明治, 浮田甚郎, 山根省三, 川瀬宏明, 山崎哲
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 新潟での局所降雪分布と亜熱帯・亜寒帯ジェット変動およびブロッキングとの関係2019

    • Author(s)
      山崎哲, 本田明治, 川瀬宏明
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2019年春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2018年1月11-12日新潟市に大雪をもたらした総観場・循環場の特徴2018

    • Author(s)
      本田明治, 春日悟, 伊豫部勉
    • Organizer
      日本雪氷学会2018年度北信越支部大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2018年1月11-12日新潟市に大雪をもたらした総観場の特徴2018

    • Author(s)
      本田明治, 春日悟, 伊豫部勉
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2018・札幌)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2018年1月11-12日新潟市に大雪をもたらした循環場・総観場の特徴2018

    • Author(s)
      本田明治, 春日悟, 伊豫部勉
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 暖候期の京阪奈地域に発達する局地循環の解析2018

    • Author(s)
      山根省三
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本海側中部日本域(新潟)での降雪分布とユーラシアジェット変動・シベリアブロッキングとの関係2018

    • Author(s)
      山崎哲,本田明治,川瀬宏明
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Contribution of global warming to frequency of heavy rainfall in Kyushu Island, Japan, using d4PDF historical and non-warming simulations2018

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Yukiko Imada, Hidetaka Sasaki, Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, Akihiko Murata, Masaya Nosaka
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 15th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 異なる水平解像度の非静力学地域気候モデルを用いた北アルプス周辺の積雪再現実験2018

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明,飯田肇,青木一真,島田亙
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2018・札幌)
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 地球温暖化が近年の西日本の大雨発生頻度に及ぼす影響2018

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明,今田由紀子,村田昭彦,野坂真也,仲江川敏之,佐々木秀孝,高薮出
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2018年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2016/17年冬季の北信越~山陰に大雪をもたらした大気循環場の特徴2017

    • Author(s)
      本田明治, 山崎哲
    • Organizer
      日本雪氷学会2017年度北信越支部大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2016/17年冬季の山陰地方に大雪をもたらした大気循環場の特徴2017

    • Author(s)
      本田明治, 春日悟, 山崎哲, 河島克久
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2017・十日町)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2012年8月6日新潟市のガストフロント発現にかかわる大気場の3次元構造の特徴2017

    • Author(s)
      本田明治, 山根省三, 山崎哲, 川瀬宏明, 春日悟, 河島克久
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 顕著大気追跡監視表示システムによる2016/17年冬季の山陰豪雪事例の解析2017

    • Author(s)
      春日悟, 本田明治, 浮田甚郎
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2017・十日町)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 巻・突風現象発現もたらす寒冷渦の客観的抽出システムの確立にむけて2017

    • Author(s)
      春日悟, 本田明治, 山崎哲, 川瀬宏明, 山根省三
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Multi-scale structure between cut off upper low and tornados2017

    • Author(s)
      Kasuga, S., M. Honda, J. Ukita, and K. Iwamoto
    • Organizer
      The 2017 Joint IAPSO-IAMAS-IAGA Assembly
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Vortex-vortex interactions for the maintenance of atmospheric blocking: The selective absorption mechanism2017

    • Author(s)
      A. Yamazaki:
    • Organizer
      JPGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 大気全球再解析データのダウンスケーリング実験による新潟の降雪分布の再現2017

    • Author(s)
      山崎哲,川瀬宏明
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2017・十日町)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 北極域の寒気放出と東アジアでの大気ブロッキングの年々変動の関係2017

    • Author(s)
      山崎哲
    • Organizer
      日本海洋学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Future changes in extremely heavy winter precipitation around Japan projected by regional climate models2017

    • Author(s)
      H. Kawase
    • Organizer
      AOGS 14th Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 日本における極端に強い降雪発生時の総観場の特徴とその地域特性2017

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 中部山岳域で観測された2015/16年冬季の顕著な少雪の再現実験と要因分析2017

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2017・十日町)
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Influence of atmospheric model resolution on numerical representation of Maputo province gale on October of 20162017

    • Author(s)
      Chongue, L. and S. Yamane
    • Organizer
      2017 Joint IAPSO-IAMAS-IAGA Assembly
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Stability parameters, horizontal atmospheric model resolution and their skill to detect gale2017

    • Author(s)
      Chongue, L. and S. Yamane
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2017年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 新潟大学顕著大気現象追跡監視システム 寒冷渦マップ(COL MAP)

    • URL

      http://naos.env.sc.niigata-u.ac.jp/~coluser/

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 新潟大学顕著大気現象追跡監視システム 寒冷渦マップ(COL MAP)

    • URL

      http://naos.env.sc.niigata-u.ac.jp/~pvuser/index.php

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 新潟地域リアルタイム風情報サイト

    • URL

      http://naos.env.sc.niigata-u.ac.jp/~sc-env/public/index.php

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report 2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Annual Research Report 2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 顕著大気現象追跡監視表示システム

    • URL

      http://naos.env.sc.niigata-u.ac.jp/~pvuser/index.php

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2017 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 顕著大気現象追跡監視システム

    • URL

      http://naos.env.sc.niigata-u.ac.jp/~pvuser/index.php

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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