A Dynamic Model of Consumer Purchase Behavior for Price Promotion : A Real Options Approach

• Project/Area Number: 17K01242
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Social systems engineering/Safety system
• Research Institution: Josai International University (2019); Hokkaido University (2017-2018)
• Principal Investigator: Suzuki Hiroto 城西国際大学, 経営情報学部, 准教授 (10434375)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 後藤 允 北海道大学, 経済学研究院, 准教授 (30434286)
• Project Period (FY): 2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000); Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
• Keywords: マーケティング / 消費者購買行動 / 動的 / 家庭内在庫 / 学習 / 忘却 / 消費者行動 / 意思決定 / 動学的離散選択 / 消費者購買行動モデル / リアルオプション・アプローチ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this research, we developed a new consumer purchasing behavior model applying a real options approach. We developed a stable parameter estimation method using numerical experiments in 2017. We conducted empirical research using actual consumer purchase data in 2018. Additionally, we developed a model to estimate consumer's household inventory. Next, we developed an estimation method of learning and forgetting effect of product quality in order to consider the consumers’ heterogeneity in 2019. Through this research, it is possible to give useful suggestions for formulating effective price promotion strategies for individual consumers.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で開発した動的な消費者購買行動モデルは，不確実性下での不可逆な意思決定問題に適用されるリアルオプション・アプローチを用いていることから，消費者購買行動との親和性が高く，マーケティング・サイエンス領域において新たな分析アプローチの基盤になりうる．さらには，本研究により適切な価格プロモーションの実施タイミング・頻度が明らかになることから，実社会のビッグデータ解析によるマーケティング戦略策定に活用でき，熾烈を極める小売業界に対する貢献が見込まれる．

Research Products

• [Presentation] Do consumers Forget the Product Quality They Learned? (2019)
  • Author(s): Hiroto SUZUKI
  • Organizer: 2nd International Conference on HR Social Science Economics and Business(HRSEB)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Dynamic Model of Consumer Behavior -Purchase, Consumption and Inventories- (2018)
  • Author(s): Susume IMAI, Yuta KIKUCHI, Hiroto SUZUKI
  • Organizer: The 19th Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
  • Int'l Joint Research