| Project/Area Number |
17K01341
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Senshu University |
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Principal Investigator |
SATO KEIICHI 専修大学, ネットワーク情報学部, 教授 (90424192)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | ミクロシミュレーション / 仮設住宅 / 応急修理 / 賃貸住宅 / 非集計行動分析 / ワークショップ / 首都直下地震 / 南海トラフ巨大地震 / 応急仮設住宅 / 広域避難 / 建設仮設住宅 / 借上仮設住宅 / 地震被害想定 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Microsimulation is a useful research approach to make preliminary considerations about temporary housing countermeasure following anticipated disasters. To carry out a reliable microsimulation, census microdata was used, and the household’s behavior model was developed using an Internet-based questionnaire system. Besides, the microdata of rental housing and construction sites of prefabricated housing was generated. Based on these foundational works, a microsimulation model that illustrates the temporary housing situation following an urban disaster was developed. Furthermore, in the Tokyo Metropolitan Government's "Preparation for Response to Temporary Housing Shortage following the anticipated Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake" project, which was proposed and adopted based on this research, several residential workshops and a research committee gathering experts and related organizations were organized. Finally, a policy recommendation was compiled and released.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
災害後の仮住まいは，中長期的な課題で，被災後に対応すれば良いと考えられがちであるが，実際には被災直後から対応が求められるものであり，事前の準備が不可欠と言える．工学的な地震被害想定では，建物被害棟数が計算されるが，住宅被害を受けた世帯が，どのように仮住まいを確保するのか予測はされていない．本研究では，住宅統計やインターネットデータ，インタラクティブな調査システムなどを用いて，仮住まい状況を予測する独自のミクロシミュレーションモデルを開発した．計算結果は，東京都大学提案事業「首都直下地震時の仮設住宅不足への対応準備」において，都民ワークショップや政策提案レポート作成に利用された．
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