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Group Planning Fallacy

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K03884
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Management
Research InstitutionTokyo Metropolitan University

Principal Investigator

Nagase Katsuhiko  東京都立大学, 経営学研究科, 教授 (70237519)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 松井 亮太  山梨県立大学, 国際政策学部, 講師 (20897441)
Project Period (FY) 2017-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Keywords計画 / 計画錯誤 / 個人と集団 / 先延ばし / 衝動性 / 意思決定 / 目標設定理論 / 開梱効果 / 実行 / 集団思考 / 集団極化 / 集団
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In relation to group planning, we examined the effects of students' discussions with other students in planning their study time for periodic examinations. The main findings are as follows. (1) When students first plan their study time individually, discuss their study time with other students, and then plan their own study time again, their planned study time was significantly longer than their initial plan, but their exam scores were not affected. (2) There is no clear difference in planned study time, actual study time, expected score, and actual score between those who planned and those who did not plan. (3) No difference was found in planned study time before discussion, planned study time after discussion, and exam scores between those who were given specific and abstract goals for exam performance.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

一般に重要なプロジェクトを始めるときは計画を立てることが推奨されているが、人間はプロジェクトの期間等について適切に見積もることができない計画錯誤が起こりやすいことが知られている。計画は個人だけでなく集団や組織でも立てられるが、従来の計画錯誤研究は個人レベルの研究がほとんどであった。本研究では計画について他者と相談することがどのように影響するかを調べた点で、集団レベルの研究に対象なりとも踏み出すことができた。本研究では他者と相談することで勉強時間が長くなるが成果に影響はないことが見出されたが、集団レベルでの計画策定が必ずしも個人レベルでの計画を越えるものではないことを示唆しているかもしれない。

Report

(8 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (17 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 7 results) Presentation (8 results)

  • [Journal Article] Planning and unpacking:2023

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      AAOS Transactions

      Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: 28-39

    • DOI

      10.11207/aaostrans.2023-007

    • ISSN
      2758-2795
    • Year and Date
      2023-11-10
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Performance is Affected by Planning and Reflection2022

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      AAOS Transactions

      Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 73-78

    • DOI

      10.11207/aaostrans.11.1_73

    • ISSN
      2758-2795
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 報酬と罰金が非倫理的行動に及ぼす影響:アナグラムを用いた実証研究2022

    • Author(s)
      松井亮太・長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      日本経営倫理学会誌

      Volume: 29 Pages: 165-179

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] What Kind of Plan Will Bring High Performance?2021

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      Transactions of the Academic Association for Organizational Science

      Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 111-116

    • DOI

      10.11207/taaos.10.1_111

    • NAID

      130008077122

    • ISSN
      2186-8530
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 議論は役に立つのか?:目標に向けての議論が計画や成果に及ぼす影響2020

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      組織学会大会論文集

      Volume: 9 Pages: 45-50

    • NAID

      130007891448

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] モラル・ライセンシングに関する一考察:文化と道徳的行動の周知が与える影響2020

    • Author(s)
      千田康介・長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      消防技術安全所報

      Volume: 57 Pages: 175-183

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 目標に向けての議論は役に立つのか?2020

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      首都大学東京経営学研究科 Research Paper Series

      Volume: 29 Pages: 1-9

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Is Planning Useful?: Planning Fallacy of Exam Preparation2019

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Journal Title

      Transactions of the Academic Association for Organizational Science

      Volume: 8 Issue: 1 Pages: 159-164

    • DOI

      10.11207/taaos.8.1_159

    • NAID

      130007695071

    • ISSN
      2186-8530
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impulsivity, Procrastination, and Performance2018

    • Author(s)
      長瀬 勝彦
    • Journal Title

      Transactions of the Academic Association for Organizational Science

      Volume: 7 Issue: 2 Pages: 179-184

    • DOI

      10.11207/taaos.7.2_179

    • NAID

      130007553081

    • ISSN
      2186-8530
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 計画と開梱:複数事項計画は単一事項計画よりも高い成果をもたらすのか2023

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      組織学会研究発表大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 計画と反省が成果に及ぼす影響2022

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      組織学会研究発表大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] どんな計画が高い成果をもたらすのか?2021

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      組織学会研究発表大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 報酬と罰金が非倫理的行動に及ぼす影響:アナグラムを用いた実証研究2021

    • Author(s)
      松井亮太・長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      日本経営倫理学会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] コミットメントが非倫理的行動に及ぼす影響: マトリックス 計算 を用いた実証研究2021

    • Author(s)
      池田泰三・長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      日本経営倫理学会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 議論は役に立つのか?:目標に向けての議論が計画や成果に及ぼす影響2020

    • Author(s)
      長瀬 勝彦
    • Organizer
      2020年度組織学会研究発表大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 議論は役に立つのか?:目標に向けての議論が計画や成果に及ぼす影響2020

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      2020年度組織学会研究発表大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 衝動性・先延ばし・成果2018

    • Author(s)
      長瀬勝彦
    • Organizer
      2018年度組織学会研究発表大会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report

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Published: 2017-04-28   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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