Investigation of the interannual variability of the western Pacific-Indian monsoon and tropical cyclones through the interbasin interactions
| Project/Area Number |
17K14395
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Japan, Meteorological Research Institute |
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Principal Investigator |
Takaya Yuhei 気象庁気象研究所, 全球大気海洋研究部, 主任研究官 (30782289)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2022-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
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| Keywords | 熱帯低気圧 / 季節予測 / アジアモンスーン / 海盆間相互作用 / 台風 / 季節予報 / インド洋 / 気象学 / 気候変動 / モンスーン |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study investigated mechanisms that caused anomalous conditions of the Asian summer monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by performing numerical simulations using the Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal prediction model for summers in 2010, 2016, 2018, and 2020. The series of studies provided a comprehensive understanding of the interannual variability of the western Pacific-Indian monsoon and tropical cyclone activity through the interbasin interactions. In addition, the skillful prediction of the Asian summer monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific one year ahead was demonstrated.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本課題の研究成果により、夏季のアジア域の季節予測可能性をもたらすアジアモンスーンの変動機構に関する知見が得られた。また、最新の季節予報モデルによる夏季アジアモンスーン及び台風活動の予測可能性の詳細な評価を得ることができた。本研究によって得られた知見は、夏季アジアモンスーンと北西太平洋域の熱帯低気圧の年々変動機構と予測可能性に関する理解を進展させ、それらの長期季節予測の現業化と精度向上に大きく貢献すると期待される。さらに、本研究で特定された、夏季アジアの気候変動に鍵となるプロセスに着目して気候予測モデルの性能評価を行うことにより、更なる気候モデルの改良に貢献すると期待される。
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Report
(6 results)
Research Products
(35 results)
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[Journal Article] Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting2019
Author(s)
Klotzbach Philip、Blake Eric、Camp Joanne、Caron Louis-Philippe、Chan Johnny C.L.、Kang Nam-Young、Kuleshov Yuri、Lee Sai-Ming、Murakami Hiroyuki、Saunders Mark、Takaya Yuhei、Vitart Frederic、Zhan Ruifen
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Journal Title
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Volume: 8
Issue: 3
Pages: 134-149
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Journal Article] Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems.2019
Author(s)
Michel Dequ, Tina Dippe, Nick Dunstone, David Fereday, Richard G. Gudgel, Richard J. Greatbatch, Leon Hermanson,Yukiko Imada, Shipra Jain, Arun Kumar, Craig MacLachlan, William Merryfield, Wolfgang A. Muller, Hong‐Li Ren, Doug Smith, Yuhei Takaya, Gabriel Vecchi, Xiaosong Yang
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Journal Title
International Journal of Climatology
Volume: 39
Issue: 2
Pages: 974-988
DOI
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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