| Project/Area Number |
17K14736
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
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| Research Institution | Kanazawa University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥900,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | 都市間交通 / 新幹線 / 携帯電話位置情報データ / 需要予測モデル / 非負値行列因子分解 / ビックデータ / 長距離旅行行動 / 連休効果モデル / 新幹線整備の直接効果と間接効果 / 都市間需要の時系列変動 / 都市間旅行における災害の影響 / 都市間旅行 / 需要予測 / 時系列解析 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this research, we developed a new travel demand forecasting model, focusing on the mobile phone location data which have rich time-series information. The main achievements of this three-year research projects are following two points:
First, we have developed several methods for analyzing mobile phone location data, which has a huge amount of time information but does not have the thinking information such as the purpose of travel. They are mainly following two approaches: decomposition of time-series travel patterns and data-fusion approach for estimating the travel purpose information.
The second is the effect of new High-Speed Rail service on travel behavior has been analyzed in more detail. In particular, we found that travel behavior changes in a pattern that is significantly different from the time-saving effect that has been considered mainly in the past.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究で得られた学術的意義として，以下の２点があげられる．
１点目は，新たに活用可能になった携帯電話位置情報データを前提とした，新たな考え方の需要予測モデルを提案した点である．このモデルによって，従来より時間的にはるかに詳細かつ精度の高い需要予測が可能となった．
２点目は，新幹線開業効果として，本研究で新たに発見した「旅行先価値向上効果」である．これは，従来は扱われなかったが，新幹線開業効果の多くを占めることが明らかになった．そのため，今後の都市間旅客交通ネットワーク設計にかかわる，社会的に非常に重要な発見であるとともに，今後この効果を詳細に解明していくことが求められる．
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