| Project/Area Number |
17K14790
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Town planning/Architectural planning
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido Research Organization |
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Principal Investigator |
SAITO Shigeki 地方独立行政法人北海道立総合研究機構, 建築研究本部北方建築総合研究所, 主査 (20762032)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2017-04-01 – 2020-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | 住宅ストック / 住宅・土地統計調査 / 将来予測 / 国勢調査 / ベイズ統計 / 小規模町村 / 予測モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The purpose of this research is to obtain basic statistical information for planning and implementing various housing policies of towns and villages with relatively small populations. Although the "Housing and Land Survey of Japan" is the basic information for various housing policies, it misses some important data for administrative divisions with population of less than 15000. This study suggests a method of obtaining such information by using statistical analysis, and demonstrates its usefulness.
The analysis consists of following steps (1) collecting basic statistical data and estimating small municipalities data, (2) verifying estimation accuracy and creating a time series data set, and (3) construction of future prediction model of house stock using time series data. This kind of research contributes to the examination and planning of housing policies for countries, prefectures, and municipalities in consideration of future social changes such as population decline.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究の成果は、これまで都道府県、市及び人口が一定以上の町村までしか公開されていなかった住宅ストック構成を、全市町村について把握できるようにするとともに、将来予測を行うものである。この成果により、人口減少による社会的・経済的な影響を強く受ける小規模町村が中長期的見通しに基づき住宅施策等を検討することが可能になる。また、全ての市町村の住宅ストック構成を明らかにすることで、振興局単位、社会生活圏域、経済圏域など任意のまとまりで特徴を把握し、比較することが可能となり、都道府県における住宅施策、防災計画等の検討にも貢献する。
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