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A Risk Score for the Prediction of Carotid Atherosclerosis in the general urban population

Research Project

Project/Area Number 17K19873
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Society medicine, Nursing, and related fields
Research InstitutionNational Cardiovascular Center Research Institute

Principal Investigator

Kokubo Yoshihiro  国立研究開発法人国立循環器病研究センター, 病院, 医長 (20393217)

Project Period (FY) 2017-06-30 – 2020-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2019)
Budget Amount *help
¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Fiscal Year 2017: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywords頸動脈硬化 / プラーク進展 / 循環器病 / 追跡研究 / 危険因子 / リスクスコア / 頸動脈プラーク / 地域住民 / 頸動脈硬化症 / 内膜中膜複合体厚 / 脳卒中 / 虚血性心疾患 / 予防医学
Outline of Final Research Achievements

No prospective study of the relationship between IMT progression and incident CVD has been performed. We studied 4724 participants without CVD who had carotid ultrasonography. Carotid ultrasonographic follow-up was performed every 2 years, newly revealing 193 CCA plaques. During the 59,909 person-years of follow-up, we observed 221 strokes and 154 CHD events. CCA plaque was a risk factor for CVD. Also, we developed a scoring system for each risk factor as follows: 2, 4, 6, 9, and 11 points for age 40's to 80's; -1 point for women; 1, and 2 points for SBP=120-159, and ≧160mmHg; 1, 2, and 3 points for TC=160-239, 240-279, and ≧280mg/dL; 2, and -1 points for HDLC<35 and ≧60mg/dL; 1 point for overweight or current smoking; and 2 points for diabetes. In conclusion, this study provides the first demonstration that new progression of incident CCA plaque is a CVD risk. We have developed a 10-year risk score for the plaque in routine health examinations and outpatients.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

生活習慣の改善のポイントや動脈硬化罹病のリスクスコアーを世界で初めて示すことが出来るため、動脈硬化ガイドラインなどで引用でき、動脈硬化予防に大きく寄与することが可能な研究といえる。これらのエビデンスを用いて、頸動脈エコー検査を実施せずとも、健診や外来のデータを用いてプラーク進展の予測確率を簡便に掲載できることが可能となる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2019 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • 2017 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (36 results)

All 2020 2019 2018 2017 Other

All Journal Article (17 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 17 results,  Open Access: 14 results) Presentation (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 10 results,  Invited: 3 results) Book (3 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Nakai M, Watanabe M, Kokubo Y, Nishimura K, Higashiyama A, Takegami M, Nakao YM, Okamura T, Miyamoto Y.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis

      Volume: 27 Issue: 11 Pages: 1160-1175

    • DOI

      10.5551/jat.48843

    • NAID

      130007933942

    • ISSN
      1340-3478, 1880-3873
    • Year and Date
      2020-11-01
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Small-Dense Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol: A Subclinical Marker for the Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease2020

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Kyoko Honda-Kohmo
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis

      Volume: 27 Issue: 7 Pages: 641-643

    • DOI

      10.5551/jat.ED134

    • NAID

      130007867734

    • ISSN
      1340-3478, 1880-3873
    • Year and Date
      2020-07-01
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Echocardiographic Parameters and the Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: The Suita Study2020

    • Author(s)
      Higashiyama A, Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Nakao YM, Okamura T, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 30 Issue: 4 Pages: 183-187

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20180251

    • NAID

      130007828828

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2020-04-05
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Perinatal Condition Around Birth and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the Japanese General Population: The Suita Study2020

    • Author(s)
      Katsuragi Shinji、Okamura Tomonori、Kokubo Yoshihiro、Watanabe Makoto、Higashiyama Aya、Ikeda Tomoaki、Miyamoto Yoshihiro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis

      Volume: 27 Issue: 3 Pages: 204-214

    • DOI

      10.5551/jat.49577

    • NAID

      130007804185

    • ISSN
      1340-3478, 1880-3873
    • Year and Date
      2020-03-01
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Hypercholesterolemia and Lifetime Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in the General Japanese Population: Results from the Suita Cohort Study2020

    • Author(s)
      Sugiyama D, Turin TC, Yeasmin F, Rumana N, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Takegami M, Kokubo Y, Okamura T, Miyamoto Y.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis

      Volume: 27 Issue: 1 Pages: 60-70

    • DOI

      10.5551/jat.49098

    • NAID

      130007779018

    • ISSN
      1340-3478, 1880-3873
    • Year and Date
      2020-01-01
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] May Measurement Month 2019: The Global Blood Pressure Screening Campaign of the International Society of Hypertension.2020

    • Author(s)
      Beaney T, Schutte AE, Stergiou GS, Borghi C, Burger D, Charchar FJ, Cro S, Diaz AB, Damasceno A, Espeche WG, Jose AP, Khan NA, Kokubo Y, et al
    • Journal Title

      Hypertension

      Volume: 75 Issue: 2 Pages: 333-341

    • DOI

      10.1161/hypertensionaha.120.14874

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Decreased masticatory performance is related to increased intima-media thickness in a general urban Japanese population: The Suita study2020

    • Author(s)
      Kida Momoyo、Ono Takahiro、Kokubo Yoshihiro、Yoshimuta Yoko、Kosaka Takayuki、Kikui Miki、Yamamoto Masa-aki、Ikebe Kazunori、Maeda Yoshinobu、Nokubi Takashi、Nishimura Kunihiro、Watanabe Makoto、Higashiyama Aya、Miyamoto Yoshihiro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Prosthodontic Research

      Volume: 64 Issue: 3 Pages: 346-353

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jpor.2019.10.001

    • NAID

      130007885705

    • ISSN
      1883-1958, 1883-9207
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Periodical utilization of dental services is an effective breakthrough for declining masticatory performance: the Suita study2020

    • Author(s)
      Fujii Katsunori, Kosaka Takayuki, Hasegawa Yoko, Kida Momoyo, Hashimoto Sakae, Fushida Shuri, Nokubi Takashi, Kokubo Yoshihiro, Watanabe Makoto, Higashiyama Aya, Miyamoto Yoshihiro, Ikebe Kazunori, Ono Takahiro
    • Journal Title

      Odontology

      Volume: ‐ Issue: 4 Pages: 1-7

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10266-020-00501-3

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Relationship between thin physique at 6?years and metabolic disease risks in middle‐aged Japanese women: The Suita study2020

    • Author(s)
      Katsuragi Shinji、Okamura Tomonori、Kokubo Yoshihiro、Watanabe Makoto、Higashiyama Aya、Ikeda Tomoaki、Miyamoto Yoshihiro
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research

      Volume: 46 Issue: 3 Pages: 517-526

    • DOI

      10.1111/jog.14206

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Longitudinal Trajectories of Fasting Plasma Glucose and Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Middle Age to Elderly People Within the General Japanese Population: The Suita Study.2019

    • Author(s)
      Ogata S, Watanabe M, Kokubo Y, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Nakai M, Kiyoshige E, Hosoda K, Okamura T, Miyamoto Y.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the American Heart Association

      Volume: 8 Issue: 3

    • DOI

      10.1161/jaha.118.010628

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A Comprehensive policy for reducing sugar beverages foe healthy life extension2019

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y, Higashiyama A, Watanabe M, Miyamoto Y
    • Journal Title

      Environ Health Prev Med

      Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Pages: 13-13

    • DOI

      10.1186/s12199-019-0767-y

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Gene and environmental interactions according to the components of lifestyle modifications in hypertension guidelines.2019

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y、 Padmanabhan S、 Iwashima Y、 Yamagishi K、 Goto A.
    • Journal Title

      Environ Health Prev Med.

      Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Pages: 19-29

    • DOI

      10.1186/s12199-019-0771-2

    • NAID

      120007128165

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Impact of Intima-Media Thickness Progression in the Common Carotid Arteries on the Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the Suita Study2018

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y.Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Nakamura F, Miyamoto Y
    • Journal Title

      J Am Heart Assoc.

      Volume: in press Issue: 11

    • DOI

      10.1161/jaha.117.007720

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report 2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Necessity of Preventive Cardiovascular Disease by Smoke-Free Policies2018

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y, Padmanabhan S
    • Journal Title

      J Am Heart Assoc

      Volume: 7 Issue: 23

    • DOI

      10.1161/jaha.118.011120

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Change in QRS morphology as a marker of spontaneous elimination in verapamil-sensitive idiopathic left ventricular tachycardia.2018

    • Author(s)
      Kawakami H, Aiba T, Ishibashi K, Nakajima I, Wada M, Kamakura T, Inoue Y, Miyamoto K, Okamura H, Nagase S, Noda T, Kokubo Y, Miyamoto Y, Yasuda S, Kamakura S, Kusano K.
    • Journal Title

      J Cardiovasc Electrophysiol

      Volume: 29 Issue: 3 Pages: 446-455

    • DOI

      10.1111/jce.13403

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Development of a Basic Risk Score for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a Japanese General Population ― The Suita Study ―2017

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Kusano Kengo, Miyamoto Y.
    • Journal Title

      Circulation Journal

      Volume: 81 Issue: 11 Pages: 1580-1588

    • DOI

      10.1253/circj.CJ-17-0277

    • NAID

      130006179872

    • ISSN
      1346-9843, 1347-4820
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Diabetes and lifetime risk of coronary heart disease.2017

    • Author(s)
      Turin TC, Okamura T, Rumana N, Afzal AR, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Nakai M, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
    • Journal Title

      Prim Care Diabetes

      Volume: 11 Issue: 5 Pages: 461-466

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.pcd.2017.04.007

    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Blood Pressure Categories and Newly Progression of Carotid Artery Plaques in a prospective cohort study: The Suita Study2019

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      Hypertension 2019 Scientific Sessions
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Development of a Risk Score for Incident Latent Heart Failure in a Japanese General Population: The Suita Study2019

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      American Heart Association Scientific Sessions
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Development of a Basic Risk Score for New Progression of Carotid Plaque: The Suita Study2019

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      European Stroke Organisation Conference
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] THE TRADITIONAL CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH INCIDENT LATENT HEART FAILURE IN A GENERAL JAPANESE POPULATION2019

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      European Society of Hypertension
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Classical risk factors for carotid plaque progression in general urban residents: the Suita Study2019

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      Stroke 2019
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Serum Cholesterol Profiles and New Progression of Carotid Plaque in the General Japanese Population: The Suita Study2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      European Stroke Organisation Conference 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] High Systolic Blood Pressure Is Associated with Incident Latent Heart Failure: The Suita Study2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, FMakoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoko M. Nakao, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      28th European Meeting on Hypertension and Cardiovascular Protection
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A REVIEW OF THE GENE AND ENVIRONMENTAL INTERACTION ACCORDING TO THE COMPONENTS OF LIFESTYLE MODIFICATION APPEARED IN HYPERTENSION GUIDELINE2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Yoshio Iwashima
    • Organizer
      International Society of Hypertension 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Ideal Healthy Lifestyle Components for the Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation in a Community-based Cohort Study with a 14-Year Follow-up: The Suita Study2018

    • Author(s)
      Yoshihiro Kokubo, Makoto Watanabe, Aya Higashiyama, Yoko Nakao, Kengo Kusano, Yoshihiro Miyamoto
    • Organizer
      American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2018
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] B-type Natriuretic Peptides Levels as a Predictor of Atrial Fibrillation in a General Urban Population: The Suita Study2018

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y
    • Organizer
      循環器学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Development of a Basic Risk Score for Incident Atrial Fibrllation in a Japanese General Population.2018

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y
    • Organizer
      循環器学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Chronic kidney disease is a Risk factor for incidence atrial fibrillation in an urban Japanese population: The Suita Study2018

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y
    • Organizer
      The International Society of Nephrology Frontiers Meeting 2018
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Progress of Carotid Atherosclerosis is Associated With Incident Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease: The Suita Study.2018

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y
    • Organizer
      Hypertension Council of American Heart Association
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Common carotid intima-media thickness measurements improve incident cardiovascular disease prediction in the general population: The Suita Study.2018

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y
    • Organizer
      European Society of Hypertension
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 頸動脈内膜中膜複合体厚はサロゲートマーカーたりうるか2018

    • Author(s)
      小久保喜弘
    • Organizer
      日本脳卒中学会
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] Comprehensive Lifestyle Modification for Hypertension and Lifestyle-Related Disease Under the New Guidelines.2017

    • Author(s)
      Kokubo Y, Matsumoto C
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • ISBN
      9780128096574
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Environmental risk factors for stroke and cardiovascular disease2017

    • Author(s)
      Reis J, Giroud M, Kokubo Y
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • ISBN
      9780128096574
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Relationship between vegetables and fruits (antioxidant vitamins, minerals and fiber) intake and risk of cardiovascular disease2017

    • Author(s)
      Ishihara J, Umesawa M, Okada C, Kokubo Y, Iso H
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • ISBN
      9780128096574
    • Related Report
      2017 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 頚動脈プラーク進展はその後の循環器病発症リスクに関係する

    • URL

      http://www.ncvc.go.jp/pr/release/180601-2_press.html

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report 2018 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2017-07-21   Modified: 2022-01-27  

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