Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters

• Project/Area Number: 18730129
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Kobe University
• Principal Investigator: ASHIYA Masahiro Kobe University, 大学院・経済学研究科, 准教授 (10304057)
• Project Period (FY): 2006 – 2008
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2008)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2008: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000); Fiscal Year 2007: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000); Fiscal Year 2006: ¥1,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000)
• Keywords: 合理的期待形成仮説 / 戦略的行動 / 戦略的な予測行動 / 所属業種の影響 / 合理的期待形成仮設

Research Abstract

本研究課題では、「予測情報を顧客獲得に利用している企業は、予測精度を犠牲にしても他企業との差別化を図って、予測的中時の注目度を高めようとする」という仮説を検証し、日本の研究機関の実質GDP予測データにこの仮説が当てはまる事を示した。本研究課題の成果は、Ashiya, M. (2009) "Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters."J. of Forecasting, 28, 120-130.として刊行された。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters (2009)
  • Author(s): Ashiya, M
  • Journal Title: Journal of Forecasting 28(2) Pages: 120-130
  • NAID: 120002508915
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters (2009)
  • Author(s): M. Ashiya
  • Journal Title: Journal of Forecasting 28 Pages: 120-130
  • NAID: 120002508915
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Consensus and Accuracy of Japanese GDP Forecasts (2007)
  • Author(s): M.Ashiya
  • Journal Title: Applied Economics Letters 14(13) Pages: 969-974
  • NAID: 120001740157
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government:Its Year-Ahead GDP Forecast Is Too Optimistic (2007)
  • Author(s): M.Ashiya
  • Journal Title: Japan and the World Economy 19(1) Pages: 395-401
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 日本のフォーキャスターの行動分析 (2007)
  • Author(s): 芦谷政治
  • Journal Title: ESP 12月号 Pages: 30-33
• [Journal Article] Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government : Its Year-Ahead GDP Forecast Is Too Optimistic (2007)
  • Author(s): M.Ashiya
  • Journal Title: Japan and the World Economy 19(1) Pages: 68-85
  • NAID: 120000949743
• [Journal Article] Testing the Rationality of Forecast Revisions Made by the IMF and the OECD (2006)
  • Author(s): M.Ashiya
  • Journal Title: Journal of Forecasting 25(1) Pages: 25-36
  • NAID: 120000944060
• [Journal Article] Are 16-Months-Ahead Forecasts Useful? A Directional Analysis of Japanese GDP Forecasts (2006)
  • Author(s): M.Ashiya
  • Journal Title: Journal of Forecasting 25(3) Pages: 201-207
  • NAID: 120000944761
• [Journal Article] Forecast Accuracy and Product Differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters (2006)
  • Author(s): M.Ashiya
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Forecasting 22(2) Pages: 395-401
  • NAID: 120000949748