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Future simulation of financial impact of social security and tax

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18H04070
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Medium-sized Section 58:Society medicine, nursing, and related fields
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

HASHIMOTO HIDEKI  東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 教授 (50317682)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 飯塚 敏晃  東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 教授 (00406810)
松居 宏樹  東京大学, 大学院医学系研究科(医学部), 助教 (70608794)
合田 和生  東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 准教授 (80574699)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥42,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥32,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,840,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥10,140,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,340,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥11,050,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,550,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥10,140,000 (Direct Cost: ¥7,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,340,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥11,310,000 (Direct Cost: ¥8,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,610,000)
Keywords高齢社会 / ミクロシミュレーション / 社会保障 / 疾病推計 / 人口高齢化 / 社会保障負担 / 疾病負担 / 将来推計 / ミクロシミュレータ / 疾病・障害
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The current research project aimed at developing a microsimulation system to project disease burden and labor supply of old people aged 60 and over in order to estimate the net impact of population ageing onto the nation’s economy. As of 2043, the simulation results indicated that the total cost of formal medical and long-term care service for aged 60 and over will reach 360 billion USD, while the expected total labor-supply will reach about 390 billion USD (the value as of 2016). The results indicated that closing the gender inequality in labor participation, especially women with higher education, will had a larger impact compared to the improvement of population health by health promotion activities.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ミクロシミュレーションを用いることで、健康状態・機能状態・就労参加など多様な高齢者の像を踏まえた将来インパクトの推計が示された。近未来の高齢社会日本では、高齢者の健康機能状態は保たれており、学歴向上による就労参加・生産性向上が見込まれることから、社会保障費の削減問題に留めず、より人材開発的な観点から政策議論する必要があることが確認された。一方、学歴や性別による健康状態・就労状況の格差が広がる可能性が懸念された。本研究の成果は、ミクロシミュレータを用いて、高齢者の多様性を踏まえた高齢社会研究を切り開くとともに、高齢社会の維持可能性を高める政策議論に対して一石を投じるものとなった。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • 2018 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All 2022 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 3 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (1 results) (of which Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Stanford University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Stanford大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University College London(英国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Stanford University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Projecting prevalence of frailty and dementia and the economic cost of care in Japan from 2016 to 2043: a microsimulation modelling study,2022

    • Author(s)
      Megumi Kasajima, Karen Eggleston, Shoki Kusaka, Hiroki Matsui, Tomoki Tanaka, Bo-Kyung Son, Katsuya Iijima, Kazuo Goda, Masaru Kitsuregawa, Jay Bhattacharya, Hideki Hashimoto,
    • Journal Title

      The Lancet Public Health

      Volume: 7 Issue: 5 Pages: e458-e468

    • DOI

      10.1016/s2468-2667(22)00044-5

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross-sectional data2020

    • Author(s)
      Kasajima Megumi、Hashimoto Hideki、Suen Sze‐Chuan、Chen Brian、Jalal Hawre、Eggleston Karen、Bhattacharya Jay
    • Journal Title

      Health Economics

      Volume: 30 Issue: S1 Pages: 30

    • DOI

      10.1002/hec.3986

    • URL

      https://pure.teikyo.jp/en/publications/d585cd21-94c7-4b78-b7e1-8e21fcb325b9

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report 2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Social policies and change in education-related disparities in mortality in Japan, 2000?20102020

    • Author(s)
      Kasajima Megumi、Hashimoto Hideki
    • Journal Title

      SSM - Population Health

      Volume: 12 Pages: 100692-100692

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100692

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Future Projection of the Health and Functional Status of Older People in Japan: A Pseudopanel Microsimulation Model2019

    • Author(s)
      Megumi Kasajima,Hideki Hashimoto,Sze-Chuan Suen,Brian Chen,Karen Eggleston,Jay Bhattacharya
    • Journal Title

      Asia Health Policy Program working paper # 55

      Volume: 55 Pages: 0-45

    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Future projection of health trajectory and health disparity in the super-aged society in Japan2018

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto H, Kasajima M, Iwamoto T
    • Organizer
      Impact of Inequality on the Future Elderly; Policy Tools and Actions, OECD head quarter
    • Related Report
      2018 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] Health in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Brenner E, Cable N, Iso H.
    • Total Pages
      368
    • Publisher
      Oxford University Press
    • ISBN
      9780198848134
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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