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Synthetic Studies on Measurement of Credit Risk for Fluctuations in Financoal Asset Values using Cumulative Impulse Response in Different Fields of Business

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K01713
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
Research InstitutionAichi Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

Nakagawa Toshio  愛知工業大学, 経営学部, 研究員 (60076544)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 水谷 聡志  愛知工業大学, 経営学部, 教授 (40469060)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Keywords信頼性 / 保全性 / リスク管理 / 確率過程 / 保全計画 / 損傷モデル / 最適保全方策 / 確率モデル / 費用最小化 / 点検計画 / リスク測定 / 最適方策 / 累積損傷過程 / 保全方策 / 取替問題 / 資産価格の変動特性 / 累積インパルス応答
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, we have proposed some theoretic models for measuring a credit risk of financial information systems in different fields of business, and verified to support their stability using a computer simulation. These models have been formed by applying the theory of stochastic processes. Some examples and discussions for such models have been done numerically and theoretically. Especially, from the view point of financial information systems, we have made the following assumption about some models: The investing and financing of business are regarded as one kind of impulses, and their cumulative impulses might affect seriously financial information systems. Some useful results have been obtained by applying optimization problems of computer resources in maintenance and reliability theory. It is now under consideration to apply these results to real financial problems. Our research results have been presented at many conferences and published in international journals.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では,企業体組織の投資行動が経済に与える変動や経済波及効果によって,変動エネルギーが蓄積されると仮定した.企業の投資行動が金融情報システムに与える影響は業種によって変動特性が異なると仮定し,理論モデルを作成した.また,具体的なパラメータに対して数値例を示し,種々議論を行った.学術的意義として,新たな確率モデルの構築と解析法の提案が挙げられる.社会的意義として,これらの数値結果を実施の金融情報システムの適用することで,信用リスクを計測し安定化を支援することができる.また,企業における投資活動,資金調達活動,保全保守活動の最適な計画実施のためのシミュレーションモデルとして適用可能である.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (41 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results) Presentation (31 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 13 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Age and periodic replacement policies with two failure modes in general replacement models2021

    • Author(s)
      Mizutani Satoshi、Zhao Xufeng、Nakagawa Toshio
    • Journal Title

      Reliability Engineering & System Safety

      Volume: 214 Pages: 107754-107754

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ress.2021.107754

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Periodic replacement policies with shortage and excess costs2021

    • Author(s)
      Zhao Xufeng、Chen Mingchih、Nakagawa Toshio
    • Journal Title

      Annals of Operations Research

      Volume: 311 Issue: 1 Pages: 469-487

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10479-020-03566-z

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Which Replacement Is Better at Working Cycles or Number of Failures2020

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, X. Zhao and T. Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      IEICE Transactions on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences

      Volume: E103.A Issue: 2 Pages: 523-532

    • DOI

      10.1587/transfun.2019EAP1049

    • NAID

      130007793366

    • ISSN
      0916-8508, 1745-1337
    • Year and Date
      2020-02-01
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Optimal training plans on physical performance considering supercompensation2020

    • Author(s)
      Naoya Wada, Kodo Ito & Toshio Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      Communication in Statistics-Theory and Methods

      Volume: 15 Issue: 15 Pages: 3761-3771

    • DOI

      10.1080/03610926.2020.1722845

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Approximate calculations of age-based random replacement times2020

    • Author(s)
      Xufeng Zhao, Chen Gao, Cunhua Qian & Toshio Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      Communication in Statistics-Theory and Methods

      Volume: 15 Issue: 15 Pages: 3808-3820

    • DOI

      10.1080/03610926.2019.1710203

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Preventive replacement policies with products update announcements2020

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani, Wenjie Dong, Xufeng Zhao & Toshio Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      Communication in Statistics-Theory and Methods

      Volume: 15 Issue: 15 Pages: 3821-3833

    • DOI

      10.1080/03610926.2019.1710762

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Random Age Replacement Policies with Periodic Planning Times2019

    • Author(s)
      Mizutani Satoshi、Zhao Xufeng、Nakagawa Toshio
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering

      Volume: 26 Issue: 05 Pages: 1950023-1950023

    • DOI

      10.1142/s0218539319500232

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 単位時間当りの期待費用を最小にする逐次点検時刻計算手法2022

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会, 2022年春季発表会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 拡張年齢取替方策を適用した冗長システムの数値例による比較考察2021

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 (2021-05-28)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 単位時間当りの期待費用を最小にする点検方策の数値解析2021

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 (2021-07-17)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Nine Memorial Research Works2021

    • Author(s)
      Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The Reliability and Maintenance Engineering Summit 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Replacement First and Last Policies With Random Times for Redundant Systems2021

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani
    • Organizer
      The Reliability and Maintenance Engineering Summit 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Backup Policies with Random Data Updates2021

    • Author(s)
      Xufeng Zhao, Iiajia Cai, Cunhua Qian, Mingchih Chen, Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The Reliability and Maintenance Engineering Summit 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Traceability Problems in Preventive Maintenance Policies2021

    • Author(s)
      Xufeng Zhao, Hongshuang Feng, Mingchih Chen, Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      26th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Optimal Inspection Policies Minimizing Expected Cost Rates2021

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani, Xufeng Zhao, Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      26th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Application of Inspection Policy to Social Integration2021

    • Author(s)
      Takahito Araki, Mitsutaka Kimura, Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      26th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Periodic and Sequential Inspection Policies with Mission Failure Probabilities2020

    • Author(s)
      Xufeng Zhao, Xujie Jia, Mingchih Chen, Cunhua Qian, Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The 9th Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling (APARM 2020)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Random Replacement Policies for Two Failure Modes2020

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani, Xufeng Zhao, Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The 9th Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling (APARM 2020)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 二つの故障モードを考慮したオーバタイム取替方策2020

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会2020年度春季研究発表会(アブストラクト集)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] ランダムK-out-of-nシステムを応用した冗長システムに対する保全方策2020

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Two Replacement Policies for Two Failure Modes2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, X. Zhao and T. Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The 11th International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR 2019)S. Mizutani, X. Zhao and T. Nakagawa
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Optimum Backup Policies with Duplicated Data2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Nakamura, X. Zhao and M. Arafuka
    • Organizer
      25th ISSAT International Conference Reliability and Quality in Design (ISSAT 2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Replacement Policies for An Independent Damage Proces2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, X. Zhao and T. Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      25th ISSAT International Conference Reliability and Quality in Design (ISSAT 2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Overtime Replacement Policies for Two Failure Modes2019

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, X. Zhao and T. Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The 20th Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering and Management Systems Conference (APIEMS 2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 仕事の完了回数と故障回数との取替方策替の比較2019

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志, 中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会2019年度春季研究発表会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2つの故障モードに対する再早・最遅取替方策2019

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志, 中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 R2019-1
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2種類の損傷をもつ独立損傷モデルの取替方策2019

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志, 中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会2019年度秋季研究発表会アブストラクト集
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 複数回の損傷で取替を実施する独立損傷モデルの取替方策2019

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志, 中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 R2019-40
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 不完全情報に基づくノイズ情報を含むデータベース修復の最適方策2019

    • Author(s)
      中村正治,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 R2019-40
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 仕事の完了回数と故障回数との取替方策替の比較2019

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志, 中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会2019年度春季研究発表会アブストラクト集 (2019.3)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 故障を伴うビッグデータ保存サーバの最適データ配置2018

    • Author(s)
      中村正治(金城学院大), 中川覃夫(愛知工大)
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会 信頼性研究会 (2018-07-27)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Random Age Replacement Policies at Periodic Times2018

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, T. Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The 11th International Symposium on Safety Science and Techology (ISSST 2018), Shanghai, China (2018.8)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Extended Replacement First and Last Policies with Notification of Maintenance2018

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, C. Qian, T. Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The 11th International Symposium on Safety Science and Techology (ISSST 2018), Shanghai, China (2018.8)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Which is Better to Replace at Number of Works or Failure2018

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, X. Zhao, T. Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling (APARM 2018), Qingdao, Shandong, China (2018.8)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Optimization of Data Relocation Process with Access Failures2018

    • Author(s)
      S. Nakamura, T. Nakagawa, M. Arafuka
    • Organizer
      Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling (APARM 2018), Qingdao, Shandong, China (2018.8)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Inspection Models with Minimal Repair2018

    • Author(s)
      K. Ito, S. Mizutani, T. Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      1st International Conference on Defence Techology (ICDT 2018), Beijing, China (2018, 10)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 取替実施のための通知とオーバタイムを考慮した取替方策2018

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志, 中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会2018年度秋季研究発表会アブストラクト集 (2018.9)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 仕事の完了回数と故障回数で取替を実施する方策の比較2018

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志, 中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 (2018.12)
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Handbook of Advanced Performability Engineering (chapter 23: WIB (Which-Is-Better) Problems in Maintenance Reliability Policies))2021

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani, Xufeng Zhao, Toshio Nakagawa (Eds. K.B. Misra)
    • Total Pages
      809
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9783030557348
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Handbook of Advanced Performability Engineering2021

    • Author(s)
      Misra, Krishna B. (Ed.)
    • Total Pages
      811
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9783030557324
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Reliability and Statistical Computing, Modeling, Methods and Applications2020

    • Author(s)
      Hoang. Pham (Ed.)
    • Total Pages
      317
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9783030434113
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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