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Study on Statistical Evaluation of Record Maximum Rainfall and Flood Discharge by Bayes' theorem

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18K05879
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 41030:Rural environmental engineering and planning-related
Research InstitutionOkayama University

Principal Investigator

Chikamori Hidetaka  岡山大学, 環境生命科学学域, 教授 (40217229)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 工藤 亮治  岡山大学, 環境生命科学学域, 准教授 (40600804)
Project Period (FY) 2018-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Keywordsメタ統計的極値分布 / 区間最大値法 / 極値統計 / 地域頻度解析 / 地域分類 / 日雨量時系列 / 極値 / 経年変化 / 外れ値 / 水文統計 / ベイズ理論
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study was to examine a method for more accurate estimation of extreme values from limited data at the beginning, and initially used the Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on Bayesian statistical ideas that have been widely used in recent years. Firstly, extreme statistical analysis using the conventional annual maximum value method and threshold excess method were applied and evaluated, but as we proceeded with the research, we found a meta-statistical extreme value (MEV) distribution that uses all rainfall time series data. Comparison between the application results of the MEV method and those of the annual maximum method showed that the return level of rainfall can be estimated by suppressing the influence of a small number of extremely large peculiar data by the MEV method.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

近年,洪水・渇水などの極端な気象現象の発生頻度が増加している。これらの極端現象は気候変動に伴うとされ,その規模・発生頻度は経年的に変化している。これらの統計的推定には,従来,年最大値のみを用いる区間最大値法が用いられてきたが,解析に用いることができるデータのサイズが限られるため,少数の極端な値を持つ値により,確率年・確率雨量が大きな影響を受け,その推定精度に問題があった。ここで研究対象としてMEV法は,大正期間中の観測データ全てを用いて極値を推定する手法であり,限られた数の極端なデータの影響が小さく,安定した確率雨量,確率年の推定が期待される。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2021 2020 2019 2018

All Journal Article (1 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] 年最大日雨量データの「外れ値」の統計的評価2021

    • Author(s)
      近森秀高・工藤亮治
    • Journal Title

      応用水文

      Volume: 33 Pages: 123-132

    • NAID

      130007554098

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] メタ統計的極値分布を用いた確率日雨量の経年変化の推定2021

    • Author(s)
      丸尾啓太・近森秀高・工藤亮治
    • Organizer
      2021年度 農業農村工学会大会講演会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 西日本地域における確率日雨量の経年変化とその地域特性2020

    • Author(s)
      近森秀高・工藤亮治・福田温巳
    • Organizer
      令和2年度 農業農村工学会大会講演会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 地域頻度解析を用いた極値降水データの「外れ値」の統計的評価2019

    • Author(s)
      近森秀高・工藤亮治・近藤祐平
    • Organizer
      令和元年度 農業農村工学会大会講演会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Statistical Evaluation of Outliers of Extreme Values in Daily Rainfall Records in Japan by Using Regional Frequency Analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Hidetaka Chikamori
    • Organizer
      16th Annual Meeting of Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Frequency analysis of heavy rain events in western Japan based on the compound Poisson model considering their causes2019

    • Author(s)
      Hidetaka Chikamori
    • Organizer
      2019 International Symposium on Stochastic Environment and Water Resources (ISEWR 2019)
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 極値降水データの「外れ値」の統計的評価2018

    • Author(s)
      近森秀高,工藤亮治,三宅佑季
    • Organizer
      平成30年度農業農村工学会大会講演会
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report

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Published: 2018-04-23   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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