| Project/Area Number |
18K11629
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 63010:Environmental dynamic analysis-related
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
Ohta Shunji 早稲田大学, 人間科学学術院, 教授 (10288045)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
福井 眞 国立研究開発法人水産研究・教育機構, 水産資源研究所(横浜), 主任研究員 (90754573)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-04-01 – 2023-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
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| Keywords | 地球温暖化 / 感染症 / 感染症媒介蚊 / 個体群動態 / 個体群動態モデル / 降水量変化 / 生態系影響評価 / 降水 / 気温 / 感染症媒介生物 / 降水量影響評価 / 降水影響評価 / 気候変化 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Aedes albopictus, a vector mosquito in temperate regions, undergoes egg diapause while overwintering. To assess the prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, this study aimed to simulate and predict mosquito population dynamics under estimated future climatic conditions. In this study, we tailored the physiology- based climate-driven mosquito population model for temperate mosquitoes to incorporate egg diapauses for overwintering. We also investigated how the incorporation of the effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity (into a model) changes the population dynamics of this species under future climate conditions. The model was constructed to simulate mosquito population dynamics, and the parameters of egg diapause and rainfall effects were estimated for each model to fit the observed data in Tokyo. We applied the global climate model data to the model and observed an increase in the mosquito population under future climate conditions.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
現在進行している気候変化は将来も続き、それにともなって生物の生息域も変化する。感染症を媒介する生物もその例外ではない。本研究ではデング熱を媒介する日本にも多く存在する温帯性のヒトスジシマカ（Aedes albopictu）が将来の東京において、拡大するのか、しないのか、その時期はいつか、を予測することに成功した。
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