Economic Analysis of Uncertainty and Firm Growth

• Project/Area Number: 18K18567
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 7:Economics, business administration, and related fields
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: OHYAMA Atsushi 一橋大学, 大学院経営管理研究科, 准教授 (20598825)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 田中 万理 一橋大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 講師 (70792688)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-06-29 – 2021-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
• Budget Amount: ¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
• Keywords: 不確実性 / 企業成長

Outline of Final Research Achievements

How do firms recognize uncertainty? The data analysis of this study shows that the recognition of business uncertainty is influenced by not only firms' own perception but also those of their trading partners. We also find that a degree of uncertainty decreases as the number of trading partners increases. This could mean that a variety of trading partners and information sharing among them contribute to reducing uncertainty. The data analysis of this research also reveal that uncertainty is an important factor for discouraging the formation of transactional relationships. Uncertainty can be a source of economic shocks, and these shocks can be transmitted from one firm to another through transactional networks. This research show that negative economic shocks amplify when transactional networks are asymmetric in industries or regions.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

現実の経済活動において、企業などの経済主体は不確実性の下で様々な意思決定を行なっている。したがって、どのように企業が不確実性を捉えて行動し、どのような結果がもたらされるかを分析することは、企業行動を理解する上で重要な研究課題である。また、経済政策の立案において考慮すべき事でもあり、社会的にも重要な課題である。取引関係を通じて不確実性の認識が影響されることをデータ分析で示したことは、新たな知見の蓄積に貢献している。取引ネットワークとショックの伝播の関係は、ネットワークの特性が各産業や各地域におけるショックの伝播に影響することを示しており、経済政策の立案に重要な視点を提供している。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] Stanford University/University of Southern California(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] US Census Bureau/Stanford University/University of Southern California(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Stanford University/University of Southern California(米国)
• [Journal Article] COVID19 拡大による経済ショック : 企業間取引ネットワークからの考察 (2020)
  • Author(s): 今仁 裕輔、大山睦、平岩拓也、平峰芳樹
  • Journal Title: TDB-CAREE Discussion Paper Series Volume: - Pages: 1-19
• [Journal Article] Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy (2019)
  • Author(s): Tanaka Mari、Bloom Nicholas、David Joel M.、Koga Maiko
  • Journal Title: Journal of Monetary Economics Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 26-41
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.02.008
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A Role of Management Practices as Productivity Enhancement Device (2020)
  • Author(s): 大山 睦
  • Organizer: イノベーション能力の構築とインセンティブ設計研究会
• [Presentation] A Role of Management Practices as Productivity Enhancement Device (2020)
  • Author(s): 大山 睦
  • Organizer: 北海道大学REBEN研究会
• [Presentation] 企業のマネジメントと生産性 (2020)
  • Author(s): 大山 睦
  • Organizer: 一橋大学政策フォラーム
• [Presentation] JP MOPS and Transactional Data (2019)
  • Author(s): Atsushi Ohyama
  • Organizer: International Management and Organizational Practices Survey Conference
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Overview of JP MOPS (2018)
  • Author(s): Atsushi Ohyama
  • Organizer: Empirical Management Conference
• [Presentation] Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy (2018)
  • Author(s): Mari Tanaka
  • Organizer: Developing and Using Business Expectations Data
• [Remarks] JP MOPSプロジェクト
  • URL: https://www.iir.hit-u.ac.jp/jpmopsproject/