| Project/Area Number |
18K18781
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 17:Earth and planetary science and related fields
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| Research Institution | Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology (2022-2023)
The University of Tokyo (2018-2021) |
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Principal Investigator |
HIBIYA Toshiyuki 東京海洋大学, その他部局等, 博士研究員 (80192714)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2018-06-29 – 2024-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥6,370,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,470,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
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| Keywords | メガ津波 / 民間航空機 / 南海トラフ / 電波高度計 / 高精度津波予報システム |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this study, we have focused on continuously flying commercial aircraft covering a wide range of representative epicenter areas where mega-tsunamis may occur in the future, and evaluated the capability of an aircraft observations in accurate and rapid tsunami prediction. Numerical experiments of the Nankai Trough mega-tsunami, which is expected to occur in the near future, have shown that the initial wave source distribution of the tsunami can be accurately estimated by aircraft observations.
We also applied this method to the case of a meteo-tsunami that actually struck the western coast of Kyushu in March 2010, and found that the method was sufficient to capture the actual waveform of a meteo-tsunami propagating in the East China Sea toward the western coast of Kyushu.
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究は、津波の迅速かつ高精度な予測の実現に向け、民間航空機を利用して震源に近い沖合で発生直後の津波を直接捉える新たな観測方法の可能性を検討した意欲的な研究である。
実際、仮想的な数値実験の結果から、この手法は近未来に発生が予想される南海トラフでの巨大津波の予報や、九州西方沿岸域にしばしば襲来する気象津波「あびき」の予報に向けて非常に有用なものであることが示された。今後解決すべき問題も多いが、民間航空機による津波予測が可能となれば、日本のみならず世界各地で発生する地震津波の早期検知が可能となり、津波被害の著しい低減につなげていけるものと期待できる。
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