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Prediction of and evacuation from flood disaster in snowmelt season based on Soil Water Index and decision tree model -A case study of Tomsk city, Russia-

Research Project

Project/Area Number 18KK0028
Research Category

Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (B))

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Medium-sized Section 4:Geography, cultural anthropology, folklore, and related fields
Research InstitutionTokyo Metropolitan University

Principal Investigator

MATSUYAMA Hiroshi  東京都立大学, 都市環境科学研究科, 教授 (50264586)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 中山 大地  東京都立大学, 都市環境科学研究科, 助教 (90336511)
根元 裕樹  東京都立大学, 学術情報基盤センター, 准教授 (90805574)
齋藤 仁  名古屋大学, 環境学研究科, 准教授 (00709628)
Project Period (FY) 2018-10-09 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,990,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥690,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Keywords土壌雨量指数 / 決定木 / 融雪災害 / トムスク市 / 避難行動
Outline of Final Research Achievements

(1) By incorporating snowfall-accumulation-snowmelt processes into Soil Water Index, we succeeded to reproduce the occurrence of snowmelt disasters at Tomsk City, Russia.
(2) We investigated the extreme atmospheric phenomena around Southern Siberia (including Tomsk City). In the Southern Siberia, temperature rise in March is outstanding, and the year-to-year variability of precipitation in spring is large. Therefore it is apt to occur snowmelt-related disasters in spring in future.
(3) Using GIS and multi-agent simulation, we investigated evacuation behavior at Tomsk City. By the flood, the city is divided into northern and southern parts which affects the evacuation behavior of the people. When people go to shelters from main streets via small alleys, traffic jams occur at intersections which requires more time for the evacuation.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

土壌雨量指数は,日本国内の土砂災害発生を予測するために開発されたものであり,外国における適用事例はそれほど多いわけではなかった.しかも,降雪-積雪-融雪過程を取り入れて,融雪災害の発生時期を特定する研究は皆無であり,日本国内だけでなく外国でも適用できる(汎用性がある)ことを実証的に示すことができた.
また,シベリア南部における気象要素の長期変動を調べたり,トムスク市で極端現象が発生した2012年の事例解析を行なうことによって,将来の融雪災害発生危険性について指摘することがてきた.
さらに,融雪災害発生時の避難行動シミュレーションを行なうことによって,災害発生時に気を付けるべきことを指摘できた.

Report

(7 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • 2018 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (34 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (6 results) Journal Article (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 10 results) Presentation (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Invited: 7 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] トムスク国立大学(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] トムスク国立大学(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] トムスク国立大学(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] トムスク国立大学(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] トムスク国立大学(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] トムスク国立大学(ロシア連邦)

    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Long-term trends of extreme climate indexes in the southern part of Siberia in comparison with those of surrounding regions2023

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, T., Matsuyama, H., Kuzhevskaia, I., Nechepurenko, O., Chursin, V. and Zemtsov, V.
    • Journal Title

      Atmosphere

      Volume: 14, Issue: 7 Pages: 1131-1131

    • DOI

      10.3390/atmos14071131

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Extreme drought around Tomsk, Russia in summer 2012 in comparison with other regions in Western Siberia2023

    • Author(s)
      Matsuyama, H., Watanabe, T. and Zemtsov, V.
    • Journal Title

      Water

      Volume: 15 Issue: 3 Pages: 388-388

    • DOI

      10.3390/w15030388

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 日露協働によるシベリアの環境変化研究2022

    • Author(s)
      飯島慈裕・松山 洋
    • Journal Title

      E-journal GEO

      Volume: 17 Issue: 1 Pages: 165-168

    • DOI

      10.4157/ejgeo.17.165

    • ISSN
      1880-8107
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Experience of GIS modeling of extreme floods on Siberian rivers2021

    • Author(s)
      Khromykh, V., Khromykh, O. and Nakayama, D.
    • Journal Title

      Ukrainian Journal of Ecology

      Volume: 11 Pages: 368-372

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] River flow hydrograph simulation using HBV-light model (an example of small rivers at Tomsk city, Western Siberia, Russia)2021

    • Author(s)
      Zemtsov, V. A., Kopysov, S. G., Matsuyama, H. and Negrul, S. V.
    • Journal Title

      Ukrainian Journal of Ecology

      Volume: 11 Pages: 406-409

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 西シベリアで増加する極端気象-地球温暖化に関連して-2021

    • Author(s)
      渡邊貴典・松山 洋
    • Journal Title

      図説 世界の地域問題 100

      Volume: なし Pages: 104-105

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Application of Soil Water Index to landslide prediction in snowy regions: Sensitivity analysis in Japan and preliminary results from Tomsk, Russia-2021

    • Author(s)
      Matsuyama, H., Saito, H. and Zemtsov, V.
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 8(17) Issue: 1

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-021-00408-9

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Report of Gorno-Altaisk, Russia in 20192020

    • Author(s)
      松山 洋
    • Journal Title

      JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

      Volume: 33 Issue: 1 Pages: 11-16

    • DOI

      10.3178/jjshwr.33.11

    • NAID

      130007795327

    • ISSN
      0915-1389, 1349-2853
    • Year and Date
      2020-01-05
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Analysis of climatic extremity since the 1950s in the mountain Altai territory2020

    • Author(s)
      Kuzhevskaia, I.V., Nechepurenko, O.E., Chursin, V.V. and Matsuyama, H.
    • Journal Title

      Geosphere Research

      Volume: 2020(3) Issue: 3 Pages: 97-108

    • DOI

      10.17223/25421379/16/8

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] River flow hydrograph simulation in the western Siberia lowland north for the extreme flood flow prediction based on the HBV-light model2020

    • Author(s)
      Kopysov, S. G., Zemtsov, V. A., Matsuyama, H. and Eliseev, A. O.
    • Journal Title

      Geosphere Research

      Volume: 2020(4) Issue: 4 Pages: 108-120

    • DOI

      10.17223/25421379/17/9

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Comparison of precipitable water via JRA-55 and GPS in Japan considering different elevations2020

    • Author(s)
      Matsuyama, H., Flores, J., Oikawa, K. and Miyaoka, K.
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Research Letters

      Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Pages: 9-16

    • DOI

      10.3178/hrl.14.9

    • NAID

      130007786740

    • ISSN
      1882-3416
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Report of Tomsk, Russia in 20182019

    • Author(s)
      松山 洋
    • Journal Title

      JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

      Volume: 32 Issue: 2 Pages: 103-108

    • DOI

      10.3178/jjshwr.32.103

    • NAID

      130007655389

    • ISSN
      0915-1389, 1349-2853
    • Year and Date
      2019-03-05
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 書評(永山ゆかり・吉田 睦編: アジアとしてのシベリア ロシアの中のシベリア先住民世界)2019

    • Author(s)
      松山 洋
    • Journal Title

      地理学評論

      Volume: 92 Pages: 194-195

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 書架(Pyak, A. I. et al. Endemic plants of the Altai mountain country)2019

    • Author(s)
      松山 洋
    • Journal Title

      地理

      Volume: 64(8) Pages: 120-120

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 河川氾濫時の避難行動シミュレーション~ロシア・トムスク市を事例に~2022

    • Author(s)
      稲垣京佑・中山大地・松山 洋・Khromykh, V.・Khromykh, O.
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会 2022 年春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] シンポジウム「日露協働によるシベリアの環境変化研究」趣旨説明2022

    • Author(s)
      松山 洋
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会 2022 年春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] ロシア・トムスク地域における 2000 年以降の土地被覆変化2022

    • Author(s)
      中山大地・舘野水希・Khromykh, V.・Khromykh, O.
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会 2022 年春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 洪水氾濫シミュレーションを用いたトムスク市街地におけるアイスジャム洪水の推定2022

    • Author(s)
      根元裕樹・松山 洋・Zemtsov, V.・Vershinin, D.・Tarasov, A.
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会 2022 年春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 西シベリアにおける極端現象指標の長期トレンド2022

    • Author(s)
      渡邊貴典・松山 洋・Kuzhevskaia, I.・Nechepurenko, O.・Chursin, V.・Zemtsov, V.
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会 2022 年春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 趣旨説明. 日本地理学会2022年春季学術大会シンポジウム「日露協働によるシベリアの環境変化研究」2022

    • Author(s)
      松山 洋
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会 2022 年春季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The application of Soil Water Index to landslide prediction in snowy regions-Sensitivity analysis in Japan and preliminary results at Tomsk, Russia-2019

    • Author(s)
      Matsuyama, H.
    • Organizer
      Life and Earth Sciences and Sustainable Global and Regional Development (AKTRU2019) International Symposium
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] ロシア・トムスク市における洪水避難シミュレーション2019

    • Author(s)
      中山大地・Khromykh, V.・Khromykh, O.・松山 洋
    • Organizer
      日本地理学会秋季学術大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The system for flood monitoring on the Ob River (within the Tomsk Region)2019

    • Author(s)
      Khromykh, V. and Khromykh, O.
    • Organizer
      General Meeting of the Association of Japanese Geographers Autumn Meeting
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] JRA-55 と GPS による可降水量の比較-両者の地形の差異を考慮して-2019

    • Author(s)
      フローレス慈英・松山 洋・宮岡健吾
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] エージェントベースモデルを用いた避難行動シミュレーション-阿蘇市内牧地域を対象に-2019

    • Author(s)
      安元愛里菜・堀井洋輔・石川和樹・中山大地
    • Organizer
      東京大学空間情報科学研究センター第 22 回年次シンポジウム(CSIS DAYS 2019)「全国共同利用研究発表大会」
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The application of Soil Water Index to landslide prediction-Toward its usage to snowmelt-driven landslides-2018

    • Author(s)
      Matsuyama, H.
    • Organizer
      TSU-TMU Joint Symposium 2018 “The Natural and Artificial Environments. The Cultural Trends”
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Feasibility study of landslide and flood prediction using GIS and machine learning2018

    • Author(s)
      Nakayama, D.
    • Organizer
      TSU-TMU Joint Symposium 2018 “The Natural and Artificial Environments. The Cultural Trends”
    • Related Report
      2018 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] 東京都立大学 地理情報学研究室

    • URL

      https://www.comp.tmu.ac.jp/lagis/

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2018-10-12   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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