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Evaluation of present and future heavy snowfall potentials over infrequent-snowfall regions in Japan

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19H01377
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 04010:Geography-related
Research InstitutionJapan, Meteorological Research Institute

Principal Investigator

Kawase Hiroaki  気象庁気象研究所, 応用気象研究部, 主任研究官 (20537287)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 野沢 徹  岡山大学, 自然科学学域, 教授 (10311325)
大庭 雅道  一般財団法人電力中央研究所, サステナブルシステム研究本部, 主任研究員 (40466660)
西井 和晃  三重大学, 生物資源学研究科, 准教授 (50623401)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,870,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥6,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Keywords積雪が稀な地域の大雪 / 南岸低気圧 / データレスキュー / 地域気候モデル / 地球温暖化 / 降雪 / 自己組織化マップ / 太平洋側の大雪 / 区内気象観測 / 大雪発生ポテンシャル / 降雪が稀な地域での大雪 / 雪の将来予測 / 積雪のデータレスキュー / 降雪・積雪の将来変化 / 大雪 / 区内観測 / 太平洋側の降雪 / 稿積雪の将来変化
Outline of Research at the Start

本州の太平洋側などの降雪頻度の低い地域を対象に、退蔵された過去の積雪データを救出し、過去の積雪分布図及び大雪の起こりやすさを指標化した大雪発生ポテンシャルマップを作成する。同時に、数値シミュレーションや機械学習を用いて大雪を引き起こす気象場を明らかにする。また、地球温暖化が進行する将来においても大雪発生ポテンシャルマップを作成し、各地域の雪害対策や地球温暖化適応策に活用可能な情報を創出する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We focus on the infrequently-occurred heavy snowfall over the Japanese coastal areas facing Pacific Ocean. The snow depth data in many in situ station was not digital data before 1978. We conducted the digitalization of snow depth data from 1958 to 1978. Then we investigated infrequently-occurred heavy snowfall using observed snow depth and numerical simulations with 5-km non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM). The synoptic-scale atmospheric circulations were investigated using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis and Self-Organizing Map (SOM). Also, we evaluated the future changes in infrequently-occurred heavy snowfall in Japan using high-resolution dynamical downscaling data based on the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF).

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

東日本や西日本の太平洋側は、降雪頻度が低いことから雪への備えが脆弱であり、ひとたび大雪となると大きな雪災が発生する可能性がある。ただ、これらの地域には気象庁の積雪観測点が少なく、過去の大雪の実態把握が困難であった。一方、1978年以前は、気象庁から委託する形で、太平洋側でも多くの積雪観測が行われていたが、まだデジタル化が行われていなかった。本課題でこれらのデータのデジタル化を行うことで、過去の太平洋側の大雪の検出や積雪の面的把握が可能となる。また、近年主流となっている気象モデルを用いた数値シミュレーションの精度検証ができ、同モデルを用いた積雪の将来予測の精度担保にも貢献できる。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (41 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019

All Journal Article (8 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 8 results,  Open Access: 7 results) Presentation (30 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Invited: 3 results) Book (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Historical regional climate changes in Japan in winter as assessed by a 5-km regional climate model with a land surface process2023

    • Author(s)
      Kawase Hiroaki、Fukui Shin、Nosaka Masaya、Watanabe Shun-ichi I.、Otomo Keishi、Murata Akihiko、Murazaki Kazuyo、Nakaegawa Tosiyuki
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-19

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-023-00536-4

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impacts of Historical Atmospheric and Oceanic Warming on Heavy Snowfall in December 2020 in Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Kawase H.、Imada Y.、Watanabe S.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

      Volume: 127 Issue: 21 Pages: 1-19

    • DOI

      10.1029/2022jd036996

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Eurasian Cooling in Winter 2020-212022

    • Author(s)
      Nishii Kazuaki、Taguchi Bunmei、Mori Masato、Kosaka Yu、Nakamura Hisashi
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 18 Issue: 0 Pages: 199-204

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2022-032

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions of ENSO to winter precipitation in Japan: frequency and precipitation of synoptic weather patterns2021

    • Author(s)
      Ohba Masamichi、Sugimoto Soichiro
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: なし Issue: 5-6 Pages: 1489-1504

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-021-06052-9

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Regional Characteristics of Future Changes in Snowfall in Japan under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 Scenarios2021

    • Author(s)
      Kawase, H., A. Murata, K. Yamada, T. Nakaegawa, R. Ito, R. Mizuta, M. Nosaka, S. Watanabe, H. Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 17 Issue: 0 Pages: 1-7

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2021-001

    • NAID

      130007976037

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Rain-on-Snow events in Japan as projected by a large ensemble of regional climate simulations2020

    • Author(s)
      Ohba Masamichi、Kawase Hiroaki
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 55 Issue: 9-10 Pages: 2785-2800

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-020-05419-8

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impacts of climate change on heavy wet snowfall in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Ohba Masamichi、Sugimoto Soichiro
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 54 Issue: 5-6 Pages: 3151-3164

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-020-05163-z

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report 2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Takeshi Yamazaki, Shiori Sugimoto, Takahiro Sasai, Rui Ito, Takashi Hamada, Masatoshi Kuribayashi, Mikiko Fujita, Akihiko Murata, Masaya Nosaka, Hidetaka Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

      Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-17

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40645-020-0322-x

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Eurasian Cooling in Winter 2020-212023

    • Author(s)
      Kazuaki Nishii, Bunmei Taguchi, Masato Mori, Yu Kosaka, Hisashi Nakamura
    • Organizer
      ISAR-7
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Contributions of CPM to evaluate the impact of historical warming on recent extreme events in Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Shun-ichi Watanabe, Yukiko Imada
    • Organizer
      VI Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling Workshop
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Impacts of high-resolution sea surface temperature on atmospheric reanalysis; an example over the Sea of Japan in winter2022

    • Author(s)
      Kazuaki Nishii, Hisashi Nakamura, Atsuyoshi Manda
    • Organizer
      JpGU meeting 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic and thermodynamic contributions of ENSO to winter precipitation in Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Masamichi Ohba, Soichiro Sugimoto
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本海寒帯気団収束帯と北海道西岸小低気圧に影響を受けた新潟市周辺の大雪の再現実験とSST感度実験2022

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明,本田明治
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 区内気象観測と数値シミュレーションによる日本の積雪が稀な地域の大雪の調査2022

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明,野沢徹,西井和晃,土屋智紀,福井真,野坂真也,大友啓嗣
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2022・札幌)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 静力学地域気候モデルを用いたJRA-55からの5km長期ダウンスケーリング実験2022

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明,福井真,渡邉俊一,大友啓嗣,野坂真也,村田昭彦,仲江川敏之,村崎万代
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の冬季降水・降雪に対する ENSO の力学的・熱力学的効果2022

    • Author(s)
      大庭雅道,杉本聡一郎
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2022・札幌)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] d4PDF 気候予測データにおける Rain-on-Snow の将来変化2022

    • Author(s)
      大庭雅道,川瀬宏明
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会(2022・札幌)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本域の冬季降水・降雪量に対するENSOの影響2022

    • Author(s)
      大庭雅道,杉本聡一郎
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 区内観測を用いた山陽地域における大雪事例の抽出と気象場の解析,2022

    • Author(s)
      稲澤睦美,川瀬宏明,野沢徹
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 区内観測が捉えた過去の関東平野の大雪と気象モデルを用いた再現実験2021

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明、土屋智紀、村田昭彦、野坂真也、福井真、上野健一、野沢徹、西井和晃、大庭雅道
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2020/21冬季の大雪に工業化以降の温暖化が及ぼす影響2021

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明、今田由紀子、渡邉俊一、本田明治、山崎哲
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 2020/21冬季に発生した大雪に対する大気と海洋の温暖化の影響2021

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明、今田由紀子、渡邉俊一、本田明治、山崎哲
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会2021・千葉
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 地域気候モデルを用いた中部山岳の降積雪の再現と将来予測2021

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明
    • Organizer
      JpGU2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Evaluation of historical warming on recent heavy rainfall and snowfall events in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Yukiko Imada, Shun-ichi Watanabe, Akihiko Murata
    • Organizer
      The Fifth Convection-Permitting Modeling Workshop 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Impacts of atmospheric and ocean warming on heavy snowfall in 2020/2021 winter2021

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Yukiko Imada, Shun-ichi Watanabe
    • Organizer
      International workshop for mid-latitude air-sea interaction
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 山陽地域における大雪事例の抽出と気象場の特徴2021

    • Author(s)
      稲澤睦美、川瀬宏明、野沢徹
    • Organizer
      2021年度日本気象学会関西支部第3回例会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 高像度海面水温データの大気再析への影響~冬季日本海上の例~2021

    • Author(s)
      西井和晃、中村尚、万田敦昌
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Increase in Rain-on-Snow events in Japan as projected by large ensemble of regional climate simulations2020

    • Author(s)
      Masamichi Ohba and Hiroaki Kawase
    • Organizer
      JpGU - AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Impacts of climate change on heavy wet snowfall in Japan: differences among wether patterns2020

    • Author(s)
      Masamichi Ohba and Soichiro Sugimoto
    • Organizer
      JpGU - AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 岡山市中心部で大雪となる場合の気象場の特徴について2020

    • Author(s)
      稲澤睦美・川瀬宏明・野沢徹
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2020年度春季大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 区内観測を用いた中国・四国地方における大雪事例の解析2020

    • Author(s)
      稲澤睦美・川瀬宏明・三和祐太・高島昌子・兼富彩乃・栗栖朗・村田茉莉花・渡邊果歩・野沢徹
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本気象学会関西支部第2回例会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 鳥羽・伊勢での大雪事例の解析2020

    • Author(s)
      西井和晃
    • Organizer
      2020年度日本気象学会中部支部研究会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Future projection of snowfall and snow depth in Japan using non-hydrostatic regional climate model2019

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase
    • Organizer
      Latsis Symposium
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Future changes in snowfall and snow cover at high Japanese mountain ranges2019

    • Author(s)
      Hiroaki Kawase, Takeshi Yamazaki, Takahiro Sasai, Shiori Sugimoto, Mikiko Fujita, Akihiko Murata, Hidetaka Sasaki, Nasaya Nosaka
    • Organizer
      ICRC-CORDEX2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 1km力学的ダウンスケーリングから見えた地球温暖化に伴い極端化する中部山岳の降雪・積雪2019

    • Author(s)
      川瀬宏明,山崎剛,佐々井崇博,杉本志織,藤田実季子,浜田崇,栗林正俊,伊東瑠衣, 村田昭彦,野坂真也,佐々木秀孝
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 川瀬宏明,山崎剛,杉本志織,佐々井崇博,藤田実季子,村田昭彦,野坂真也,佐々木秀孝2019

    • Author(s)
      地球温暖化による北アルプスの降積雪の極端化
    • Organizer
      雪氷研究大会
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Spatially heterogeneous impact of global warming on heavy wet snowfall2019

    • Author(s)
      Masamichi Ohba, Soichiro Sugimoto
    • Organizer
      EMS 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Spatially heterogeneous impacts of global warming on heavy wet snowfall in Japan2019

    • Author(s)
      Masamichi Ohba, Soichiro Sugimoto
    • Organizer
      ICAM 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 極端豪雨はなぜ毎年のように発生するのか2021

    • Author(s)
      川瀬 宏明
    • Total Pages
      224
    • Publisher
      化学同人
    • ISBN
      4759816895
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Precipitation: Earth surface responses and processes2021

    • Author(s)
      Masamichi Oba (文著)
    • Publisher
      Elsevier
    • ISBN
      0128226994
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 地球温暖化で雪は減るのか増えるのか問題2019

    • Author(s)
      川瀬 宏明
    • Total Pages
      254
    • Publisher
      ベレ出版
    • ISBN
      9784860646035
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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