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Developments of statistical inference, prediction, and modeling methods for network meta-analysis

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19H04074
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 60030:Statistical science-related
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

Noma Hisashi  統計数理研究所, データ科学研究系, 准教授 (70633486)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 五所 正彦  筑波大学, 医学医療系, 教授 (70701019)
古川 壽亮  京都大学, 医学研究科, 教授 (90275123)
長島 健悟  統計数理研究所, 医療健康データ科学研究センター, 特任准教授 (20510712)
Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2021)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,720,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,810,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,110,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥6,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Keywordsネットワークメタアナリシス / Evidence-based medicine / 高次漸近理論 / モンテカルロ推測 / 影響力解析 / 多変量メタアナリシス / 公表バイアス / ロバスト推測 / 外れ値 / Evidence-Based Medicine / 統計的推測 / 統計的予測 / 統計モデリング / セミパラメトリック統計理論
Outline of Research at the Start

世界規模で進む社会の高齢化による医療費の高騰から、医薬品・医療技術の有効性・有用性の比較評価は極めて重要な課題であり、ネットワークメタアナリシスはそのための重要な研究方法となっている。ネットワークメタアナリシスにおいて、統計科学の方法論は科学的な妥当性および精確性の根幹を支える中心的な役割を果たしているが、その現状のスタンダードとなっている方法には、深刻な問題・限界がある。本研究では、(A) 治療効果の推測・予測,(B) バイアスのモデル化・感度解析,(C) 大規模臨床試験データベースを用いた精密医療実現のためのエビデンス統合解析という3つの課題において、新規方法論の研究開発を行う。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Due to the increase of cost of medical care causing by the aging society, relevance of the comparative effectiveness research is markedly growing. Network meta-analysis is one of effective research methods for the comparative effectiveness research. In this study, we developed new methods for statistical analyses of network meta-analysis, especially for the inference, prediction, and statistical modelling. We developed several effective inference and prediction methods that are more accurate compared with the current standard methods in practices. Also, we provided new effective outlier detection and influence diagnostic methods. In addition, we developed the most efficient statistical test for detecting publication bias in multivariate meta-analysis.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

ネットワークメタアナリシスは、現在、医療政策や診療ガイドラインの策定、新規医薬品の承認審査にも用いられるようになっている。既存の分析手法を単純に用いるだけでは、誤ったエビデンスに基づく意思決定を行ってしまうリスクがあるが、本研究によって得られた一連の研究成果は、それらの統計的推測・予測の重要な問題を解決するものである。また、さまざまなバイアスを防止・調整するために有用な分析手法を与えることにも成功している。豊富な事例解析に基づく実証分析により、現実的な条件のもとでの有用性も明確に示すことができており、将来の医療・社会の問題を解決することに資するものであることが期待できる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2021 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (23 results)

All 2022 2021 2020 2019

All Journal Article (12 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 12 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Presentation (11 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Invited: 2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Meta-analysis Using Flexible Random-effects Distribution Models2022

    • Author(s)
      Noma, H., Nagashima, K., Kato, S., Teramukai, S. and Furukawa, T. A.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 32 Issue: 10 Pages: 441-448

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20200376

    • NAID

      130007986099

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2022-10-05
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Confidence intervals of prediction accuracy measures for?multivariable prediction models based on the bootstrap‐based optimism correction methods2021

    • Author(s)
      Noma Hisashi、Shinozaki Tomohiro、Iba Katsuhiro、Teramukai Satoshi、Furukawa Toshi A.
    • Journal Title

      Statistics in Medicine

      Volume: 40 Issue: 26 Pages: 5691-5701

    • DOI

      10.1002/sim.9148

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ベイズ流メタアナリシスにおける外れ値試験の検出と影響力解析2021

    • Author(s)
      濱口雄太,松嶋優貴,野間久史
    • Journal Title

      計量生物学

      Volume: 42 Pages: 33-54

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Confidence interval for the AUC of SROC curve and some related methods using bootstrap for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies2021

    • Author(s)
      Noma, H., Matsushima, Y. and Ishii, R.
    • Journal Title

      Communications in Statistics: Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications

      Volume: 7 Issue: 3 Pages: 344-358

    • DOI

      10.1080/23737484.2021.1894408

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 多施設共同臨床試験における極端なプロファイルを持つ施設の検出と影響力診断の方法2021

    • Author(s)
      中村理恵,野間久史
    • Journal Title

      計量生物学

    • NAID

      130008036919

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Re-evaluation of the comparative effectiveness of bootstrap-based optimism correction methods in the development of multivariable clinical prediction models2021

    • Author(s)
      Iba, K., Shinozaki, T., Maruo, K., and Noma, H.
    • Journal Title

      BMC Medical Research Methodology

      Volume: 21 Issue: 1 Pages: 9-9

    • DOI

      10.1186/s12874-020-01201-w

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Discussion of “Testing small study effects in multivariate meta-analysis” by Chuan Hong, Georgia Salanti, Sally Morton, Richard Riley, Haitao Chu, Stephen E. Kimmel, and Yong Chen2020

    • Author(s)
      Noma, H.
    • Journal Title

      Biometrics

      Volume: 76 Issue: 4 Pages: 1255-1259

    • DOI

      10.1111/biom.13344

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report 2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Outlier detection and influence diagnostics in network meta‐analysis2020

    • Author(s)
      Noma Hisashi、Gosho Masahiko、Ishii Ryota、Oba Koji、Furukawa Toshi A.
    • Journal Title

      Research Synthesis Methods

      Volume: 11 Issue: 6 Pages: 891-902

    • DOI

      10.1002/jrsm.1455

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Frequentist performances of Bayesian prediction intervals for random‐effects meta‐analysis2020

    • Author(s)
      Hamaguchi, Y., Noma, H., Nagashima, K., Yamada, T., and Furukawa, T. A.
    • Journal Title

      Biometrical Journal

      Volume: 63 Issue: 2 Pages: 394-405

    • DOI

      10.1002/bimj.201900351

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Influence diagnostics and outlier detection for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy2020

    • Author(s)
      Matsushima, Y., Noma, H., Yamada, T., and Furukawa, T. A.
    • Journal Title

      Research Synthesis Methods

      Volume: 11 Issue: 2 Pages: 237-247

    • DOI

      10.1002/jrsm.1387

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A unified method for improved inference in random-effects meta-analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Sugasawa, S. and Noma, H.
    • Journal Title

      Biostatistics

      Volume: - Issue: 1 Pages: 114-130

    • DOI

      10.1093/biostatistics/kxz020

    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report 2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Permutation inference methods for multivariate meta‐analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Noma Hisashi、Nagashima Kengo、Furukawa Toshi A.
    • Journal Title

      Biometrics

      Volume: 76 Issue: 1 Pages: 337-347

    • DOI

      10.1111/biom.13134

    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] ネットワークメタアナリシス:Comparative Effectiveness Researchのためのエビデンス統合の方法2021

    • Author(s)
      野間久史
    • Organizer
      日本アプライドセラピューティクス学会第11回学術大会・日本社会薬学会第39回年会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Actual predictive performances of Bayesian prediction intervals for meta-analysis2020

    • Author(s)
      Hamaguchi, Y., Noma, H., and Nagashima, K.
    • Organizer
      41th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Re-evaluation of bootstrap-based optimism correction methods in multivariable clinical prediction models2020

    • Author(s)
      Iba, K., Shinozaki, T., Maruo, K., and Noma, H.
    • Organizer
      41th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Methods for detecting outlying regions and influence diagnosis in multi-regional clinical trials2020

    • Author(s)
      Aoki, M., and Noma, H.
    • Organizer
      2020 ASA Biopharmaceutical Section Statistics Workshop
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 診断法のメタアナリシスにおける “outlying studies” の検出と影響力評価2020

    • Author(s)
      松嶋優貴,野間久史
    • Organizer
      2020年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 多変量臨床予測モデルにおける判別・較正指標の信頼区間2020

    • Author(s)
      野間久史
    • Organizer
      大分統計談話会第62回大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Frequentist performances of Bayesian prediction intervals for random effects meta-analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Hamaguchi, Y., Noma, H., Nagashima, K.
    • Organizer
      40th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Outlying studies can change ranking of treatments and comparative efficacy estimates in network meta-analysis: From a comparative study of antihypertensive drugs2019

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, R. and Noma, H.
    • Organizer
      ISPOR Europe 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Improved Monte Carlo inference methods for network meta-analysis2019

    • Author(s)
      Noma, H. and Nagashima, K.
    • Organizer
      CMStatistics 2019
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Detecting outlying studies in meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy2019

    • Author(s)
      Matsushima, Y. and Noma, H.
    • Organizer
      40th Annual Conference of the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Clinical Trial Data Sharingシステムを活用した大規模臨床試験エビデンス統合解析:Precision Medicineをめざした新たな試み2019

    • Author(s)
      野間久史
    • Organizer
      2019年度医療健康データ科学研究センターシンポジウム
    • Related Report
      2019 Annual Research Report
    • Invited

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Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2023-01-30  

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