• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Study on the temporal and spatial epidemic dynamics of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Japan, China and Northern Europe

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K10666
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
Research InstitutionSapporo Medical University

Principal Investigator

Sumi Ayako  札幌医科大学, 医療人育成センター, 教授 (10363699)

Project Period (FY) 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords結核 / 喀痰塗抹陽性 / 喀痰塗抹陰性 / 時系列解析 / サーベイランス / 多剤耐性結核 / 非線形性 / 多剤耐性菌 / 気象 / 季節性 / COVID-19 / 感染症サーベイランス
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究の目的・重要性は、多剤耐性結核の対策が今日的課題となっている日本と中国において、多剤耐性結核の発生を規定する要因を系統的に調査し、多剤耐性結核対策のための基礎資料を作ることにある。アジアは結核の蔓延国であることから、日本・中国の結果を低蔓延国のフィンランドの結果と比較する研究成果は極めて貴重である。
本研究の独自性は、用いる時系列解析法にある。結核の実測データの時間的変動構造は一様ではなく、それが時々刻々と変化するカオス特性、すなわち非線形性を有するため、時系列データの線形性を前提とした解析では不十分である。本研究ではこの点を克服した、研究代表者が既に構築済みである解析方法を用いる。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The seasonality of age- and prefecture-specific sputum smear positive (SSP) pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) epidemics in Japan was investigated. A time series analysis based on MEM spectral analysis was used to analyze the monthly age- and prefecture-specific numbers of newly registered cases of SSP pulmonary TB in Japan from 1998 to 2019. The age-specific data are reported in 5-year age groups and the prefecture-specific data are collected for all 47 prefectures in Japan. The values of contribution ratio of the 1-year cycle, Q1, was defined as the contribution of the amplitude of a 1-year cycle to the whole amplitude of the time series data. The Q1 values in two age groups (20-39 years and over 80 years) were high. The Q1 values for all 47 prefectures showed significant correlation with population density. To control SSP pulmonary TB epidemics, investigating periodic structures in the temporal patterns of SSP pulmonary TB in each age group and each prefecture is important.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の学術的および社会的意義は、第一は、多剤耐性結核の対策が今日的課題となっている日本と中国において、多剤耐性結核の発生を規定する要因を系統的に調査し、その対策のための基礎資料を作る点にあった。本邦では感染症の疫学において時系列解析を用いている研究者が少ないため、このような研究成果は極めて貴重であった。第二は、アジアは結核の蔓延国であることから、日本・中国の結果を低蔓延国のフィンランドの結果と比較する点にあった。そして第三は解析方法にあり、時々刻々と変化するカオス特性、すなわち非線形性を有する可能性がある結核サーベイランスデータに、報告者が基本的枠組みを構築した解析方法を適用する点にあった。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 8 results,  Open Access: 4 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] タンペレ大学(フィンランド)

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Time series analysis of monthly numbers of newly registered cases of sputum smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Japan from 1998 to 20192023

    • Author(s)
      Ayako Sumi
    • Journal Title

      Report on disaster-related infectious disease seminars

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Ultra-low and very-low frequency components of power spectral density relative to heart rate variability during marathon running2023

    • Author(s)
      Toru Sakuta, Ayako Sumi, Keiji Mise, Nobumichi Kobayashi
    • Journal Title

      札幌医科大学医療人育成センター紀要

      Volume: 14 Pages: 1-6

    • URL

      https://sapmed.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/18339

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Time-Series Analysis of Coxsackievirus B Serotype Surveillance Data in Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Keiji Mise, Ayako Sumi
    • Journal Title

      札幌医科大学医療人育成センター紀要 = Journal of center for medical education Sapporo Medical University = Journal of center for medical education Sapporo Medical University

      Volume: 13 Pages: 19-23

    • DOI

      10.15114/jcme.13.19

    • URL

      https://sapmed.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/17577

    • Year and Date
      2022-03-31
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Keiji Mise, Ayako Sumi, Shintaro Takatsuka, Shin-ichi Toyoda
    • Journal Title

      Epidemiologia

      Volume: 2 Issue: 2 Pages: 162-178

    • DOI

      10.3390/epidemiologia2020013

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Clonal lineages and antimicrobial resistance of nonencapsulated Streptococcus pneumoniae in the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Mitsuyo Kawaguchiya, Noriko Urushibara, Meiji Soe Aung, Kenji Kudo, Masahiko Ito, Ayako Sumi, Nobumichi Kobayashi
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Infectious Diseases

      Volume: 105 Pages: 695-701

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ijid.2021.02.109

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] デンマークの自然エネルギーの到達点と新型コロナウイルス感染症の発生変動に関する一考察2021

    • Author(s)
      鷲見紋子、大友詔雄
    • Journal Title

      札幌医科大学 医療人育成センター紀要

      Volume: 12 Pages: 1-7

    • NAID

      40022513347

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Latitudes mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors: A nationwide modelling analysis in 45 Japanese prefectures from 2000 to 20182020

    • Author(s)
      Chong Ka Chun、Liang Jingbo、Jia Katherine Min、Kobayashi Nobumichi、Wang Maggie Haitian、Wei Lai、Lau Steven Yuk Fai、Sumi Ayako
    • Journal Title

      Science of The Total Environment

      Volume: 703 Pages: 134727-134727

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134727

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] New Development of Disaster-Related and Tropical Infectious Diseases Control2020

    • Author(s)
      Bai Gaowa、Niki Toshiro、Kikuchi Haruhisa、Sumi Ayako、Kobayashi Nobuyuki、Haruyama Takahiro、Zhang Jing、Chagan-Yasutan Haorile、Hattori Toshio
    • Journal Title

      Reports

      Volume: 3 Issue: 1 Pages: 5-18

    • DOI

      10.3390/reports3010005

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 時間感染症学2020

    • Author(s)
      鷲見 紋子、大友 詔雄
    • Total Pages
      354
    • Publisher
      北海道大学出版会
    • ISBN
      9784832982338
    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2019-04-18   Modified: 2024-01-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi