A systematic assessment on the seasonality of mortality: a multicountry time series study

• Project/Area Number: 19K19461
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: Nagasaki University
• Principal Investigator: MADANIYAZI Lina 長崎大学, 熱帯医学・グローバルヘルス研究科, 助教 (30835195)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000); Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
• Keywords: Seasonality / Mortality / Temperature / Climate change / Multi countries / Time series study / seasonality / mortality / temperature / climate change / multi countries / time series study / climate chaneg

Outline of Research at the Start

In order to assess seasonality of mortality systematically and investigate the effect of temperature on it globally, daily data over a long period from 29 countries will be collected and analyzed. Then, a conceptual model will be suggested for the management of seasonality risks for mortality.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The project's objective was to systematically assess seasonal variations in mortality and investigate the impact of temperature across more than 700 cities worldwide. This endeavor resulted in the publication of four research papers in reputable international peer-reviewed journals. Additionally, the project findings were presented at various domestic and international seminars and conferences, fostering collaborations with researchers in the field of planetary health on a global scale.

In brief, the project's outcomes revealed two key insights: firstly, locations with temperate and continental climates exhibit the most pronounced seasonal variation in mortality. Secondly, temperature emerges as a significant factor driving this seasonal variation in mortality. Moreover, the findings imply that ongoing climate warming has the potential to alter seasonal patterns in mortality in the future.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

この研究は、季節ごとの死亡率と気温の役割を包括的かつ体系的に調査する、科学的にも初めての国際的な研究です。この研究は、温暖化する気候下での異なる季節における保健資源の配分に関する重要な公衆衛生上の示唆を提供している。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Assessing seasonality and the role of its potential drivers in environmental epidemiology: a tutorial (2022)
  • Author(s): Madaniyazi Lina、Tobias Aurelio、Kim Yoonhee、Chung Yeonseung、Armstrong Ben、Hashizume Masahiro
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Epidemiology Volume: -
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study (2021)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Ben Armstrong, Yeonseung Chung, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Yasushi Honda, Antonio Gasparrini, Masahiro Hashizume, Multi-country Multi-city (MCC) Collaborative Research Network
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Epidemiology Volume: 51 Issue: 1 Pages: 122-133
  • DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab143
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan (2021)
  • Author(s): Madaniyazi Lina、Ng Chris Fook Sheng、Seposo Xerxes、Toizumi Michiko、Yoshida Lay-Myint、Honda Yasushi、Armstrong Ben、Hashizume Masahiro
  • Journal Title: BMJ Open Volume: 11 Issue: 7 Pages: e044876-e044876
  • DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044876
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 (2021)
  • Author(s): Madaniyazi L, Chung Y, Kim Y, Tobias A, Ng CFS, Seposo X, Guo Y, Honda Y, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Hashizume M.
  • Journal Title: Environ Health Prev Med Volume: 26(1) Issue: 1 Pages: 69-69
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015 (2021)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Yeonseung Chung, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Masahiro Hashizume
  • Journal Title: Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine Volume: -
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] The role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan (2021)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Michiko Toizumi, Lay_Myint Yoshida, Yasushi Honda, Ben Armstrong, Masahiro Hashizume
  • Journal Title: BMJ Open Volume: -
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate (2023)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Ben Armstrong, Yeonseung Chung, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Yasushi Honda, Antonio Gasparrini, Masahiro Hashizume, On behalf of the MCC collaborative research network
  • Organizer: 第93回日本衛生学会学術総会
• [Presentation] Projecting seasonality of mortality under a changing climate (2022)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Ben Armstrong, Aurelio Tobias, Masahiro Hashizume, On behalf of the MCC collaborative research network
  • Organizer: Climate change and human health in Asia: current impacts, future risks, and health cobenefits
• [Presentation] Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study (2021)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi
  • Organizer: Virtual Kick off meeting: e-Asia Project
• [Presentation] Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study (2021)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Yeonseung Chung, Yoonhee Kim, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Yasuhi Honda, Masahiro Hashizume
  • Organizer: the 33rd Annual Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology
• [Presentation] Multi-city Multi-country Collaborative Study-Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature (2021)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi
  • Organizer: オンラインで結ぶ 日英公開シンポジウム
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Seasonality of mortality in Japan under a changing climate (2020)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Yeonseung Chung, Yoonhee Kim, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Yasuhi Honda, Masahiro Hashizume
  • Organizer: Climate change, Air pollution, Interaction, Health, Projection, Adaptation
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Seasonality of mortality with temperature adjustment in Japan over 44 year (2019)
  • Author(s): Lina Madaniyazi, Yeonseung Chung, Yoonhee Kim, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Yasuhi Honda, Masahiro Hashizume
  • Organizer: 31st Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology
  • Int'l Joint Research