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Epidemiological study for seasonality change of respiratory syncytial virus epidemics: risk factor analysis and mathematical modeling

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19K24219
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 0908:Society medicine, nursing, and related fields
Research InstitutionOsaka Institute of Public Health

Principal Investigator

MIYAMA Takeshi  地方独立行政法人 大阪健康安全基盤研究所, 公衆衛生部, 研究員 (30846241)

Project Period (FY) 2019-08-30 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,600,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥600,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
KeywordsRSウイルス感染症 / 感染症疫学 / 新型コロナウイルス感染症 / 早期探知 / 実効再生産数 / 流行期判定 / 流行予測 / 2次感染者数分布 / RSV感染症 / 子孫分布 / 季節性変動 / 降水量 / 海外渡航者数 / 疫学 / 数理モデル / リスク因子
Outline of Research at the Start

Respiratory syncytial virus(RSV)感染症は新生児、乳幼児、免疫不全や先天性心疾患等を有するハイリスク群で重症化しやすい。ハイリスク児を対象にRSV感染の重症化予防のため、ヒト化抗RSV-F蛋白単クローン抗体が予防的に投与されているが、流行前の投与が望ましく、感染流行期の把握は重要となる。大阪府では2015年まで第50週頃が流行の最盛期となっていたが、2016年以降は第40週頃と大きく変化しており、計画的な予防が困難な状態である。本研究は大阪府及び全国の発生動向調査データを用いて、①流行期に影響する因子を探索すること、②大阪府内でのRSV感染症流行を予測する数理モデルの作成とその検証を行う。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Detecting respiratory infectious disease epidemics as early as possible is crucial for implementing planned administration of preventive medication and ensuring accurate diagnosis. In this research, our objective was to gain a comprehensive understanding of infection dynamics by monitoring the effective reproduction number and establishing a reference value for the onset of the epidemic period. Additionally, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 countermeasures on the dynamics of RSV infections using a mathematical model, and projected the potential size of the epidemic in 2022 and 2023. The study indicated that the timing and magnitude of epidemic can be influenced by the number of individuals susceptible to infection and the risk of infection.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で得られたRSV感染症流行の流行開始基準値を用いて流行期を周知することで、感染リスクのある集団の感染予防の意識を高め、重症化リスクの高い集団は予防薬(流行期において月1回の投与が必要)を計画的に投与することができる。また、流行規模の予測は、医療体制にとって有用な情報となり得る。効率的な感染症の予防及び医療体制の整備は、重症例数の抑制に貢献すると考えられる。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (10 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020

All Journal Article (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 5 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Exploring the threshold for the start of respiratory syncytial virus infection epidemic season using sentinel surveillance data in Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Miyama Takeshi、Kakimoto Kensaku、Iritani Nobuhiro、Nishio Takayuki、Ukai Tomohiko、Satsuki Yuka、Yamanaka Yasutaka、Nishida Yoko、Shintani Ayumi、Motomura Kazushi
    • Journal Title

      Frontiers in Public Health

      Volume: 11 Pages: 1062726-1062726

    • DOI

      10.3389/fpubh.2023.1062726

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Decrease in overdispersed secondary transmission of COVID-19 over time in Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Miyama Takeshi、Jung Sung-mok、Nishiura Hiroshi
    • Journal Title

      Epidemiology and Infection

      Volume: 150 Pages: 1-29

    • DOI

      10.1017/s0950268822001789

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Phenomenological and mechanistic models for predicting early transmission data of COVID-192021

    • Author(s)
      Miyama Takeshi、Hiroshi Nishiura
    • Journal Title

      Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

      Volume: 19 Issue: 2 Pages: 2043-2055

    • DOI

      10.3934/mbe.2022096

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Seasonal shift in epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Miyama Takeshi、Iritani Nobuhiro、Nishio Takayuki、Ukai Tomohiko、Satsuki Yuka、Miyata Hiromi、Shintani Ayumi、Hiroi Satoshi、Motomura Kazushi、Kobayashi Kazuo
    • Journal Title

      Epidemiology and Infection

      Volume: 149

    • DOI

      10.1017/s0950268821000340

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Time Series Analysis of Climate and Air Pollution Factors Associated with Atmospheric Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Miyama Takeshi、Matsui Hiroshi、Azuma Kenichi、Minejima Chika、Itano Yasuyuki、Takenaka Norimichi、Ohyama Masayuki
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

      Volume: 17 Issue: 24 Pages: 9507-9507

    • DOI

      10.3390/ijerph17249507

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] 定点あたり報告数を用いた大阪府における RS ウイルス感染症の流行開始基準値の検討2023

    • Author(s)
      三山豪士、柿本健作、入谷展弘、西尾孝之、鵜飼友彦、皐月由香、山中靖貴、西田陽子、新谷歩、本村和嗣
    • Organizer
      第36回公衆衛生情報協議会研究会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] RSウイルス感染症の流行開始基準値の検討2023

    • Author(s)
      三山豪士、本村和嗣
    • Organizer
      第97回日本感染症学会学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] COVID-19の2次感染者数分布の変動2021

    • Author(s)
      三山豪士, Sung-mok Jung, 西浦博
    • Organizer
      第31回日本数理生物学会大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Age-dependent relative susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a statistical inference using household data2021

    • Author(s)
      Miyama T, Jung SM, Nishiura H
    • Organizer
      8th International Conference on Infectious Disease Dynamics
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Phenomenological and mechanistic model comparison for the forecast of an epidemic using COVID-19 reported data in China2020

    • Author(s)
      Miyama Takeshi、Hayashi Katsuma、Jung Sung-mok、Anzai Asami、Kinoshita Ryo、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Linton M. Natalie、Suzuki Ayako、Kayano Taishi、Akhmetzhanov R. Andrei、Nishiura Hiroshi
    • Organizer
      COVID-19 Dynamics & Evolution
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2019-09-03   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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