| Project/Area Number |
20590609
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hygiene
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| Research Institution | Sapporo Medical University |
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Principal Investigator |
SUMI Ayako Sapporo Medical University, 医学部, 講師 (10363699)
|
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KAMO Kenichi 札幌医科大学, 医療人育成センター, 准教授 (10404740)
KOBAYASHI Nobumichi 札幌医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (80186759)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2010)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2009: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2008: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
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| Keywords | 感染症 / ウイルス / 衛生 / 統計数学 / 生物物理 / インフルエンザ |
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| Research Abstract |
We obtained the following two main results : (i) Time series analysis for incidence data of influenza revealed that the amount of amplitude of the interepidemic periods increased during the occurrence of influenza pandemics and decreased when vaccine programs were introduced. The finding suggests that the temporal behavior of the interepidemic periods of influenza epidemics is correlated with the magnitude of cross-reactive immune responses. (ii)Based on the result of time series analysis, we successfully predicted the incidence of influenza quantitatively.
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