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Accurate and continual water-level prediction in small rivers using inverse estimation method of rainfall-runoff processes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20H02249
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 22040:Hydroengineering-related
Research InstitutionFukushima University

Principal Investigator

YOKOO Yoshiyuki  福島大学, 共生システム理工学類, 教授 (90398503)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 勝山 正則  京都府立大学, 生命環境科学研究科, 教授 (40425426)
Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥5,590,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,290,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥5,590,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,290,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥6,370,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,470,000)
Keywords水位流量曲線 / モデリング / 地表面モデル / 河川流量 / 降水量 / 有効降雨 / 単位図法 / Curve Number法 / 蒸発散量 / 福島県 / 試験流域 / 降雨流出モデル / 桐生水文試験地 / 成分分離 / 貯留量 / 水位 / 降雨流出 / 逆推定 / モデル / 時定数 / 滞留時間
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究は,研究代表者が開発した「主要な降雨流出過程の逆推定・モデリング手法」を応用し,降水量・水位データのみから降雨流出モデルを構築し,中小河川の水位を常時高精度に予測する手法を開発する.さらに,研究分担者が観測研究によって降雨流出過程を解明した試験流域群に本手法を適用し,本手法の妥当性も詳細に検証する.最終的に,実際の中小河川の水位を予測し,予測手法としての実用性を実証する.これら一連の研究を通じて,観測体制や治水・利水施設が一級河川に劣る中小河川の洪水対策と渇水対策を同時に支援することが本研究の最終目標である.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The present study aimed to develop a methodology for the continuous and accurate prediction of water levels in small river watersheds using the "inverse estimation and modeling method for rainfall-runoff processes" developed by the principal investigator. First, we developed several "land surface models" to estimate effective rainfall from observed rainfall. As a result, we found that the method based on the “Curve Number method” was the most appropriate among them. By using the rainfall-runoff model that consists of the "land surface model" and the rainfall-runoff model based on the "inverse estimation and modeling method of rainfall-runoff processes" together with a virtual water-level-discharge rating curve, we could develop a series of methods for estimating water levels in small river watersheds. However, we found that the accuracy of the estimated water level in several actual river watersheds were unsatisfactory, and it needs further improvements.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は,観測網が脆弱な中小河川における水位の常時高精度予測につながる多くの知見を得た.当初,「降雨流出過程の逆推定・モデリング法」を使うことで簡単に水位の常時高精度予測が可能と考えていたものの,それには「地表面モデル」による有効降雨量の常時高精度予測が必要になることが新たに判明した.ここに本研究の学術的意義がある.今後,この「地表面モデル」を改良することで,水位予測精度は改善できると期待できる.水位予測精度が大きく改善すれば,日本全国の中小河川の常時高精度予測が可能になり,水害の軽減や河川の維持管理コストの削減が期待できる点に社会的意義がある.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • 2020 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (25 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (19 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results) Book (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] A multiple hydrograph separation technique for identifying hydrological model structures and an interpretation of dominant process controls on flow duration curves2022

    • Author(s)
      Leong Chris、Yokoo Yoshiyuki
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Processes

      Volume: 36 Issue: 4

    • DOI

      10.1002/hyp.14569

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Effects of Spatial Scales on Runoff/Sediment Transport in Mountain Catchments (4): Avenues for Prediction Improvement2021

    • Author(s)
      UCHIDA Taro、ASANO Yuko、HIRAOKA Marino、YOKOO Yoshiyuki、GOMI Takashi、MIZUGAKI Shigeru、NIWA Satoshi、KATSUYAMA Masanori
    • Journal Title

      JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

      Volume: 34 Issue: 3 Pages: 192-204

    • DOI

      10.3178/jjshwr.34.192

    • NAID

      130008052516

    • ISSN
      0915-1389, 1349-2853
    • Year and Date
      2021-05-05
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A step toward global scale applicability and transferability of flow duration curve studies: A flow duration curve review (2000-2020)2021

    • Author(s)
      Leong, C., Yokoo, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Hydrology

      Volume: 603 Pages: 126964-126964

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126984

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The Kiryu Experimental Watershed: 50‐years of rainfall‐runoff data for a forest catchment in central Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Katsuyama Masanori、Ohte Nobuhito、Kosugi Yoshiko、Tani Makoto
    • Journal Title

      Hydrological Processes

      Volume: 35 Issue: 3

    • DOI

      10.1002/hyp.14104

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 降雨流出過程の逆推定法を用いた河川水位の推定手法に関する検討2023

    • Author(s)
      田﨑勝也,横尾善之
    • Organizer
      令和4年度土木学会東北支部技術研究発表会,II-53,東北工業大学(オンライン),2023年3月4日
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 降雨流出過程の逆推定法を利用した分布型降雨流出モデルのパラメータの同定法の検討2023

    • Author(s)
      奥崎綾介,横尾善之
    • Organizer
      令和4年度土木学会東北支部技術研究発表会,II-50,東北工業大学(オンライン),2023年3月4日
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 森林流域における 50 年間の土砂流出量変動と近年の増加要因の推定2023

    • Author(s)
      島田康平, 勝山正則, 堀田紀文
    • Organizer
      第134回森林学会, 鳥取大学(オンライン開催), 2023/3/25~27.
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 溶出実験による風化花崗岩山地の地下水 ・ 渓流水のシリカ濃度形成機構の検討2023

    • Author(s)
      田中未涼, 勝山正則
    • Organizer
      第134回森林学会, 鳥取大学(オンライン開催), 2023/3/25~27.
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 熱赤外画像により特定された河道沿いの湧水分布と渓流水量水質変動の関係性2023

    • Author(s)
      峰重乃々佳, 勝山正則
    • Organizer
      第134回森林学会, 鳥取大学(オンライン開催), 2023/3/25~27.
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A data-based modeling approach of rainfall-runoff processes: its development history and a blueprint for the future2022

    • Author(s)
      Yoshiyuki Yokoo
    • Organizer
      The 10th International Symposium on Water Environment Systems - with Perspective of Global Safety, Tohoku University, Hybrid, December 9, 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 降雨流出過程の逆推定法における地表面モデルの構築法の検討2022

    • Author(s)
      早野浩一朗,横尾善之
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会/日本水文科学会2022年度研究発表会,OP-1-02,京都大学,2022年9月4日(オンライン発表)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Kiryu Experimental Watershed: the temperate forest catchment under Asian monsoon climate2022

    • Author(s)
      Ohte, N., Katsuyama, M., Osaka, K.
    • Organizer
      Frontiers in Hydrology, Online / San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2022.6.23.
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 山地源流域におけるストロンチウム安定同位体比を用いた基岩内地下水動態の把握 -花崗岩山地と付加体堆積岩山地の比較-2022

    • Author(s)
      勝山正則, 滝澤遼, 新長千聖, 申基澈, 正岡直也, 小杉賢一朗
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会, 幕張メッセ国際会議場, 2022.5.27.
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 降雨流出過程の逆推定法による降雨流出モデリング:地表面モデルの構築法の検討2022

    • Author(s)
      早野浩一朗,横尾善之
    • Organizer
      令和3年度土木学会東北支部技術研究発表会, II-13, 八戸,2022年3月5日 (オンライン開催)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 降雨流出過程の逆推定法を利用した中小河川における水位予測手法の開発2022

    • Author(s)
      佐藤光, 横尾善之
    • Organizer
      令和3年度土木学会東北支部技術研究発表会,II-15, 八戸, 2022年3月5日(オンライン開催)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 塩化物イオン収支を用いた隣接小流域における深部地下水浸透量の定量化2022

    • Author(s)
      浅野陽平, 勝山正則
    • Organizer
      第133回日本森林学会, 山形大学(オンライン開催), 2022.3.27-29
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Application of flexible model structures to interpret dominant process controls on flow duration curves2021

    • Author(s)
      Chris Leong, Yoshiyuki Yokoo
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Sustainable Water Resources Management- Global Challenges and Opportunity -, Committee on Global Environment, JSCE, On-line, Sep. 10, 2021.
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Effects of denitrification process on the difference in streamwater nitrate concentration between neighboring subcatchments in a temperate forest, Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Katsuyama, M., Shirai, R., Fukushima, K., Onishi, Y., Koba, K.
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting, Online/New Orleans, 2021.12.16.
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Effect of spatial scales on runoff / sediment transport in mountain catchments2020

    • Author(s)
      Asano, Y., Uchida, T., Gomi, T., Mizugaki, S., Hiraoka, M., Katsuyama, M., Niwa, S., Yokoo, Y.
    • Organizer
      A-HW33-01, JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020, On-line, July 14, 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Towards improving predictivity of runoff and sediment transport for mountainous catchments through measurement of spatial patterns of hydrological behaviors2020

    • Author(s)
      Uchida, T., Asano, Y., Mizugaki, S., Yokoo, Y., Hiraoka, M., Gomi, T., Niwa, S., Katsuyama, M.
    • Organizer
      A-HW33-05, JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020, On-line, July 14, 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Understanding catchment processes and scale effect on catchment flows2020

    • Author(s)
      Leong, C., Yokoo, Y.
    • Organizer
      A-HW33-10, JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020, On-line, July 14, 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Applying a data-based rainfall runoff modeling approach to interpret the mechanisms of decreasing spatial variability of subcatchment-specific discharge with increasing subcatchment area2020

    • Author(s)
      Yokoo, Y., Sakairi, T., Leong, C.
    • Organizer
      A-HW33-11, JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020, On-line, July 14, 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Dependency of watershed-scale rainwater storage on watershed-area at the occurrence times of slope failures: a preliminary investigation in Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Satou, H,, Yokoo, Y., Leong, C.
    • Organizer
      A-HW33-P03, JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2020, On-line, July 14, 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 水文・水資源学会(編)水文・水資源ハンドブック 第二版「5.2 森林域の水文現象」「6.5 同位体・トレーサ」2022

    • Author(s)
      勝山正則
    • Total Pages
      640
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • ISBN
      9784254261745
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 大槻恭一, 久米朋宣, 笠原玉青(編), 森林水文学入門, 「第10章 流出」2022

    • Author(s)
      勝山正則
    • Total Pages
      256
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • ISBN
      9784254470604
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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