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Fiscal Multiplier under Secular Stagnation: A Comparison between the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K01706
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
Research InstitutionKobe University

Principal Investigator

Miyazaki Tomomi  神戸大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (20410673)

Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords公共投資 / 財政政策 / 財政乗数
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究の目的は、長期停滞経済下における市町村の財政乗数の計測を行うことである。より具体的には、阪神・淡路大震災と東日本大震災を対象とし、市町村データを用いて財政乗数を計測する。
従来の財政乗数に関する研究とは異なり、二つの大震災を「自然実験」として捉え、市町村別かつ産業別データにより財政乗数を計測する。とりわけ、ゼロ金利制約下でなされた東日本大震災の復興投資が、「震災復興」と「経済再生」という二つの政策目標を同時に達成できたのか否かも検証する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We aim to examine the effects of disaster relief on employment recovery. To do this, we focus on the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake. Regarding the former, we did not show statistically significant effects on regional employment. With respect to the Great East Japan Earthquake, while simple difference-in-differences estimation does not necessarily show statistically significant results, the estimation results using some matching techniques are robust. Our results suggest that the natural disaster relief for the Great East Japan Earthquake could contribute to employment recovery in afflicted areas, contrary to some theoretical assumptions that fiscal expansion depresses private-sector employment. One reason is that the crowding-out effects triggered by interest hike might not occur given the zero-lower bound environment.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

昨今、震災復興投資に関する研究は、多くの研究者の関心を集めている。金融政策がゼロ金利制約に直面している期間と、それ以外の期間での財政政策の効果の違いは多くの経済学者が指摘しているものの、復興投資の効果を比較した研究は試みられていないようである。近年地域データを用いた財政乗数の計測も試みられるようになったものの、基礎自治体レベルの研究は例が少ない。
以上を踏まえると、本研究は、①多くの研究者が着目する震災復興策に焦点をあて、②ゼロ金利とそれ以外の期間における財政乗数の比較を、③先行研究が稀である基礎自治体レベルを対象に試みる、との点で学術的・社会的に意義があるものと考えられよう。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (18 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (9 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 5 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] カリフォルニア大学アーバイン校(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 社会資本整備と地域雇用:市町村データを用いた計量分析2022

    • Author(s)
      宮崎智視
    • Journal Title

      「ポストコロナ社会における地域経済と 社会資本整備のあり方に関する調査研究」報告書

      Volume: 1 Pages: 28-44

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Property tax and farmland use in urban areas: Evidence from the reform in the early 1990s in Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Miyazaki, T., Sato, M.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 63 Pages: 1-13

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101185

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Tomomi Miyazaki, Haruo Kondoh
    • Journal Title

      Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University Discussion Paper

      Volume: 2206 Pages: 1-78

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 独立財政機関と国債市場:国際比較と日本への政策的含意2021

    • Author(s)
      宮崎智視
    • Journal Title

      ゆうちょ資産研究:研究助成論文集

      Volume: 28 Pages: 31-49

    • NAID

      40022741569

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 市町村レベルのデータを用いた財政政策の効果計測:二つの大震災に着目して2021

    • Author(s)
      宮崎智視
    • Journal Title

      「社会資本整備のマクロおよび地域経済効果に関する理論・実証分析」報告書

      Volume: 1 Pages: 37-49

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] A Model for Built Environment Effects on Model Usage2020

    • Author(s)
      Kai Yoshioka, Tomomi Miyazaki
    • Journal Title

      Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine Working Paper

      Volume: 19-20-09 Pages: 1-29

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 地域財政乗数に関する論点整理2020

    • Author(s)
      宮崎智視
    • Journal Title

      「交通インフラの地域経済効果と財源問題に関する調査研究」報告書

      Volume: 1 Pages: 19-33

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 都市農業と土地税制に関する論点整理2020

    • Author(s)
      宮崎智視
    • Journal Title

      不動産学会誌

      Volume: 32 Pages: 21-26

    • NAID

      130008058519

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 固定資産税と土地利用:1990年代前半の制度改正に着目した実証分析2020

    • Author(s)
      宮崎智視
    • Journal Title

      住宅土地経済

      Volume: 116 Pages: 10-17

    • NAID

      40022201841

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Tomomi Miyazaki
    • Organizer
      The 60th Annual Meeting of the Public Choice Society
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions and Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan2022

    • Author(s)
      Tomomi Miyazaki
    • Organizer
      The Singapore Economic Review Conference 2022
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Property Tax Reform and Land Use: Evidence Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Tomomi Miyazaki
    • Organizer
      CUFE Webinar Series on Property Tax Design and Administration
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Property Tax Reform and Land Use: Evidence Japan2021

    • Author(s)
      Tomomi Miyazaki
    • Organizer
      The 15th North American Meeting of the Urban Economic Association
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Stock Market Response to Public Investment under the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-Industry Evidence from Japan2020

    • Author(s)
      Tomomi Miyazaki
    • Organizer
      The 113th Annual Conference on Taxation
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Tax Morale and Tax Resistance: Evidence from a Representative Japanese Population Survey.2020

    • Author(s)
      Tomomi Miyazaki
    • Organizer
      The 19th International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 経済学の歩き方(2023年度版,宮崎は「7.2 財政学」(p.231-236)を担当)2023

    • Author(s)
      神戸大学経済経営学会編
    • Total Pages
      391
    • Publisher
      神戸大学経済経営学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] Working Papers 2019-20

    • URL

      https://www.economics.uci.edu/research/wp/ec_wp_1920.php

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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