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Modeling and application of maintenance policies for large-scale disasters which mimize the loss cost and improve efficiency of maintenance one

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K04992
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 25010:Social systems engineering-related
Research InstitutionAichi Institute of Technology

Principal Investigator

Mizutani Satoshi  愛知工業大学, 経営学部, 教授 (40469060)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 中川 覃夫  愛知工業大学, 経営学部, 研究員 (60076544)
Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords信頼性理論 / 保全方策 / 取替問題 / 点検方策 / 確率モデル / WIB 問題 / ランダムk-out-of-nシステム / 信頼性 / 保全性 / ランダム取替 / 逐次点検 / 保全費用 / 最適化 / 最適保全方策 / 災害故障 / リスク軽減 / 応用確率 / 独立損傷過程
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究では、工場設備、データベースシステム、通信システムなどの振る舞いを確率モデルとして構築し、最適な保全方策について解析的に議論する。とくに、故障が2種類に分類されるモデル、強い衝撃が複数回だけ発生したならば予防保全を行うモデル、2つのユニットからなるシステムにおいて、独立に衝撃が発生し、故障が発生したならば、一方のユニットの信頼性に影響を与えるモデルについて検討する。次の手順で研究を進める。(1) システムの振る舞いのモデル化、(2) 単位時間当りの期待費用の導出、(3) 期待費用を最小にする最適保全方策の議論、(4) 数値例と実際のシステムへの適用に向けた考察と提案。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We proposed some models for overtime maintenance policy with two failure modes. One of the failure modes is unit failure at which the unit is replaced when the unit fails, and the other is minimal failure at which the unit is repaired when the unit fails. Further, we consider optimal preventive maintenance time for reliable system consisted of n unit. We wrote foreign book titled ”Which-Is-Better (WIB): Problems in Reliability Theory”, Springer (2023.6) (Satoshi Mizutani, Xufeng Zhao, Toshio Nakagawa) of comparison of stochastic models in reliable theory of maintenance policy.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

多発する大規模な自然災害に対応するため、設備の強度を向上させるといった対策の他に、保全取替を適切に計画し実際に実施することも重要である。このように、災害対策は様々な要因を考慮する必要があり、とくに経済性に関しては短期的視野に陥ることがないようにしなければならない。信頼性理論は、様々な災害などのリスクに対し、稼働率や平均故障時間(MTTF)などの評価指標とその計算方法などを提案してきた。これらの研究成果は、災害に対応する保全計画を立案するための理論的基礎として有用である。また、具体的に数値例を上げて具体的な保全計画を立てる事ができる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (23 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (4 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 2 results) Presentation (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 8 results,  Invited: 1 results) Book (4 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] 南京航空航天大学(中国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Optimal Inspection Policies to Minimize Expected Cost Rates2022

    • Author(s)
      Mizutani Satoshi, Zhao Xufeng, Nakagawa Toshio
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering

      Volume: 29 Issue: 03

    • DOI

      10.1142/s0218539322500012

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Age and periodic replacement policies with two failure modes in general replacement models2021

    • Author(s)
      Mizutani Satoshi、Zhao Xufeng、Nakagawa Toshio
    • Journal Title

      Reliability Engineering & System Safety

      Volume: 214 Pages: 107754-107754

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ress.2021.107754

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Which Replacement Is Better at Working Cycles or Number of Failures2020

    • Author(s)
      S. Mizutani, X. Zhao and T. Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      IEICE Transactions on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences

      Volume: E103.A Issue: 2 Pages: 523-532

    • DOI

      10.1587/transfun.2019EAP1049

    • NAID

      130007793366

    • ISSN
      0916-8508, 1745-1337
    • Year and Date
      2020-02-01
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Preventive replacement policies with products update announcements2020

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani, Wenjie Dong, Xufeng Zhao & Toshio Nakagawa
    • Journal Title

      Communication in Statistics-Theory and Methods

      Volume: 15 Issue: 15 Pages: 3821-3833

    • DOI

      10.1080/03610926.2019.1710762

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Equilibrium Maintenance Costs between Random and Non-Random Replacements2022

    • Author(s)
      Mizutani Satoshi, Zhao Xufeng, Nakagawa Toshio
    • Organizer
      27th ISSAT International Conference Reliability and Quality in Design
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Optimal Replacement Policies with Deviation Times for Cumulative Damage Processes2022

    • Author(s)
      Zhao Xufeng, Wang Lubing, Mizutani Satoshi, Nakagawa Toshio
    • Organizer
      27th ISSAT International Conference Reliability and Quality in Design
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 期待費用が年齢・定期取替と等しくなるランダム取替の保全費用2022

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Extended Sequential Inspection Times to Minimize Expected Cost Rates2022

    • Author(s)
      Zhao Xufeng, Wang Lubing, Mizutani Satoshi, Nakagawa Toshio
    • Organizer
      Asia Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Reliability and Maintenance Analysis of General Redundant Systems2022

    • Author(s)
      Nakagawa Toshio, Mizutani Satoshi, Zhao Xufeng
    • Organizer
      Asia Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 拡張年齢取替方策を適用した冗長システムの数値例による比較考察2021

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 (2021-05-28)
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 単位時間当りの期待費用を最小にする点検方策の数値解析2021

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会 (2021-07-17)
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 単位時間当りの期待費用を最小にする逐次点検時刻計算手法2021

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会, 2022年春季発表会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Nine Memorial Research Works2021

    • Author(s)
      Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      The Reliability and Maintenance Engineering Summit 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Replacement First and Last Policies With Random Times for Redundant Systems2021

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani
    • Organizer
      The Reliability and Maintenance Engineering Summit 2021
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Optimal Inspection Policies Minimizing Expected Cost Rates2021

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani, Xufeng Zhao, Toshio Nakagawa
    • Organizer
      26th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Random Replacement Policies for Two Failure Modes2020

    • Author(s)
      Mizutani Satoshi, Zhao Xufeng, Nakagawa Toshio
    • Organizer
      The 9th Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling (APARM 2020)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 二つの故障モードを考慮したオーバタイム取替方策2020

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      日本OR学会2020年度春季研究発表会(アブストラクト集)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] ランダムK-out-of-nシステムを応用した冗長システムに対する保全方策2020

    • Author(s)
      水谷聡志,中川覃夫
    • Organizer
      電子情報通信学会技術研究報告, 信頼性研究会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Reliability and Maintenance Modeling with Optimization: Advances and Applications2023

    • Author(s)
      Edited By Mitsutaka Kimura, Satoshi Mizutani, Mitsuhiro Imaizumi, Kodo Ito
    • Total Pages
      372
    • Publisher
      CRC Press
    • ISBN
      9780367558055
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Which-Is-Better (WIB): Problems in Reliability Theory2023

    • Author(s)
      Mizutani Satoshi, Zhao Xufeng, Nakagawa Toshio
    • Total Pages
      287
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9783031273155
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Handbook of Advanced Performability Engineering (chapter 23: WIB (Which-Is-Better) Problems in Maintenance Reliability Policies))2021

    • Author(s)
      Satoshi Mizutani, Xufeng Zhao, Toshio Nakagawa (Eds. K.B. Misra)
    • Total Pages
      809
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9783030557348
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Handbook of Advanced Performability Engineering2021

    • Author(s)
      Misra, Krishna B. (Ed.)
    • Total Pages
      811
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • ISBN
      9783030557324
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

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Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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