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A study to evaluate stress state in and around a fault zone based on micro seismicity

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K05050
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 25030:Disaster prevention engineering-related
Research InstitutionUniversity of Shizuoka

Principal Investigator

Nanjo Kazuyoshi  静岡県立大学, その他部局等, 特任准教授 (10549504)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 鴨川 仁  静岡県立大学, その他部局等, 特任准教授 (00329111)
井筒 潤  中部大学, 工学部, 教授 (90362433)
Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2022)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
Keywords地震 / 応力 / 断層 / 防災工学 / 地殻変動
Outline of Research at the Start

2016 年熊本地震前後で、地震を起こした断層付近の地震活動が変化した。その変化から、断層付近で大局的に応力は減少したが、その断層の南端で応力が増加していることが分かった。このことから、今後更に応力増加があれば、その南端を起点として次の地震が起きる可能性が示唆される。そこで本研究の目的は、熊本地震以外の最近の10個の大地震でも応力変化が起きたかを明らかにすることである。この研究から、地震が続発する可能性があるかを明らかにする。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose is to clarify whether the change of the stress state in the underground caused by the occurrence of large earthquakes can be estimated from the change of the seismicity of small-scale magnitudes. Since several methods that can be utilized for estimating the stress state have been proposed individually, this study has made a research environment to apply them comprehensively. The result was to demonstrate several cases using this environment to reveal detailed stress changes around the fault zone where a large earthquake occurred.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

学術的意義|応力状態の推定に活用できる複数の手法が提案されてきたが、手法間の比較は積極的には行われなかった。本研究の立場は従来と異なり、複数の手法を併用し互いに補う戦略をとった。この戦略により、丁寧に地震活動を見るチャンスが生まれると考えた。手法間の比較を容易にする研究環境を整備できた点で意義がある。
社会的意義|地震が続発する可能性があるかどうかを評価する事例を示せた点で本研究は意義がある。後続の大地震に対して事前の備えを充実させるなど被害の軽減につなげることに資する基礎研究として位置付けられる。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (37 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Journal Article (9 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 8 results) Presentation (24 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Invited: 5 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] 地震学習会「ジオパーク活動で使える地震学6: 決定論的地震予知から確率論的地震予測への道のり」参加報告2022

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Journal Title

      地震学会ニュースレター

      Volume: 75

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Changes in seismicity pattern due to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence and implications for improving the foreshock traffic-light system2022

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo K.Z.、Izutsu J.、Orihara Y.、Kamogawa M.
    • Journal Title

      Tectonophysics

      Volume: 822 Pages: 229175-229175

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229175

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Changes in the b value in and around the focal areas of the M6.9 and M6.8 earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi prefecture, Japan, in 20212021

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo K. Z.、Yoshida A.
    • Journal Title

      Earth, Planets and Space

      Volume: 73 Issue: 1 Pages: 176-176

    • DOI

      10.1186/s40623-021-01511-3

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] b値にもとづく大地震発生予測のモデルのレビュー2021

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Journal Title

      地震予知連絡会会報

      Volume: 105 Pages: 489-492

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Were changes in stress state responsible for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes?2020

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo K. Z.
    • Journal Title

      Nature Communications

      Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 3082-3082

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41467-020-16867-5

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Capability of Tokai Strainmeter Network to Detect and Locate a Slow Slip: First Results2020

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo K. Z.
    • Journal Title

      Pure and Applied Geophysics

      Volume: 177 Issue: 6 Pages: 2701-2718

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00024-019-02367-1

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Predicting the unpredictable2020

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo K. Z.
    • Journal Title

      Impact

      Volume: 2020 Issue: 6 Pages: 35-37

    • DOI

      10.21820/23987073.2020.6.35

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 小さな地震が大地震を探るカギ?カリフォルニアの直下型大地震の解析から異常をとらえ、防災につなげる2020

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Journal Title

      academist journal

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Changes in stress state and seismicity pattern responsible for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes2020

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo Kazuyoshi
    • Journal Title

      ESSOAr

      Volume: -

    • DOI

      10.1002/essoar.10504871.1

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Presentation] Hierarchical Space-Time ETAS (HIST-ETAS)モデルを用いたオンライン地震活動評価の実証実験2023

    • Author(s)
      楠城 一嘉
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2023年大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A preliminary analysis of seismic activity off the coast of Ito, Shizuoka2023

    • Author(s)
      楠城 一嘉, 行竹洋平, 熊澤貴雄
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2023年大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Preliminary analysis of earthquake detection probabilities and completeness levels for the Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET)2023

    • Author(s)
      Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Keisuke Ariyoshi, Yojiro Yamamoto, Hiroki Horikawa, Shuichiro Yada, Narumi Takahashi
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2023年大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Spatial variability of the response of the Nagano seismicity to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, in Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉, 井筒潤, 鴨川仁, 堀高峰, 尾池和夫
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2023年大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Seismicity before and after the 2023 M7.8 and M7.5 earthquake sequence in Turkey: a preliminary report2023

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo, Kazuyoshi, Izutsu, Jun, Kamogawa, Masashi, Hori, Takane, Nagao, Toshiyasu, Oike, Kazuo
    • Organizer
      The 28th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A Preliminary Report on Evaluating Online Seismicity: a Demonstration Experiment Using the Space-time ETAS Model2023

    • Author(s)
      Kazuyoshi Nanjo
    • Organizer
      AOGS2023 - Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Volcanism of Mount Fuji activated by the 2011 Japanese large earthquakes2023

    • Author(s)
      K. Z. Nanjo, Y. Yukutake, T. Kumazawa
    • Organizer
      EGU2023
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 富士山噴火予知実現のための多角的監視2022

    • Author(s)
      長尾年恭, 鴨川仁, 楠城一嘉
    • Organizer
      日本地震予知学会 第9回学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 静岡県立大学グローバル地域センター自然災害研究部門の業務活動と研究活動の一例の紹介2022

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Organizer
      静岡地方気象台談話会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 富士山の低周波地震の検知と統計解析, 日本地震学会2022年度秋季大会2022

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉, 行竹洋平, 熊澤貴雄
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Studies to evaluate seismicity using statistical methods2022

    • Author(s)
      K. Z. Nanjo
    • Organizer
      2022 Electromagnetic Studies of Earthquakes and Volcanoes (EMSEV)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] A study on detection of low-frequency earthquakes at Mt. Fuji and data quality evaluation2022

    • Author(s)
      K. Z. Nanjo, Y. Yukutake
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report 2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 地震災害予測のための地球観測データのデジタルアースへの適用 -地震活動度解析の高度化と可視化-2022

    • Author(s)
      長尾年恭, 楠城一嘉, 鴨川仁, 井筒潤
    • Organizer
      問題複合体を対象とするデジタルアース共同利用・共同研究拠点 2021年度成果報告会, 中部大学中部高等学術研究所国際GISセンター
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 自然地震の地震活動解析について2022

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Organizer
      研究集会「地震活動の統計モデルと物理的意味」
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence implying the possible improvement of the Foreshock Traffic-Light System2021

    • Author(s)
      K. Z. Nanjo, J. Izutsu, Y. Orihara, M. Kamogawa
    • Organizer
      日本地震予知学会 第8回学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 統計科学的手法を用いて地震活動を評価する研究2021

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Organizer
      統計物理と統計科学のセミナー 統計数理研究所
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A preliminary study on low-frequency earthquakes at Mt. Fuji, Japan, using the matched filter method2021

    • Author(s)
      K. Z. Nanjo and Y. Yukutake
    • Organizer
      AGU 2021 Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA and virtual
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Matched Filter法を用いて富士山の低周波地震を検知する研究:序報2021

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉, 行竹洋平, 野田洋一
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] DONETの観測に基づく地震カタログを品質評価する研究:序報2021

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉, 有吉慶介, 高橋成実, 矢田修一郎, 山本揚二朗, 堀高峰
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2021年大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 富士山直下で起きる低周波地震の研究の序報:Matched Filter法を用いた地震カタログの作成とカタログの性能評価2021

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉, 行竹洋平
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2016年熊本地震前後の地震活動のパターンについて2021

    • Author(s)
      楠城 一嘉, 井筒潤, 織原義明, 鴨川仁
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2021年度秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Changes in stress state associated with the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes2020

    • Author(s)
      K. Z. Nanjo
    • Organizer
      JpGU - AGU Joint Meeting 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] b値にもとづく大地震発生予測のモデルのレビュー2020

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Organizer
      第229回地震 予知連絡会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Changes in stress state and seismicity pattern responsible for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes2020

    • Author(s)
      Kazuyoshi Nanjo
    • Organizer
      AGU fall meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] 地震と火山と防災のはなし2022

    • Author(s)
      楠城一嘉
    • Total Pages
      120
    • Publisher
      成山堂書店
    • ISBN
      9784425514915
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 熊本地震の本震前に本震発生の兆候を示す特徴があったことを発見

    • URL

      https://www.u-shizuoka-ken.ac.jp/news/20221223-1/

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 2021年3月と5月に続けて起きた宮城県沖の地震

    • URL

      https://www.global-center.jp/media/2021114-133151-692.pdf

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 直下型大地震の研究成果が『Nature Communications』に掲載

    • URL

      https://www.u-shizuoka-ken.ac.jp/news/20200617-1/

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2024-01-30  

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