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Causal effects of physical activity on health outcomes including dementia among older adults: a proposal of a new instrumental variable

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K18931
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Sato Koryu  京都大学, 医学研究科, 助教 (20867965)

Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Keywords身体活動 / 認知症 / うつ傾向 / 操作変数法 / COVID-19 / 引退 / 心疾患 / 身体不活動 / 年金支給開始年齢 / 新型コロナウイルス感染症 / ソーシャルキャピタル / 高齢者 / 操作変数 / 食生活 / ワクチン / かかりつけ医 / 歩数 / 在宅勤務 / うつ
Outline of Research at the Start

これまで高齢者の身体不活動は認知症リスクを上昇させると考えられ、適度な運動が推奨されてきたが、明確なエビデンスは存在しない。本研究は、操作変数法という手法を用い、ランダム化比較実験のように比較可能な二群を見つけることで、高齢者の身体活動が本当に認知症のリスクを下げる効果があるのかどうか検証を行う。また、同様の手法を、身体活動との間に逆の因果関係バイアスが生じる可能性のあるうつ病や生活習慣病といったアウトカムにも応用する。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

By applying causal inference methods (including the instrumental variable method) to a large prospective cohort study, this project revealed the impact of lifestyle (including physical activity) and socio-economic factors on health. Specifically, it showed that physical activity once per week lowers the risk of dementia, suggesting that the causal effect of physical activity on lowering the risk of dementia persists for at least four years.
The study also showed that, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic that occurred during the study period, people who decreased their number of steps or increased their working hours during the emergency declaration period had a higher risk of depression, while those who newly started working from home had a 17% lower risk of depression than the rest of the population.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、積雪地域の居住を高齢者の身体活動の操作変数として用いるというアイデアを新たに提案し、身体活動と認知症リスクの因果関係を明らかにした。また、研究期間中に生じた新型コロナウイルス感染症の流行に対し、日本老年学的評価研究(JAGES)の中で2020年度の臨時調査を行い、2019年度のデータと接続することで思い出しバイアスの少ない質の高いデータを整備した。さらに、パンデミック前後での身体活動やソーシャルキャピタルの変化が、うつ傾向と関連することを示した。

Report

(5 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (13 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (8 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 8 results,  Open Access: 8 results) Presentation (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Harvard University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Retirement and cardiovascular disease: a longitudinal study in 35 countries2023

    • Author(s)
      Sato Koryu、Noguchi Haruko、Inoue Kosuke、Kawachi Ichiro、Kondo Naoki
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 52 Issue: 4 Pages: 1047-1059

    • DOI

      10.1093/ije/dyad058

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Functional Disability: a Cohort Study of Japanese Older Adults in 2013?20192023

    • Author(s)
      Lu Yongjian、Sato Koryu、Nagai Masato、Miyatake Hirokazu、Kondo Katsunori、Kondo Naoki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of General Internal Medicine

      Volume: 38 Issue: 11 Pages: 2486-2493

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11606-023-08215-2

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Association of Pneumococcal and Influenza Vaccination With Patient–Physician Communication in Older Adults: A Nationwide Cross-sectional Study From the JAGES 20162022

    • Author(s)
      Sato Koryu、Kondo Naoki、Murata Chiyoe、Shobugawa Yugo、Saito Kousuke、Kondo Katsunori
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Epidemiology

      Volume: 32 Issue: 9 Pages: 401-407

    • DOI

      10.2188/jea.JE20200505

    • NAID

      130007981650

    • ISSN
      0917-5040, 1349-9092
    • Year and Date
      2022-09-05
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Pre-pandemic individual- and community-level social capital and depressive symptoms during COVID-19: A longitudinal study of Japanese older adults in 2019-212022

    • Author(s)
      Sato Koryu、Kondo Naoki、Kondo Katsunori
    • Journal Title

      Health & Place

      Volume: 74 Pages: 102772-102772

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.healthplace.2022.102772

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report 2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Characteristics associated with optimistic or pessimistic perception about the probability of contracting COVID-19: A cross-sectional study of Japanese older adults2022

    • Author(s)
      Takemura Yuta、Sato Koryu、Kondo Katsunori、Kondo Naoki
    • Journal Title

      SSM - Population Health

      Volume: 19 Pages: 101186-101186

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101186

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Working from home and dietary changes during the COVID-19 pandemic: A longitudinal study of health app (CALO mama) users2021

    • Author(s)
      Sato Koryu、Kobayashi Satomi、Yamaguchi Mai、Sakata Ryohei、Sasaki Yuki、Murayama Chiaki、Kondo Naoki
    • Journal Title

      Appetite

      Volume: 165 Pages: 105323-105323

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.appet.2021.105323

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Potential causal effect of physical activity on reducing the risk of dementia: a 6-year cohort study from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study2021

    • Author(s)
      Sato Koryu、Kondo Naoki、Hanazato Masamichi、Tsuji Taishi、Kondo Katsunori
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity

      Volume: 18 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.1186/s12966-021-01212-w

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Changes in work and life patterns associated with depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study of health app (CALO mama) users2021

    • Author(s)
      Sato Koryu、Sakata Ryohei、Murayama Chiaki、Yamaguchi Mai、Matsuoka Yoko、Kondo Naoki
    • Journal Title

      Occupational and Environmental Medicine

      Volume: 早期公開 Issue: 9 Pages: 632-637

    • DOI

      10.1136/oemed-2020-106945

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Retirement and cardiovascular disease: a longitudinal study in 35 countries2023

    • Author(s)
      Koryu Sato
    • Organizer
      Society for Epidemiologic Research
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ソーシャルキャピタルは新型コロナの流行に伴うメンタルヘルスの危機に有効か?2022

    • Author(s)
      佐藤豪竜、近藤尚己、近藤克則
    • Organizer
      第32回日本疫学会学術総会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 京都大学大学院 近藤研究室(社会疫学分野)との共同研究を論文発表しました

    • URL

      https://www.linkncom.co.jp/news/press/534/

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 新型コロナワクチンへの示唆 高齢者のワクチン接種 カギはかかりつけ医

    • URL

      https://www.jages.net/library/pressrelease/?action=cabinet_action_main_download&block_id=3333&room_id=549&cabinet_id=224&file_id=9184&upload_id=11482

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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