• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Theoretical and empirical study of collective decision-making focusing on the timing of opinion statements in social networks

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K19929
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 62020:Web informatics and service informatics-related
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo (2022-2023)
Rikkyo University (2020-2021)

Principal Investigator

Ito Mariko  東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 特任助教 (80838847)

Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Keywords集団意思決定 / 集合知 / 逐次的意思決定 / 複雑ネットワーク / 点過程 / 意思表明タイミング / 社会情報 / データ解析 / 数理モデル
Outline of Research at the Start

人の集団意思決定の質は,人々の意見間の影響関係に大きく依存する.例えば強い意見間の影響により集合知の劣化や情報カスケードが起こり得ることが知られている.近年そのメカニズムの理解を目的とした実証・理論研究が盛んに行われている.本研究では,各個人の意思決定・表明タイミングに注目する.
集団意思決定において,各個人は自己のもつ情報や他者の意思決定内容・タイミングに基づいてどのように自己の意思表明タイミングを調整するかを分析する.また,各個人の意思決定戦略が生み出す意見間の影響関係や集団意思決定結果について解明する.

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We have empirically and theoretically investigated the relationship between the timing of individuals' decision-making and the accuracy of both individuals and the group. Through empirical analyses, we found that heterogeneity in the temporal distribution of opinion statements is associated with group accuracy. Additionally, we theoretically studied the sequential decision-making of individuals with varying abilities to independently find the correct answer. We successfully derived an algorithm for each individual to maximize their decision accuracy and identified the existence of “casting voters,” who contribute significantly to the group's collective intelligence.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の成果は,より正確な集団意思決定を生み出すメカニズムの解明に貢献できると期待する.集団意思決定研究における大きな問題の一つは,人々の社会的相互作用が引き起こす意見間の相関が集団意思決定の質に悪影響を与えることである.近年,社会的相互作用下での各個人の最適意思決定や意見集約方法について盛んに議論されている.本研究では,人々の意思表明タイミングが,意見間の相関関係や集団意思決定の正確さに多大に影響を与えることを示すことができた.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2023 2022 2021 2020

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 4 results)

  • [Journal Article] Casting votes of antecedents play a key role in successful sequential decision-making2023

    • Author(s)
      Ito Mariko I.、Sasaki Akira
    • Journal Title

      PLOS ONE

      Volume: 18 Issue: 2 Pages: e0282062-e0282062

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0282062

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] ID-POS Data Analysis Using TV Commercial Viewership Data2022

    • Author(s)
      Horikomi Taizo、Ito Mariko I.、Ohnishi Takaaki
    • Journal Title

      The Review of Socionetwork Strategies

      Volume: 16 Issue: 2 Pages: 431-451

    • DOI

      10.1007/s12626-022-00116-w

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Co-occurrence network of TV advertisements revealing Japanese lifestyle2021

    • Author(s)
      Mariko I. Ito, Takaaki Ohnishi
    • Journal Title

      Applied Network Science

      Volume: 6 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-19

    • DOI

      10.1007/s41109-021-00393-4

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Uncovering the Image Structure of Japanese TV Commercials Through a Co-occurrence Network Representation2020

    • Author(s)
      Mariko I. Ito, Takaaki Ohnishi
    • Journal Title

      In: Benito R.M., Cherifi C., Cherifi H., Moro E., Rocha L.M., Sales-Pardo M. (eds) Complex Networks & Their Applications IX. COMPLEX NETWORKS 2020.

      Volume: 943 Pages: 273-283

    • DOI

      10.1007/978-3-030-65347-7_23

    • ISBN
      9783030653460, 9783030653477
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Casting votes in sequential decision-making2023

    • Author(s)
      Mariko Ito, Akira Sasaki
    • Organizer
      6th ESLR Workshop 2023, Max Planck Institute for Human Development
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Characteristics in point process of collective decision-making and group performance2023

    • Author(s)
      Mariko Ito
    • Organizer
      The 23rd Conference of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS), Santiago, Chile
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] キャスティングボートが最適な逐次意思決定の鍵を握る2022

    • Author(s)
      伊藤真利子,佐々木顕
    • Organizer
      第32回日本数理生物学会大会(2022年度年会)
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 共起ネットワークを用いたCMのイメージ構造の分析2022

    • Author(s)
      伊藤真利子, 大西立顕
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会第77回年次大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Individuals' timings of decision-making and group performance2022

    • Author(s)
      Mariko Ito
    • Organizer
      APS March meeting 2022
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Burstiness and accuracy of collective decision-making2021

    • Author(s)
      Mariko Ito
    • Organizer
      DPG Spring Meeting
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 意思表明間隔と意思決定の正確さ2020

    • Author(s)
      伊藤真利子
    • Organizer
      2020年度 日本数理生物学会年会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2020-04-28   Modified: 2025-01-30  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi