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A New Nuclear Deterrence Strategy for the Next Generation that Reconciles with Nuclear Disarmament

Research Project

Project/Area Number 20K20416
Project/Area Number (Other) 19H05484 (2019)
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Pioneering)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund (2020)
Single-year Grants (2019)
Review Section Medium-sized Section 6:Political science and related fields
Research InstitutionWaseda University

Principal Investigator

Kurizaki Shuhei  早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 准教授 (70708099)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 広瀬 健太郎  新潟県立大学, 国際地域学部, 准教授 (90764738)
芝井 清久  統計数理研究所, データ科学研究系, 特任助教 (90768467)
Project Period (FY) 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥25,740,000 (Direct Cost: ¥19,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥5,940,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥5,850,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,350,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥6,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Keywords核抑止 / 核廃絶 / ゲーム理論 / 核軍縮 / エスカレーション / 技術革新 / 核兵器 / 抑止 / 科学技術 / 科学技術革新 / 安全保障 / 抑止理論 / 技術革命
Outline of Research at the Start

核兵器は誰もが廃絶したいと思う一方で、核兵器を実際になくすことは簡単ではありません。例えば我が国は毎年国連で「核兵器廃絶決議案」を提出する一方で「核兵器禁止条約」には反対の立場をとっています。これは日本だけではなく各国に共有するジレンマです。核廃絶という夢と現実に存在する核の脅威から守る必要に直面した時、安全保障を確保せざるを得ない現実主義が核なき世界という平和主義に優先してしまうのです。なぜ現実主義と平和主義は両立できないのか。それは核の脅威には核兵器を使った政策しか持ち合わせていないからです。この研究は核兵器を使わずに従来のように安全を確保できる新しい核戦略をゲーム理論を使って考案します。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The overall achievement of this research project is it has explored the implications of the changes in the legal norms against the use of nuclear weapons against civilians (the moral revolution) and the recent developments in precision-strike capabilities (the accuracy revolution). This project establishes that the moral revolution also undermines nuclear deterrence and it must be accompanied by a new nuclear retaliatory strategy made possible by the accuracy revolution. This project offers the game-theoretic models to articulate these points. Our tentative conclusion from this project offers a series of conjectures (not definite propositions yet) about the properties of a new deterrent strategy in comparison to the standard game-theoretic model of nuclear deterrence.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

核兵器の脅威への対処策としての核抑止を確立するためには必ずしも核兵器による反撃が必要でないことを示した。さらに核兵器の使用が前提とする民間都市を標的とする非人道性を排除し、精緻誘導や遠隔絵センシングなどの新興技術を用いることで、通常兵器によって核抑止を達成し、さらには従来型の核抑止体制に内在していた信憑性問題も同時に克服することが可能であることを示した。これにより、核軍縮という平和主義と、核抑止という現実主義が、排他的な二項対立ではなく、両立が可能であることを数理モデルで示すことが出来た。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (24 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (6 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (17 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] スタンフォド大学(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] A matter of trust: Public support for country ownership over aid2024

    • Author(s)
      Hirose Kentaro、Montinola Gabriella R.、Winters Matthew S.、Kohno Masaru
    • Journal Title

      The Review of International Organizations

      Volume: x

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11558-024-09534-7

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 実証国際政治学ーパワー分布と戦争発生ー2024

    • Author(s)
      広瀬健太郎
    • Journal Title

      国際地域学の課題

      Volume: x Pages: 148-156

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Cross-National Survey on Nuclear Disarmament Issues: South Korea and Australia 2023 Web Survey2023

    • Author(s)
      Shibai, Kiyohisa
    • Journal Title

      ISM Survey Research Report

      Volume: 124

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] A survey inquiry into behavioral foundations of hate speech regulations: evidence from Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      Hirose Kentaro、Kim Hae、Kohno Masaru
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Political Science

      Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Pages: 101-117

    • DOI

      10.1017/s146810992300004x

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] A Note on Meta Research Design for International Survey and Data Analysis of Nuclear Disarmament2022

    • Author(s)
      芝井 清久
    • Journal Title

      Bulletin of Data Analysis of Japanese Classification Society

      Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Pages: 37-50

    • DOI

      10.32146/bdajcs.11.37

    • ISSN
      2186-4195, 2434-3382
    • Year and Date
      2022-08-01
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The power of corporate control in the global ownership network2020

    • Author(s)
      Takayuki Mizuno, Shohei Doi, and Shuhei Kurizaki
    • Journal Title

      PLoS One

      Volume: 15 (8) Issue: 8 Pages: e0237862-e0237862

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0237862

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Theoretical Conditions to Reach Peaceful Denuclearization in Unequal Nuclear Rivalries2023

    • Author(s)
      Kiyohisa Shibai
    • Organizer
      International Studies Association Asia-Pacific Tokyo Conference 2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] First Mover Disadvantage in Unequal Nuclear Rivalry: Negotiation Model of North Korean Peaceful Denuclearization2023

    • Author(s)
      芝井清久
    • Organizer
      政治社会学会第14回研究大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Nuclear Disarmament Negotiation in Unequal Nuclear Force Situation2022

    • Author(s)
      Shibai, Kiyohisa
    • Organizer
      Annual Meeting of American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 核問題における日本・広島長崎・米国の世論のデータ分析: 核軍縮、核抑止、IAEA査察2022

    • Author(s)
      芝井清久
    • Organizer
      日本国際政治学会研究大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 核軍縮・核抑止・IAEA査察における日米世論の比較分析2022

    • Author(s)
      芝井清久
    • Organizer
      日本行動計量学会第50回研究大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 被爆国と核保有国の意識の違いと核兵器への誘因: 日本・広島長崎・アメリカの核問題に関する世論の比較分析2022

    • Author(s)
      芝井清久
    • Organizer
      日本軍縮学会 2022年度研究大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Public Support for Donor Control of Foreign Aid in Aid-Receiving Countries.2022

    • Author(s)
      Gabriella R. Montinola, Kentaro Hirose, Matthew S. Winters, Masaru Kohno
    • Organizer
      Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Leadership Targeting in Nuclear Deterrence Theory2022

    • Author(s)
      Shuhei Kurizaki
    • Organizer
      Revisiting Nuclear Ethics
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] グローバル株所有ネットワークにおける投資家と悪徳企業との繋がり2021

    • Author(s)
      水野貴之, 土井翔平, 土屋貴裕, 栗崎周平
    • Organizer
      計算社会科学研究会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 敵基地攻撃能力の抑止力とコミットメント問題2021

    • Author(s)
      栗崎周平, 本山功
    • Organizer
      ゲーム理論ワークショップ2021
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Socially Responsible Investing in the Global Ownership Network and its implications for International Security2020

    • Author(s)
      Takayuki Mizuno, Shohei Doi, Takahiro Tsuchiya, Shuhei Kurizaki
    • Organizer
      Complex Networks
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Socially Responsible Investing in the Global Ownership Network2020

    • Author(s)
      Takayuki Mizuno, Shohei Doi, Takahiro Tsuchiya, Shuhei Kurizaki
    • Organizer
      Conference on Complex Systems 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] How does China's Corporate Control on Hong Kong Affect Third-party Countries?2020

    • Author(s)
      Shohei Doi, Shuhei Kurizaki, Takayuki Mizuno
    • Organizer
      IC2S2 2020
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 株式ネットワークにおける香港問題の波及効果2020

    • Author(s)
      土井翔平, 水野貴之, 栗崎周平
    • Organizer
      人工知能学会(第34回)
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] OSINTによる複雑な金融商品を通じた大量破壊兵器へのお金の流れの把握2020

    • Author(s)
      水野貴之, 土井翔平, 栗崎周平, 土屋貴裕
    • Organizer
      明治大学MIMS共同研究集会「Data-driven Mathematical sciences:経済物理学とその周辺」
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] SNSに広がる米中の分極化とエコーチェンバー - コロナは米中を分極化させたか?2020

    • Author(s)
      水野貴之, 土井翔平, 栗崎周平, 豊田正史
    • Organizer
      明治大学MIMS共同研究集会「Data-driven Mathematical sciences:経済物理学とその周辺」
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 新たな安全保障問題としての ESG 投資ジレンマ: グローバルな株保有ネットワークの分析2020

    • Author(s)
      土井 翔平、栗崎 周平
    • Organizer
      日本国際政治学会 2020 年度研究大会
    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report

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Published: 2019-07-04   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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