Predictability analysis of explosive cyclones using ensemble assimilation data and an atmospheric general circulation model

• Project/Area Number: 21740348
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: YOSHIDA Akira (YOSHIDA KUWANO Akira) 独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球シミュレータセンター, 研究員 (90392969)
• Project Period (FY): 2009 – 2011
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000); Fiscal Year 2010: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2009: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
• Keywords: アンサンブル予報 / データ同化 / 予測可能性 / 爆弾低気圧 / THORPEX / 大気大循環モデル / アンサンブル / アンサンブルカルマンフィルタ / 気象予測 / アンサンブルカルマンフィルター / TIIORPEX

Research Abstract

We analyzed predictability and its mechanism of explosive cyclones around Japan using an ensemble reanalysis data involving model and analysis error information. The explosive cyclones developed over the Sea of Japan tend to be predicted further northward than analysis, while those developed over the northwestern Pacific Ocean tend to be underestimated cyclone deepening with large analysis spread. The difference is due to major process of cyclone development influenced by large-scale environment.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models : the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison(GPCI) (2012)
  • Author(s): Teixeira, J.
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: 24 Issue: 20 Pages: 5223-5256
  • DOI: 10.1175/2011jcli3672.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Dependence of the climatological axial latitudes of the tropospheric westerlies and storm tracks on the latitude of an extratropical oceanic front (2012)
  • Author(s): Ogawa, F
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 39 Issue: 5
  • DOI: 10.1029/2011gl049922
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Seasonal evolutions of atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone : Observations and a coupled model simulation (2012)
  • Author(s): Taguchi, B
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: 25 Issue: 1 Pages: 111-139
  • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00046.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 大気・海洋結合大循環モデルCFESの紹介.特集『地球科学における流体現象2～地球表層編～』 (2011)
  • Author(s): 大淵済
  • Journal Title: ながれ Volume: 30 Pages: 369-375
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] An improved PDF cloud scheme for climate simulations (2010)
  • Author(s): Kuwano-Yoshida, A., T. Enomoto and W. Ohfuchi
  • Journal Title: Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society Volume: 136 Issue: 651 Pages: 1583-1597
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.660
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Precipitation response to the Gulf Stream in an atmospheric GCM (2010)
  • Author(s): Kuwano-Yoshida, A., A., S. Minobe, and S. P. Xie
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: 23 Issue: 13 Pages: 3676-3698
  • DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3261.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] An improved PDF cloud scheme for climate simulations (2010)
  • Author(s): Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
  • Journal Title: Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society Volume: 136 Pages: 1583-1597
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Precipitation response to the Gulf Stream in an atmospheric GCM (2010)
  • Author(s): Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate (印刷中)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream : Seasonal variations (2010)
  • Author(s): Shoshiro Minobe
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate (印刷中)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Air-sea heat exchanges characteristic of a prominent midlatitude oceanic front in the South lndian Ocean as simulated in a high-resolution coupled GCM (2009)
  • Author(s): Masami Nonaka
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate VOL.22 Pages: 6515-6535
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Dependence of the axes of tropospheric westerlies and stormtracks on the latitude of an extratropical oceanic front as revealed from idealized AGCM experiments (2012)
  • Author(s): Ogawa, F
  • Organizer: 2012 Ocean Sciences Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Salt Palace Convention Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
  • Year and Date: 2012-02-20
• [Presentation] Coupling coefficients around the mid-latitude SST fronts in a coupled a tmosphere-ocean and a stand-alone atmospheric GCMs (2012)
  • Author(s): Komori, N
  • Organizer: 2012 Ocean Sciences Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Salt Palace Convention Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
  • Year and Date: 2012-02-20
• [Presentation] Rainband in the East China Sea sustained by the warm sea surface temperature of the Kuroshio (2012)
  • Author(s): Miyama, T
  • Organizer: 2012 Ocean Sciences Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Salt Palace Convention Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
  • Year and Date: 2012-02-20
• [Presentation] Deep oceanic zonal jets constrained by fine-scale wind stress curls in the South Pacific Ocean : A high-resolution coupled GCM study (2011)
  • Author(s): Taguchi, B
  • Organizer: 2012 AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Moscone Center, San Francisco, California, USA
  • Year and Date: 2011-12-08
• [Presentation] Baiu rainband termination in AFES and CFES (2011)
  • Author(s): Kuwano-Yoshida, A
  • Organizer: 4th OFES International Workshop and 2nd ESC-IPRC Joint Workshop on Computationally-Intensive Modeling of the Climate System
  • Place of Presentation: East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
  • Year and Date: 2011-12-02
• [Presentation] 暖候期北西太平洋域における雲・降水活動の季節進行 (2011)
  • Author(s): 佐藤大卓
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2011年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋大学
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-18
• [Presentation] Coupling coefficients around the mid-latitude SST fronts in a coupled a tmosphere-ocean and a stand-alone atmospheric GCMs (2011)
  • Author(s): Komori, N
  • Organizer: WCRP Open Science Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel, Denver, CO, USA
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-26
• [Presentation] Seasonal evolutions of atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone : Observations and a coupled model simulation (2011)
  • Author(s): Taguchi, B
  • Organizer: PICES 2011 Annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Khabarovsk's Official Reception House, Khabarovsk, Russia
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-19
• [Presentation] ALERA2 : AFES-LETKF ensemble reanalysis 2 (2011)
  • Author(s): Enomoto, T
  • Organizer: AOGS 8th Annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Taipei International Convention Centre, Taiwan
  • Year and Date: 2011-08-08
• [Presentation] Predictabiliy analysis of explosive cyclones in the North Pacific storm track using an ensemble reanalysis data (2011)
  • Author(s): Kuwano-Yoshida, A., and T. Enomoto
  • Organizer: XXV IUGG General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Melbourne, Australia
  • Year and Date: 2011-07-02
• [Presentation] Predictabiliy analysis of explosive cyclones in the North Pacific storm track using an ensemble reanalysis data (2011)
  • Author(s): Kuwano-Yoshida, A
  • Organizer: XXV IUGG General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre, Melbourne, Australia
  • Year and Date: 2011-07-02
• [Presentation] Deep oceanic zonal jets constrained by fine-scale wind stress curls in the South Pacific Ocean : A high-resolution coupled GCM study (2011)
  • Author(s): Taguchi, B
  • Organizer: XXV IUGG General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre, Melbourne, Australia
  • Year and Date: 2011-07-01
• [Presentation] Seasonal evolutions of atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone : Observations and a coupled model simulation (2011)
  • Author(s): Taguchi, B
  • Organizer: XXV IUGG General Assembly
  • Place of Presentation: Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre, Melbourne, Australia
  • Year and Date: 2011-06-29
• [Presentation] "Coupling coefficients" around the mid-latitude SST fronts in a coupled atmosphere-ocean and a stand-alone atmospheric GCMs (2010)
  • Author(s): Nobumasa Komori
  • Organizer: 3^<rd> OFES international workshop
  • Place of Presentation: 海洋研究開発機構横浜研究所(横浜市)
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-05
• [Presentation] Deep oceanic zonal jets driven by fine-scale wind stress curls in a high-resolution coupled GCM (2010)
  • Author(s): Bunmei Taguchi
  • Organizer: 3^<rd> OFES international workshop
  • Place of Presentation: 海洋研究開発機構横浜研究所(横浜市)
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-05
• [Presentation] Emanuel対流スキームへの可変エントレインメント率の適用 (2010)
  • Author(s): 吉田聡,榎本剛,大淵済
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-29
• [Presentation] 大気海洋結合モデルにおける中緯度海面水温前線域での結合係数 (2010)
  • Author(s): 小守信正
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都テルサ(京都市)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-29
• [Presentation] Emanuel対流スキームへの可変エントレインメント率の適用 (2010)
  • Author(s): 吉田聡
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都テルサ(京都市)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-29
• [Presentation] 更新された地球シミュレータ上でのアンサンブル全球大気データ同化システムの構築 (2010)
  • Author(s): 榎本剛,三好建正,茂木耕作,吉田聡,山根省三:
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-27
• [Presentation] 更新された地球シミュレータ上でのアンサンブル全球大気データ同化システムの構築 (2010)
  • Author(s): 榎本剛
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都テルサ(京都市)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-27
• [Presentation] 大気海洋結合モデルにおける中緯度海面水温前線域での結合係数 (2010)
  • Author(s): 小守信正
  • Organizer: 日本海洋学会2010年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京農業大学生物産業学部(網走市)
  • Year and Date: 2010-09-07
• [Presentation] 風応力カールの微細な構造で強制された海洋ジェット-高解像度大気海洋結合モデルによる研究- (2010)
  • Author(s): 田口文明
  • Organizer: 日本海洋学会2010年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京農業大学生物産業学部(網走市)
  • Year and Date: 2010-09-07
• [Presentation] Tornado potential associated with typhoon Shanshan in 2006 estimated from global ensemble simulation (2010)
  • Author(s): Enomoto, T., and A. Kuwano-Yoshida
  • Organizer: Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting 2010
  • Place of Presentation: Taipei, Taiwan
  • Year and Date: 2010-06-24
• [Presentation] Tornado potential associated with typhoon Shanshan in 2006 estimated from global ensemble simulation (2010)
  • Author(s): Takeshi Enomoto
  • Organizer: 2010 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Taipei international convention center(台北市、台湾)
  • Year and Date: 2010-06-24
• [Presentation] アンサンブル再解析データを用いた爆弾低気圧の予測精度検証 (2010)
  • Author(s): 吉田聡,榎本剛
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010年度春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-25
• [Presentation] アンザンブル再解析データを用いた爆弾低気圧の予測精度検証 (2010)
  • Author(s): 吉田聡
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010年度春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター(東京都渋谷区)
  • Year and Date: 2010-05-25
• [Presentation] 高解像度大気海洋結合モデルで再現された南インド洋海洋前線帯とストームトラック (2010)
  • Author(s): 中村尚
  • Organizer: 2010年度日本海洋学会春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京海洋大学(東京都品川区)
  • Year and Date: 2010-03-27
• [Presentation] Influence of midlatitude oceans on the formation of storm-tracks and westerly jets and on their variability (2010)
  • Author(s): Hisashi Nakamura
  • Organizer: 2010 Ocean Sciences Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Oregon Convention Center(ポートランド、米国)
  • Year and Date: 2010-02-25
• [Presentation] Atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream : Seasonal variations (2010)
  • Author(s): Shoshiro Minobe
  • Organizer: 2010 Ocean Sciences Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Oregon Convention Center(ポートランド、米国)
  • Year and Date: 2010-02-25
• [Presentation] Atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies confined within the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone in a coupled model simulation (2010)
  • Author(s): Bunmei Taguchi
  • Organizer: 2010 Ocean Sciences Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Oregon Convention Center(ポートランド、米国)
  • Year and Date: 2010-02-23
• [Presentation] A high-resolution simulation of the global coupled atmosphere-ocean system using CFES (2010)
  • Author(s): Nobumasa Komori
  • Organizer: 2010 Ocean Sciences Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Oregon Convention Center(ポートランド、米国)
  • Year and Date: 2010-02-23
• [Presentation] AFESにおけるメキシコ湾流SST勾配に対する降水応答 (2009)
  • Author(s): 吉田聡,見延庄士郎,謝尚平
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] 全球静力学雲解像非斉一結合モデルの開発 (2009)
  • Author(s): 前島康光,榎本剛,吉田聡,榊原篤志,坪木和久
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] AFESにおけるメキシコ湾流SST勾配に対する降水応答 (2009)
  • Author(s): 吉田聡
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: アクロス福岡(福岡市)
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] CFESによる高解像度大気海洋結合シミュレーション(IV) (2009)
  • Author(s): 小守信正
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: アクロス福岡(福岡市)
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] 全球静力学-雲解像非斉-結合モデルの開発 (2009)
  • Author(s): 前島康光
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: アクロス福岡(福岡市)
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] 中緯度SST勾配が移動性擾乱活動に与える影響 (2009)
  • Author(s): 小川史明
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: アクロス福岡(福岡市)
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] 北太平洋亜寒帯前線域に集中する十年規模海面水温偏差とその大気への影響-中解像度大気海洋結合モデルによる研究 (2009)
  • Author(s): 田口文明
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2009年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: アクロス福岡(福岡市)
  • Year and Date: 2009-11-25
• [Presentation] 北太平洋亜寒帯前線域に集中する十年規模海面水温偏差とその大気への影響-中解像度大気海洋結合モデルによる研究 (2009)
  • Author(s): 田口文明
  • Organizer: 2009年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学(京都市)
  • Year and Date: 2009-09-26
• [Presentation] CFESによる高解像度大気海洋結合シミュレーション(IV) (2009)
  • Author(s): 小守信正
  • Organizer: 2009年度日本海洋学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学(京都市)
  • Year and Date: 2009-09-25
• [Presentation] Atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream in an AGCM (2009)
  • Author(s): Kuwano-Yoshida, A. S. Minobe and S.-P. Xie
  • Organizer: IAMAS/IAPSO/IACS Joint Assembly 2009(MOCA-09)
  • Place of Presentation: Montreal, Canada
  • Year and Date: 2009-07-24
• [Presentation] Atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream in an AGCM (2009)
  • Author(s): Akira Kuwano-Yoshida
  • Organizer: IAMAS/IAPSO/IACS Joint Assembly 2009 (MOCA-09)
  • Place of Presentation: Palais des congres de Montreal(モントリオール、カナダ)
  • Year and Date: 2009-07-24
• [Presentation] Interannual variability as simulated in a global high-resolution coupled atmosnhere-ocean GCM (2009)
  • Author(s): Nobumasa Komori
  • Organizer: IAMAS/IAPSO/IACS Joint Assembly 2009 (MOCA-09)
  • Place of Presentation: Palais des congres de Montreal(モントリオール、カナダ)
  • Year and Date: 2009-07-24
• [Presentation] Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere and its relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (2009)
  • Author(s): Shoshiro Minobe
  • Organizer: IAMAS/IAPSO/IACS Joint Assembly 2009 (MOCA-09)
  • Place of Presentation: Palais des congres de Montreal(モントリオール、カナダ)
  • Year and Date: 2009-07-22
• [Presentation] Impact of sharp SST gradient in midlatitude on the atmospheric general circulation and its annular variability : Importance of "oceanic baroclinic adjustment" (2009)
  • Author(s): Hisashi Nakamura
  • Organizer: IAMAS/IAPSO/IACS Joint Assembly 2009 (MOCA-09)
  • Place of Presentation: Palais des congres de Montreal(モントリオール、カナダ)
  • Year and Date: 2009-07-20
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/esc/afes/oreda/index.html.ja
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/esc/afes/oreda/index.html.ja