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A study of the geographic heterogeneity of the impact of sanctuary policies on public safety

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21K20146
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

Otsu Yuki  東京大学, 空間情報科学研究センター, 講師 (50913240)

Project Period (FY) 2021-08-30 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords聖域都市政策 / 移民 / 移民政策 / 犯罪
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究の目的は、アメリカで採用されている聖域都市政策が犯罪率に及ぼす影響について、特に政策の影響が都市内部でどのように異なるか、そしてその原因を探ることである。既存研究では、聖域都市政策は犯罪率に影響しない、あるいは犯罪率を減少させる効果がみられ、その原因は地域警察と移民間の関係改善によるとされている。しかし、既存研究では、都市や郡レベルのデータを用いているため、都市内部での差異については明らかでない。移民は都市内部でも集中して居住することが多いため、移民の多いエリアほど政策の影響は大きいことが予想される。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

There is a concern that adopting a so-called sanctuary city policy that does not exclude illegal immigrants will lead to a concentration of illegal immigrants and a deterioration of public safety. On the other hand, the immigrants will no longer need to fear contact with the police and will be more likely to cooperate with investigations through eyewitness testimony and other means. This will make it easier for the police to apprehend criminals, which in turn will reduce crime. Therefore, the impact of sanctuary city policies on public safety needs to be examined using data.
The results of the city-level analysis indicated that crime did not increase in cities that adopted sanctuary city policies, and in fact, may have decreased. Analysis within sanctuary cities indicates that the impact is not uniform within cities, but is more pronounced in areas with relatively high immigrant populations.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

都市間の分析から、聖域都市政策を採用した都市において犯罪の増加は確認されず、むしろ減少する可能性があることが示された。また聖域都市内部の分析からその影響は都市内で均一でなく、相対的に移民の多いエリアでは顕著であることが示された。

Report

(4 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (3 results)

All 2024 2022 2021

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Open Access: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] The local effect of sanctuary policies on crime: Evidence from New York2024

    • Author(s)
      Yuki Otsu
    • Journal Title

      CSIS Discussion Paper

      Volume: 183

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Sanctuary cities and crime2021

    • Author(s)
      Otsu Yuki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

      Volume: 192 Pages: 600-615

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jebo.2021.10.020

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] The local effect of sanctuary policies on crime2022

    • Author(s)
      Yuki Otsu
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association 97th Annual Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

URL: 

Published: 2021-10-22   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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