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Statistical estimation of regional scale climate changes in frequencies of intense precipitation events

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22740318
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba (2011)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (2010)

Principal Investigator

WAKAZUKI Yasutaka  筑波大学, 生命環境系, 助教 (70455492)

Project Period (FY) 2010 – 2011
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Keywords気候変動 / 領域気候 / 統計手法 / 降水
Research Abstract

In this study, I developed a new probabilistic distribution function for short term precipitation amounts. The function was constructed basing on the difference of characteristic features between the weak and strong precipitations. The weak and strong precipitations were approximated by the exponential and Weibull probabilistic distribution functions, respectively. The function has mainly three parameters. A regression based statistical model was developed using objective analysis data as predictors and the three parameters as predictands. The objective analysis data was modified to be independent by the principal component analysis. A test experiment with the statistical model showed better result in the estimation of climate changes in intense precipitation frequencies. However, some problems in details of the techniques remain.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2011 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2010 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2011 2010

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] New distribution functions for hourly and daily precipitation intensities during snowless season in Japan2011

    • Author(s)
      Wakazuki Y
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

      Volume: 89 Pages: 29-45

    • NAID

      130004435122

    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report 2010 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 統計的ダウンスケーリングによる強雨頻度推定に関する研究2011

    • Author(s)
      若月泰孝
    • Organizer
      第2回極端気象現象とその影響評価に関する研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-02
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 統計的ダウンズゲーリングによる強雨頻度推定に関する研究2011

    • Author(s)
      若月泰孝
    • Organizer
      第2回極端気象現象とその影響評価に関する研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-02
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 領域スケールの強雨頻度の気候変化推定に関する研究2010

    • Author(s)
      若月泰孝,原政之,木村富士男
    • Organizer
      水文・水資源学会
    • Place of Presentation
      法政大学市ヶ谷キャンパス
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-08
    • Related Report
      2011 Final Research Report 2010 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2010-08-23   Modified: 2016-04-21  

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