| Project/Area Number |
23240039
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
OGATA Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 名誉教授 (70000213)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
ZHUANG Jiancang 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 准教授 (70465920)
KATO Shogo 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 助教 (60468535)
MATSU'URA Mitsuhiro 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 特任教授/外来研究員 (00114645)
SUGAYA Katsunori 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所 (40598661)
TODA Shinji 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (80313047)
TSURUOKA Hirosi 東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (10280562)
IWATA Takaki 早稲田大学, 国際教養学術院, 助教/情報 (30418991)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011-04-01 – 2014-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥41,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥32,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥9,630,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥13,000,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,000,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥15,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥11,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,510,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥13,520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,120,000)
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| Keywords | 点過程モデリング / 時空間ETASモデル / 時空間ＢＰＴモデル / 前震の確率予測 / 余震の直後確率予測 / 非定常ETASモデル / 群発地震 / 繰り返し地震 / 時空間ＥＴＡＳモデル / 東北地方太平洋沖地震 / ベイズ的非定常ETASモデル / スプライン型時空間BPTモデル / 確率予測の評価方式 |
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| Research Abstract |
(1) We have completed beta version of the software of Bayesian models, such as hierarchical space-time ETAS models, which can be adapted to regional characteristics of seismic activity. Some programs have been provided for prediction experiment in California (UCERF3). (2) Research for real-time prediction of the probability of aftershocks within one day after the mainshock has been successful. (3) We have empirically demonstrated that predicting the probability of a major earthquake based on statistical discrimination of foreshocks. (4) We have developed a non-stationary BPT model for analyzing repeating earthquakes to visualize the space-time variation of stress changes on the plate boundary beneath the seafloor. (5) We have developed a non-stationary ETAS model to capture the pore fluid pressure changes on the faults from the earthquake swarm data.
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