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Statistical Inference of Stochastic Copulas and Their Application to Finance

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23530250
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic statistics
Research InstitutionHitotsubashi University

Principal Investigator

NOBUHIRO Nakamura  一橋大学, 大学院国際企業戦略研究科, 教授 (90323899)

Project Period (FY) 2011 – 2013
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords確率的裾依存性コピュラ / 確率的ヴァインコピュラ / 粒子フィルター法 / CVaR最小化 / レバレッジ付き確率ボラティリティ / テールリスク・パリティ / 動的条件付きコピュラ / ボラティリティ・パズル / 多変量ファクター確率ボラティリティ / MCMC
Research Abstract

We find out that the particle filtering technique is an effective method for statistical inference of stochastic copulas with time-varying dependence structure. As financial applications we have developed copula-based stochastic volatility(SV) model, multi-variate SV model,stochastic vein copula model, and so on. Furthermore, we have proposed new types of portfolio optimization based on the tail-risk parity/budgeting approach.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (28 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (11 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (17 results)

  • [Journal Article] Tail Risk Parity/Budgeting Investment: Copula Approach to Tail Dependence Structure2014

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 40-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: 2013:Winter Pages: 43-54

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Tail Risk Parity/Budgeting Investment : Copula Approach to Tail Dependence Structure2013

    • Author(s)
      Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 40-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Winter Pages: 43-54

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Dynamic Conditional Copula with Marginal Volatility Dependence2013

    • Author(s)
      Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 39-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Summer Pages: 41-52

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Dynamic Conditional Copula with Marginal Volatility Dependence2013

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 39-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: 2013:Summer Pages: 41-52

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Stochastic Vine Copula -Particle Filtering Approach-2012

    • Author(s)
      Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 38-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Winter Pages: 100-111

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Modeling and Estimation of Pairs Trading Dynamics using Stochastic Volatility Model and Bayesian Inference2012

    • Author(s)
      Nazir Napoleon and Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 37-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Summer Pages: 194-205

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Modeling and Estimation of Pairs Trading Dynamics using Stochastic Volatility Model and Bayesian Inference2012

    • Author(s)
      Nazir Napoleon and Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 36-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Summer Pages: 194-205

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Stochastic Vine Copula -Particle Filtering Approach-2012

    • Author(s)
      Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 37-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Winter Pages: 100-111

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Dynamic Factor Stochastic Volatility Models with Idiosyncratic Stochastic Volatilities -Particle Filtering Approach-2011

    • Author(s)
      Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 36-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Winter Pages: 59-70

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Copula-Based Asymmetric Leverage in Stochastic Volatility Models - Particle Filtering Approach -2011

    • Author(s)
      Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Proceedings of the 35-th JAFEE meeting

      Volume: Summer Pages: 241-252

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Dynamic Investment Strategies to Reaction-Diffusion Systems Based uponStochastic Differential Utilities2011

    • Author(s)
      Kashiwabara,Akira and Nobuhiro Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Asia-Pacific Financial Markets

      Volume: 18-2 Issue: 2 Pages: 131-150

    • DOI

      10.1007/s10690-010-9127-z

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Tail Risk Parity/Budgeting Investment : Copula Approach to Tail Dependence Structure2014

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      慶応大学三田キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2014-01-10
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Conditional Copula with Marginal Volatility Dependence2013

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      明治大学駿河台キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-04
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Factor Stochastic Volatility Models with Idiosyncratic Stochastic Volatilities -Particle Filtering Approach-2013

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      武蔵大学江古田キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2013-06-02
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Stochastic Vine Copula -Particle Filtering Approach-2013

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学東京キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2013-01-25
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Modeling and Estimation of Pairs Trading Dynamics using Stochastic Volatility Model and Bayesian Inference2012

    • Author(s)
      Nazir Napoleon,中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      成城大学(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2012-08-04
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Factor Stochastic Volatility Models with Idiosyncratic Stochastic Volatilities -Particle Filtering Approach-2012

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学東京キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-12
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Factor Stochastic Volatility Models with Idiosyncratic Stochastic Volatilities -Particle Filtering Approach-2012

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura,Nobuhiro
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会(JAFEE)
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学(東京キャンパス)
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Copula-Based Asymmetric Leverage in Stochastic Volatility Models Particle Filtering Approach -2011

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      慶応大学三田キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-15
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Interacting Copulas via Stochastic Tail Dependence Bayesian Inference Based on a Multi-Move Sampler-2011

    • Author(s)
      野澤勇樹,中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      早稲田大学早稲田キャンパス(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-14
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Interacting Copulas via Stochastic Tail Dependence - Bayesian Inference Based on a Multi-Move Sampler-2011

    • Author(s)
      Nozawa,Yuki
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      早稲田大学
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Copula-Based Asymmetric Leverage in Stochastic Volatility Models - Particle Filtering Approach -2011

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura,Nobuhiro
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会(JAFEE)
    • Place of Presentation
      慶応義塾大学
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Conditional Copula with Marginal Volatility Dependence

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      明治大学駿河台キャンパス(東京都千代田区)
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Tail Risk Parity/Budgeting Investment: Copula Approach to Tail Dependence Structure

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      慶応大学三田キャンパス(東京都港区)
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Factor Stochastic Volatility Models with Idiosyncratic Stochastic Volatilities -Particle Filtering Approach-

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      武蔵大学(東京都練馬区)
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Copula-Based Asymmetric Leverage in Stochastic Volatility Models - Particle Filtering Approach -

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      一橋大学ICS(東京都)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Modeling and Estimation of Pairs Trading Dynamics using Stochastic Volatility Model and Bayesian Inference

    • Author(s)
      Napoleon,Nazir
    • Organizer
      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会
    • Place of Presentation
      成城大学(東京都)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Dynamic Factor Stochastic Volatility Models with Idiosyncratic Stochastic Volatilities -Particle Filtering Approach-

    • Author(s)
      中村信弘
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会
    • Place of Presentation
      武蔵大学(東京都)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report

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Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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