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A data-driven modeling approach for augmenting climate model simulations and its application to Pacific-Atlantic interbasin interactions

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23K25946
Project/Area Number (Other) 23H01250 (2023)
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund (2024)
Single-year Grants (2023)
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
Research InstitutionJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Principal Investigator

RICHTER INGO  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), グループリーダー代理 (20649470)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 東塚 知己  東京大学, 大学院理学系研究科(理学部), 准教授 (40376538)
木戸 晶一郎  国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 付加価値情報創生部門(アプリケーションラボ), 研究員 (40878394)
時長 宏樹  九州大学, 応用力学研究所, 教授 (80421890)
小坂 優  東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 准教授 (90746398)
Project Period (FY) 2023-04-01 – 2027-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
Budget Amount *help
¥18,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2026: ¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2025: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Keywordslinear inverse model / global climate model / El Nino / pacemaker experiment / interbasin interaction / ENSO / tropical Atlantic / CMIP6 / Linear Inverse Model / basin interaction / GCM experiments / Atlantic Nino
Outline of Research at the Start

This project aims to show that it is possible to reproduce aspects of global climate model simulations with a data-driven framework that requires only a fraction of the computational cost. This technique will be used to better understand the interaction between the tropical Atlantic and El Nino.

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

The targets set for fiscal year 2023 were all achieved. The coupled ocean-atmosphere control simulations with two global climate models were successfully performed and linear inverse models (LIMs) were constructed based on the model output. In addition, we have already started to construct LIMs from a large publicly available multi-model archive, which was originally planned to begin in fiscal year 2025. We have also performed more than 100 years of a pacemaker experiment in which the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic are restored to those of the freely coupled control simulation. This pacemaker experiment was originally planned for fiscal year 2024.
The impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on the tropical Atlantic has been analyzed and the results have been presented at several international and domestic workshops and conferences, including the Ocean Sciences Meeting in New Orleans, USA. A manuscript has been prepared and is currently under review at the Journal of Climate.
As planned in the research proposal, we have invited the international collaborator, Ping Chang from Texas A&M University, USA, to visit the PI’s institute. We used this opportunity to organize a small workshop with participants from several research institutions in Japan, and we also held an organizational meeting for the Kakenhi research project.
The PI has also published a paper on statistical forecast correction in Monthly Weather Review.
Overall, the activities in fiscal year 2023 were successful in laying the groundwork for the overarching goals of the research project.

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.

Reason

The research activities are currently somewhat ahead of schedule compared to what was set out in the research proposal. In particular constructing LIMs for a large multi-model database has already been completed and a first evaluation has been performed. This activity was originally planned for fiscal year 2025. Moreover, the Atlantic pacemaker experiment planned for fiscal year 2024 was already started in fiscal year 2023 and has produced over 100 years of output. In addition, holding a one-day workshop was an activity that went above the initial research plan.
The manuscript on the influence of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on the tropical Atlantic took a bit longer to write than originally envisioned but we were nevertheless able to complete this task during fiscal year 2023.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

Given the smooth progress in the first year, we will continue to follow the research plan as set out in the research proposal. Atlantic pacemaker experiments have already been performed with one global climate model (the GFDL CM 2.1). In fiscal year 2024 we will also perform such an experiment with the other global climate model, the CESM2. These simulations will be performed by the international collaborator at Texas A&M University. The corresponding LIM experiments will be performed, and we will evaluate to what extent the LIM can reproduce the model behavior. Based on the outcome of this analysis we aim to write a manuscript and submit it to an international peer-reviewed journal. We are also planning to hold an in-person group meeting, possibly in connection with a one-day workshop, as we did in fiscal year 2023.

Report

(1 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (21 results)

All 2024 2023 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Open Access: 3 results) Presentation (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 14 results,  Invited: 1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Texas A&M University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] A Simple Statistical Postprocessing Scheme for Enhancing the Skill of Seasonal SST Predictions in the Tropics2024

    • Author(s)
      Richter Ingo、Ratnam Jayanthi V.、Martineau Patrick、Oettli Pascal、Doi Takeshi、Ogata Tomomichi、Kataoka Takahito、Counillon Fran?ois
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 152 Issue: 4 Pages: 1039-1056

    • DOI

      10.1175/mwr-d-23-0266.1

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Non-ENSO Precursors for Northwestern Pacific Summer Monsoon Variability with Implications for Predictability2024

    • Author(s)
      Zhang Pengcheng、Xie Shang-Ping、Kosaka Yu、Lutsko Nicholas J.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 37 Issue: 1 Pages: 199-212

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-23-0169.1

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Future changes in the wintertime ENSO-NAO teleconnection under greenhouse warming2024

    • Author(s)
      Geng Xin、Kug Jong-Seong、Kosaka Yu
    • Journal Title

      npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

      Volume: 7 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-12

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41612-024-00627-z

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric teleconnections are intensified by extratropical ocean-atmosphere coupling2024

    • Author(s)
      Mori Masato、Kosaka Yu、Taguchi Bunmei、Tokinaga Hiroki、Tatebe Hiroaki、Nakamura Hisashi
    • Journal Title

      Communications Earth & Environment

      Volume: 5 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-16

    • DOI

      10.1038/s43247-024-01282-1

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Tropical Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillations Leading to Sea Level Extremes in Coastal Indonesia during Recent Decades2024

    • Author(s)
      Kamp William、Han Weiqing、Zhang Lei、Kido Shoichiro、McCreary Julian P.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 37 Issue: 9 Pages: 2867-2880

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-23-0374.1

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the inconsistent relation between ENSO and the equatorial Atlantic2024

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Shoichiro Kido, Tomoki Tozuka, Hiroki Tokinaga, Yu Kosaka, Ping Chang
    • Organizer
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2024
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Influences from outside of the tropics explain recent Walker circulation strengthening2024

    • Author(s)
      M. Toda, Y. Kosaka, A. Miyamoto, and M. Watanabe
    • Organizer
      Ocean Sciences Meeting 2024
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the equatorial Atlantic2023

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter
    • Organizer
      12th International Conference on Tropical Marine Environmental Changes
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Toward quantifying the tropical Atlantic influence on ENSO2023

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Hiroki Tokinaga, Yu Kosaka, Shoichiro Kido
    • Organizer
      APL-ICAR Workshop
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the tropical Atlantic2023

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Atlantic Variability and Tropical Basin Interactions at Interannual to Multi-decadal Timescales: Mechanisms, Drivers and Impacts
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Evaluating inter-basin linkages with GCMs and LIMs2023

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter, Yu Kosaka, Hiroki Tokinaga, Shoichiro Kido, Ping Chang
    • Organizer
      CLIVAR/TBI Science Meeting
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the equatorial Atlantic2023

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter
    • Organizer
      APL-CMCC-ACCESS Workshop
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Revisiting the inconsistent influence of ENSO on the equatorial Atlantic2023

    • Author(s)
      Ingo Richter
    • Organizer
      Workshop on interbasin interactions and predictability in the tropics
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] A study on the role of air-sea coupling in interbasin interactions between tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans using linear inverse models2023

    • Author(s)
      Ziyu Ye, Shoichiro Kido, and Tomoki Tozuka
    • Organizer
      Workshop on interbasin interactions and predictability in the tropics
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Modulations of the Northern Annular Mode under global warming2023

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kosaka, K. Usui, T. Kawamura, S. Okajima, A. Miyamoto, S. Sekizawa, M. Toda, and H. Nakamura
    • Organizer
      SENTAN-Foresight Workshop on Tropical Climate Variability
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The extratropical pacemaker effect on tropical Pacific climate variability2023

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kosaka, M. Toda, A. Miyamoto, and M. Watanabe
    • Organizer
      IUGG 2023 General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Modulations of the Northern Annular Mode under global warming2023

    • Author(s)
      Y. Kosaka, T. Kawamura, K. Usui, S. Okajima, A. Miyamoto, S. Sekizawa, M. Toda, and H. Nakamura
    • Organizer
      Workshop on interbasin interactions and predictability in the tropics
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Future changes in tropical cyclone activity during the summer to fall season following El Nino2023

    • Author(s)
      Hiroki Tokinaga, Kotaro Hara, Masato Mori
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Western Pacific teleconnection-induced East Asian warm winter during El Nino: Role of the Indian Ocean warming2023

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro SHIOZAKI, Hiroki TOKINAGA, Masato MORI
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Future changes in tropical cyclone activity during the following summer-fall season of El Nino2023

    • Author(s)
      Hiroki Tokinaga, Kotaro Hara, Masato Mori
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2023-04-18   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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